WhoDeyRevolution

KSK Fan Preview

The machinery at WDR is slowing creaking to life as the season approaches.  The friendly-yet-offensive folks at KSK reached out to us to write a few paragraphs from the fan perspective.  You can find it via this link.  We're reproducing our blurb below but check out the full preview at KSK.  

It’s strange territory for long time Bengals fans this offseason. There’s actually reason to have hope. We’re not talking about homer-based auto-hope that perpetually infects all fanbases regardless of reality each offseason. We’re talking about hope derived from a dispassionate evaluation of the actual facts. Those facts more or less consist of the following:

1. A young, talented playoff team from last year returns virtually the entire roster
2. There is excellent coaching from both the defensive and offensive coordinators (Mike Zimmer and yes, holy shit I can’t believe it either, Jay Gruden)
3. On paper, the Bengals drafted pretty well (by this we mean we were mostly pleased by the selections after the fact, which is something wholly foreign to Bengals fans post draft)
4. The Bengals did weird things like actually hire scouts, because in case you didn’t know, the Bengals don’t have those

Of course, it’s not all sunshine and farts…this is the Bengals we’re talking about. Already, top draft pick Dre Kirkpatrick suffered an injury that has him out at least the entire preseason. The schedule, which broke in an incredibly favorable way last year, should step up more than a few degrees of difficulty. There’s also the mountain of cap space the Bengals chose to sit on during free agency instead of adding players in positions of need in a year with lots of free agent depth. We understand wanting the Bengals “front office” to make moves in free agency is a fools errand because they are generally terrible at evaluating talent. However, when the outcome is either a) the player is good so hooray (no examples) or b) the player sucks and the Brown family is out a bunch of money (Antonio Bryant)…we’d prefer to see some action. More to the point, the blatant exploitation of a lack of true salary floor for profit is yet another giant middle finger from ownership to the fans. Oh and did we mention the Steelers and Ravens are always seemingly in the way?

More than any specific potential hurdles facing the Bengals this season, however, there remains a general lingering stink from 20+ years of ownership under Mike Brown. The last time things looked this good in Bengaldom was going into 2005 when Carson Palmer, Chad Johnson and friends were poised to break out. The Bengals managed to ruin that 2005 young nucleus basically within one year. That 2005 crop of players arguably had more talent than the current crop led by Andy Dalton and AJ Green, so why won’t that simply happen again?

One reason that might surprise those not intimately familiar with the Bengals franchise (i.e., everyone) is Marvin Lewis. Most of you know Marvin as the guy who uses challenges with less success than Roger Federer (astonishing really). However, what you may not understand is that for a franchise run on the cheap by an incompetent family with no front office…Marvin Lewis is the sole force within the Bengals trying to make it a modern NFL franchise. So sure, Marvin re-signing with the Bengals for the third time is similar to a fat guy swimming with his shirt on (he’s ashamed but does it anyway). But realize that although Marvin may be a whatever head coach for the 31 other NFL teams, he’s very valuable to the Bengals. Perhaps he will bring the stability and structure to the organization that allows them not to ruin a promising young core of talent? Or at least, he may buy a couple of extra years before they’re ruined?

At any rate, for the first time most Bengals fans can remember, there is reason for actual hope. We suggest enjoying it a little, but not too much, because in all likelihood it’ll be snuffed out soon.

PS - We also recommend the Browns preview written by the Peter of Cleveland Frowns.  The "Win Zone" chart is fucking hilarious.

Let's All Have a Good Laugh at My Expense

First, up, my most recent post where I ask (assuming the answer is basically "no"):

Do the Bengals have an edge in any area against Baltimore this week?

Well, yes, it turns out they do.  They have in edge in every area (except the area where you have to snap a ball seven yards backwards so a Ginger Kid can kick it - in that area the Ravens RULE).

All due respect to my boy Competitiveness, but if luck played a role in this game, it was good luck for the Ravens that they weren't down and out of this game by the end of the 3rd quarter.  The overthrow by Flacco on 3rd down and the convenient penalties on the game-winning drive merely allowed the final score to validate what anyone watching that game should have realized:  the Bengals outplayed the Ravens in every facet of the game and were a better team.

Second, I revisited my season preview and concluded the following:

Bengals fans find out this team has a ceiling.  And that ceiling is the wild card playoff round.

I even underlined it at the time for emphasis.  Whoops!  Instead we found out that the Bengals could beat a team previously thought to be among the class of the AFC (and for the past decade or so, by extension the entire NFL)...on the road.  The defense is legit, I can only imagine the offense can get better from here on out, a team identity for once exists, and a good-karma snowball appears to be rolling downhill and gaining speed.  All bets are off.

