WhoDeyRevolution

Carson Palmer: Give Him Another Chance, TO (and others) Dragged Him Down

If we got nothing else out of this season, I hoped at least we'd find out once and for all whether or not Carson could be the QB he was in 2005 (or close enough to it).  Turned out we didn't even come away with that information.  The premise was this:

1. Carson finally would be healed of whatever the hell that elbow injury actually was in 2008 (check, I think)
2. Carson finally would have a decent offensive line to block for him (check, ranked 7th in pass protection by Football Outsiders, Whitworth ranked 2nd best left tackle in all of football by PFF)
3. Carson finally would have talented pass catchers to throw to (check, see Owens, Terrell; Gresham, Jermaine; and Shipley, Jordan)

Therefore, if Carson had a poor year it could only be his own fault given the talent around him.  Makes sense right?  Wrong.  I no longer believe you can say that for a couple of reasons.

First, it turns out TOs apparent production was merely a statistical mirage and that he had a profound negative effect on Carson and the whole offense.  Consider these points from the Any Given Sunday column Football Outsiders wrote for ESPN on the Chargers game:

The duo of Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell combined for 10 catches, 211 yards and two touchdowns on 12 targets. Their success makes it clear: The Owens signing was a disaster for Cincinnati.

That may sound strange considering Owens leads the team in catches, yards and touchdowns, but he's also been the target on 67 incomplete passes, tied for second in the league.  Even worse, 12 of Palmer's 18 interceptions (including three pick-sixes) came on passes intended for Owens. Owens has produced a lot of big plays and touchdowns, but Palmer has been much more efficient throwing to the team's other wide receivers.

Holy shit what an indictment!

It puts TOs season in perfect context:  at first glance it looked allright but something always seemed fishy...as if his production came at the expenses of the rest of the offense.  Now this verifies it.  For those scoring at home that means Carson had a 60.3 passer rating when targeting TO...that would beat out only Jimmy Clausen of this year's QBs.  Let's look at this more.

Week 2: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

The Good:

1. Zimmer. Glad to see he didn't pull a Breshnahan again this week. He clearly won the chess match yesterday, and the players executed his plan perfectly. 

2. Geno Atkins (#97) & Pat Sims (#90). Any time Flacco dropped back to pass, at least one of these two guys were collapsing the pocket and forcing Flacco to hurry his throws. Everyone in the media is always fascinated by the glamorous sack stat. Don't fall for it.

For example, Hob clings to the sack stats when defending the actually terrible 2007 Bengal's OL which caused Palmer to learn some bad habits that he is still trying to work through. It is pressure that really effects the opponents QB efficiency rating by forcing the QB to hurry and make poor decisions. No pressure the first week = Brady 120.9 with a 71.4% completion percentage (seemed like 95% while watching the game). Constant pressure from the front four this Sunday = Flacco 23.8 with a 43.6% completion rate and four INT's. According to the NFL stats, no Bengal defensive player recorded a single sack against the Ravens. I would be perfectly happy if this team doesn't get another sack the rest of the season, as long as they produce like they did Sunday.

3. Bengals OL. It wasn't pretty, but they managed to give Palmer the time and space he needs. Even with the rotating timeshare at RT, they picked up almost every blitz package and stunt the Ravens threw at them. Roland held his own against Suggs for the most part, which is a very difficult thing to accomplish. Personally, I think the RT timeshare is as cheesy in football as it is in real estate, and Smith has to take over the position to solidify the OL at some point.

The Bad:

1. Palmer. He had the time and space and he couldn't take advantage of it. His poor performance yesterday made this game a nail biter when it shouldn't have been even close. The mistakes made Sunday are the remaining scars of the years of abuse he took behind a sub-par OL from 2006 to 2008. Unfortunately, his recovery is a work in progress and it will take time to work these things out since they are mostly mental. The throwing errors we are seeing are most likely from Palmer still feeling like he needs to force his throws to avoid being hit. His passes are either too early, too late, or off target because of this.

The good news is that his mechanics and footwork have improved dramatically compared to the previous two seasons, but his read and reaction skills are still a few steps behind. Does this mean Palmer is done? In this case, we have to ask WWLD? I think Lando would recommend the same treatment that he recommended while his men are getting blown to hell: "we have to give him more time." He just needs to learn to relax and play football again, and I expect that we will see Palmer work out these mistakes as the season goes on if the OL can continue to give him the security he needs in the pocket. If the OL continues to provide space for him and he doesn't improve, then yes he is done. So the jury is still out.

2. Batman and Robin's hands. Johnson has never been good at catching a ball while running toward the interior of the field, and this weakness was showcased Sunday with several dropped balls. TO had one or two catchable TD passes and he couldn't bring them in. From the past two weeks only, it seems like if you can cover TO tight, he can't concentrate on catching the ball. TO's decrease in speed doesn't help out in this department either. I still believe he would be better in the slot than as the #2 since he would have more favorable personnel match ups and routes that get him open by taking advantage of the seams in the zones and exploit his ability to get some YAC's like we witnessed against the Ravens. 

3. Gresham's blocking. I wrote at the end of the preseason that we would see Benson get blown up a couple of times while running the stretch play because of his inexperience. However, Bratkowski continues to test Gresham's improvement at the most inconvenient times. There were a couple of 3rd and short plays where they ran toward Gresham's side; almost every time he whiffed and Benson was blown up. They either need to: a) stop calling this play on third and short; b) teach the kid to block aggressively really quick; or c) fire Bratkowski.

The Ugly:

You know what?  This deserves it's own post.

 

While We're Talking TJ and Our Wide Receivers...

In my recent reading I discovered that those who more heavily favor data driven and evidence based analysis really dislike the odds of TO producing much as a receiver going forward.  Here they are:

Football Outsiders - article 1

Football Outsiders - article 2

James Walker versus KC Joyner

In particular, they note his declining statistics, that only Jerry Rice really produced at his age, and that Dallas had to use gimmicks to get TO open as he could no longer get separation in more recent years.

Hmmm...all I can say is that if you believe your eyes he still looks like he has #1 type skills as of this preseason.  James Walker, bless him, defends the move to the bitter end using pretty reasonable arguments.

Regardless, I sure wish we had worked with TJ while he was still under contract.  If anyone can provide an informed history as to what happened with TJ and why we didn't work to extend him while he was under contract as we did with Chad I would love to see that in the comments.  I'm gonna make it a research project myself.

Mike Brown's Compassion for T.O. vs. Hamilton County Taxpayers

As Joe Reedy reported on Monday, Mike Brown used his annual media appearance to make it very clear that the he feels that no longer feels any responsibility for working with the County to re-structure the financial mess the Stadium Fund has created for the County.  The Fund, approved by Hamilton County Taxpayers, build Paul Brown Stadium (and GABP) and continues to pay for upkeep and improvements.  Because tax receipts have not met their projections, the County is considering many options to cover the gap, from raising taxes to shifting revenue.WDR has covered this issue extensively, and instead of rehashing old arguments, scroll through these past posts. 

The quick overview is this:

• Mike Brown and his team of lawyers completely out-lawyered lead Hamilton County Commissioner Bob Bedinghaus.
• The Bengals got one of this most lucrative sweetheart stadium deals ever.
• Mike Brown then hired Bob Bedinghaus, who is still currently employed by the team as a "Director of Business Development."
• As the financial problems mounted, the Bengals did offer to make a $40M concession, though with the caveat that they could get out of the contract in 2017, or 15 years before it is supposed to expire on 2032.
• The Bengals have now pulled this offer after a non-response from Hamilton County, who have set an August 31st deadline to respond.

On Monday, Mike said that: "We made a deal with the county. We’ve lived up to it and we expect them to live up to their end of it." In yesterday's TML, Doc does a great job putting Mike Brown's recent comments about the stadium in the proper context.  WDR mostly agrees with his summary of Mike Brown, which we will further summarize thusly:

• If you know Mike Brown personally, he is generally a nice guy. 
• In his public life, however, Mike Brown often says things that make him come off as cold, without emotion and generally heartless.
• Mike Brown has surprised many by spending money on free agents this offseason, albeit ones with a history of questionable character decisions.

WDR agrees that Mr. Brown is under no legal obligation to Hamilton County or Hamilton County Taxpayers to renegotiate any part of the 1996 lease.  He got the deal he wanted and we are on the hook.  But for a team struggling to sell tickets coming off a division championship,it might help for Mr. Brown to display some of that compassion he shows for players with character issues to Hamilton County taxpayers.  Mr. Brown has cited his warm heart as a leading reason for bringing in guys like Matt and Pacman Jones.  Perhaps he should extend some of that good will towards Hamilton County Taxpayers who will have to deal with the deficits, potential cuts to schools/hospitals or tax hikes to pay for Mr. Brown's free stadium.