WhoDeyRevolution

Because You're Dying to Know What I Think

I would not mess at all with the NFL pre-season and regular season schedule.  16 regular season games already inflicts more than enough physical damage on the players, 2 additional meaningful games seems like a poor decision for everyone's health.

Oh, but the fact that teams force fans to pay for stupid pre-season games bothers you? 

Please believe a lot of the cost of the forced payment for those shitty games is already reflected in the pricing of the whole package.  If you just made season tickets for the regular season and sold pre-season games as single game packages the price of regular season tickets would go up quite a bit.  I would be one surprised dude if the cost of season tickets did not increase if the NFL went to a 2-18 format instead of a 4-16 format.

Look, the NFL is hugely popular, so the league will find ways to extract money from its fans because the fans are like a giant mass of twitching meth addicts.  So let's not mess with the health of the players which provide the excellent product we all enjoy by making them beat the hell out of each other two more times a year.

The Path to 11

After Sunday's beat down of Chicago, the Bengals sit at 5-2 going into their bye week.  First round pick Andre Smith looms almost like a mid-season acquisition.  We know what we have without him, and as long as we view whatever he brings as a bonus, it could be a big deal.  Really, the upgrade from Roland/Collins to Smith on the tackle eligible play alone is huge.

Anyways, this post isn't about HippapotaSmith.  It's about how the Bengals can get to 11 wins.  With last year being a very rare exception, 11 wins is enough to get you into the playoffs one way or another.  The Steelers figure to sit at the 10-12 win range.  The Ravens have already lost three, obviously, and both of those teams still have to play each other twice.  Realistically, 11 wins gives the Bengals a decent shot at the AFC North crown.

From my view, anything less than 11 wins at this point would be a disappointment, and anything in single digits would be a failure.  Take a look:

More on Bengals Wins Under Mike Brown

In a recent post I asked readers if they could provide more details on exactly who the Bengals beat to amass Mike Brown's staggering 101 total wins in 18 seasons.  Lo and behold, reader Jerome sent in a fantastic spreadsheet.

Now, this breakdown does not tell us how many wins came at a time when both the Bengals and their opponent were already eliminated from the playoffs (which was what I was hoping for), but it does give us a nice breakdown of each season and who we beat.  From that, I can sort of triangulate how many meaningless wins make up Mike's total. 

It turns out the 57 of the Bengals 64 2nd half victories (I actually came up with 67 in my own tally but I'll use a lower number to be fair and cause I don't have time to research it again - thanks to commenter WhoDeyFans for noticing the original incorrect figure) came against teams with records of .500 or less.  Given the Bengals propensity to start poorly, I'd guess they were eliminated from the playoffs in about 85% of those 57 wins.  And let's say their opponent in those 48 or so wins (.85 x 57 wins) was already eliminated in half those games.  That means roughly 24-25 of Mike's 101 total wins came in meaningless games, or about a quarter of his wins.  Unscientific, I know, but I'd be surprised if I overestimated the actual total.

You can check out the file here:  Download Bengals Wins Since 1991

It also has another worksheet that summarizes some of the findings, such as the fact that the cumulative win percentage of the teams the Bengals beat comes out at .390 (now, I assume most teams garner lots of wins against bad teams, so I'd like to see this stat league wide, but that looks pretty bad at first glance).  And also some great stuff about the Bengals wins coming suspiciously against expansion teams.  In my opinion, though, I like this stat the best:

With only 37 wins in 18 years coming in the first half of the season, the Bengals average start to a season is about 2-6.

Disgusting.

A Friendly Reminder: WDR Focuses on the Long Term

While skimming some of the feedback on various sites regarding PM Task #9, poster "Tommy <3's Da Bengals" reminded me of one of my favorite stats that summarizes Mike Brown's failure as an owner:

Of Mike Brown's 101 wins, 71 have come in the 2nd half of the season.

If an enterprising reader can dig up the info, I'd love to see how many of those 2nd half wins came against opponents already eliminated from playoff contention (i.e., the game just didn't matter).  The point is that even the "wins" Mike Brown produces are typically of low quality.  That's the type of track record Mike Brown puts up when he's in control and doesn't have a franchise QB leading the team (also known as the "Pre-Marvin, Pre-Carson" Era). 

And this is what the Bengals will revert to when the Carson era ends if no changes are made (I believe he is more important than Marvin since Marvin does not have control like he used to).

This is why, even in a pre-season full of optimism, we still pull PM stunts.  We are rational and have a long memory.

Bengals Worried About Blackout, Sellout Streak

As you may or may not know, the Bengals have sold out every game for the last five full seasons, dating all the way back to the Kansas City game in 2003.  This also means the team hasn't been on a local TV blackout since the '03 season.  A blackout would be very, very bad for the Bengals.  Right now, the public at large just hates Mike Brown.  If local TV blackouts became commonplace, people would just forget about him and his team.  From the team's perspective, it's better to be hated than forgotten.

Obviously, the team is terrified of not selling out, and rightfully so.  Some organizations would tackle this fear by realizing the only consistent, reliable draw is a winner.  Once they had this realization, every possible effort to field said winner would be made.  From clearing out the front office to an overhaul of the scouting staff to attracting the best coaches and players in the offseason, steps would be taken to produce a winner.

For the Bengals?  A simpler solution: rig the schedule!  And if you can't rig the schedule, sell the tickets in a convenient way!  

10 out of 10 Scientists Say: Bengals 2nd Half of Season Was Meaningless

Folks - I cannot emphasize enough how foolish it would be to get your hopes up for next year based on the Bengals play in the 2nd half of the year.  Why?  Behold, ladies and gentlemen, a statistical breakdown of Bengals wins and when they came since 1991 (when Mike Brown took the helm).

The file, for your viewing pleasure disgust, is here:  Download Bengals 2nd Half Wins .

You can look at each season in the file, but here are the salient points:

1. In the average Bengals season under Mike Brown, 71% of the total wins come in the 2nd half of the season (more than 2 in 3 wins, in other words)
2. In 5 of the 18 total seasons under Mike Brown, all of the Bengals wins have come in the 2nd half of the season (including this year...that's almost 1 in 3 seasons where the Bengals start 0-8)
3. Of Mike Brown's 101 total wins, 31 have come in November and 36 have come in December.  This means Mike Brown's Bengals have more wins in December than they do total wins in the first half of the season combined.
4. MOST IMPORTANT, only 1 time out of 15 seasons where the Bengals have "finished strong" (more wins in the 2nd half), has this been followed by a season where we have had a winning season.  This is, of course, because we've only had 1 FRICKING WINNING SEASON IN 18 DAMN YEARS!