But, I remind everyone that the season is LONG and the Superbowl is all that matters.  And with that I will bow out of the prediction business for this season...

WDR Official Season Preview Part 2: The Rest

In part 1 we gave our prediction for the season (we have no f ing clue), so now it's time to check out what the rest of the world thinks. 

This turned out to be harder than I thought.  Searching many of the local blogs and media outlets, I had a tough time finding many predictions.  I found plenty of general comments but not a lot of concrete predictions.  So, we will treat this post as an work-in-progress.  As I find new previews I will add them to the post.  Help from readers would be appreciated.

Let's start with everyone's favorite:

Baghdad Hob

WDR Official Season Preview Part 1: A Massive Cop Out

In an earlier post, we promised to aggregate and keep track of the season previews issued by whomever we happened to read.  It is time to make good on that promise and provide a preview of our own (sort of).

First off, an apology, I committed the cardinal sin of over-promising and under-delivering.  I said for every outlet that provides a season preview, I would also track down their preview for 2008 so we can start to measure the accuracy of their predictions over time.  Well, it turns out I don't have time am too lazy.  So, as an appeal to readers, if you can find last year's prediction, drop a link in the comments and I'll update the post in the future (do the same if you are reading someone's prediction for this year too, I will obviously overlook many)

Some may rightly point out that previews waste everyone's time because there is so much uncertainty in the NFL season that randomness/luck will make anyone's preview look silly in retrospect.  I do not disagree but still find forecasts useful and enjoying for many reasons including:

• Speculating is tremendously fun in and of itself
• You can get a good feel for how fans feel about the team
• You can get a  good feel for how local media feel about the team
• You can get a good feel for how the rest of the country feels about the team
• You can find out the reasoning behind why people think the team will perform as they believe and what factors they think matter and don't
• You can use previews as a way to measure who appears to predict successfully or not and learn from them

Did I mention you can win money if you predict with success?

So, with that noted, here we go with predictions.  We'll begin with our very own WDR official preview and then follow up with a post aggregating previews from other outlets.

Defensive Preview Part One: Line Pressure

NOTE: This begins a three-part defensive preview for the 2009 season

Last year, the Bengals finished a pathetic thirty-first in adjusted sack rate, getting just seventeen sacks total. Defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer tried to fix this chronic problem by incorporating many blitzes, but nothing really worked to get the quarterback down.

For this post, let's consider the defense's defensive line, and the pressure they should be expected to get. While Zimmer does like to blitz, not being forced to is always preferable, for obvious reasons.

Offensive Preview: Prognosis Negative

I haven't kept my disapproval of Bob Bratkowski's performance hidden. He should not be the Bengal's offensive coordinator after a dismal 2008 playcalling season but, nevertheless, he is.

Word is that Bratkowski, with the help of Carson Palmer, plans to run the football more this upcoming season. Keeping in mind that I do support Brat changing up his strategies, let's consider the new emphasis on the ground game.

Football Outsiders Interview

The Football Outsiders Almanac is perhaps the most in-depth NFL publication available right now, with their advanced stats and groundbreaking findings -- such as field goal accuracy not being a consistent stat -- creating a book high in quality and quantity (517 pages). I highly recommend buying it. The writer who composed the Bengal's section, Rob Weintraub, was kind enough to answer some questions about the upcoming season, and Football Outsider's projections for it:

The Bengals have a 2009 mean win projection of 6.9 games (the system used has many, many variables and stats factored in). Why is the projection system not as optimistic as some of our fans?

Season Previews: We Read, We Track & We Judge

It's that time.  Prognostications by prognosticators of varying levels of credibility begin for the upcoming NFL season.  Whether written by fans or journalists or whomever, bias tends to rein to the upside.  In general, I take comfort in the eternal optimism humankind demonstrates with this behavior, but here at WDR we strive to keep the focus on reality, not hope.

So, as the title suggests, when we see a season preview, we keep track of it.  And rest assured, we have a long memory.  Check back later for a post where we aggregate the predictions made by the more relevant (or well known) outlets for 2009 and recap how those same folks did in 2008.

For now though, let's focus on the less relevant.  Reader "BengalFan", apropos of nothing in my post about the Bengals and the Lottery, dropped a link in the comments to his Bengals season preview.  Normally, I'd ignore or delete that type of link spam (please, if you want us to read something, do not drop a link in the comments of a post that has nothing to do with what that post is about, email us instead), but I decided to give "BengalFan" a chance.

Let's see what "BengalFan" has to say about the 2009 Bengals: