WhoDeyRevolution

2010 WR Free Agent Class Part I: Unrestricted Free Agents

Update:  The Bengals just released Coles.  Logical given his hefty-ish salary.  We officially have no #2 WR now, so there is no excuse for the Bengals not to explore free agency aggressively.  Unless they want to insult their fans (oh right, I forgot).  And Matt Jones DOES NOT count, fan boy.

I am on the record publicly stating I don't think we can solve our receiving problems for next year through the draft.  Odds are anyone taken would not contribute significantly until 2011...and it's looking like that season won't exist anyway.

So that leaves free agency or trades.  Not exactly an area where Mike "You're doin' a heckuva job" Brownie demonstrates excellence.  And besides, Mikey already made his huge splash with Matt Jones.  Mission accomplished we can all agree.

Regardless, there is still lots of talk about the many receivers available as free agents this year.  So, to clear things up, here is a breakdown of the 2010 free agents (though some may have signed since I wrote this and I may have missed a few, apologies in advance).

To start, all free agents are not created equal.  Restricted free agents (RFAs) may come at quite high a price, such as a first round pick in this year's draft.  So we'll look at the unencumbered guys first, who the Bengals can sign without forfeiting anything.  These are the unrestricted free agents (UFAs) that I think might matter:

Antonio Bryant
Nate Burleson
Derrick Mason
Terrell Owens
Kevin Walter

Here's the question you need to ask yourself about UFAs:  would prefer to have any of these them as a replacement for Coles (assuming we cut him) at the same cost or less.  Simple.

My take:  I mostly agree with my boy Sly on TO.  Just not worth the risk/cost with other potential options out there.

Bryant and Walter probably represent the most intriguing options.  Bryant may ask for more money than he is worth though.  Regardless, he should get a look.  Walter plays a good complementary role to Andre Johnson in Houston, no reason to think he couldn't do the same with Chad here.  He's big, he's young and he's a poor man's TJ imitation that should come at the right price.

I don't know much about Burleson but something tells me he is not the answer.  I say every year Mason is getting old...then he goes out and produces.  But seriously, he's old.  Also, he's played against the Bengals enough to know he should stay away.

Bottom line:  the Bengals should cast a line and do some fishing with the UFAs.

What I'd Do With The Uncapped Year

As you've undoubtedly heard by now, it's all but certain that the 2010 NFL season will go on without a salary cap.  No salary cap also means no salary floor.  If this happens long-term, it'd be Goodnight Irene for the Bengals' chances at a championship as long as Mike Brown ran the team.  However, I'm of the belief that we don't have to worry about this.  For all their posturing, the NFLPA knows that the salary cap system in place is good for both parties.  After the 2010 season, whenever football is played again, it will be under a salary cap.

Thus, I'm operating under the assumption that 2011 and beyond will be under very similar cap rules as those that have been in place.  A quick, very basic refresher.  A player's salary counts only towards their cap number for the year it is paid, and can vary wildly by year.  It can go from $10M one year to only $300k the next, depending on the structure of the contract.  Thus, a player can have very, very different figures against the cap from year to year.  Obviously, no player would allow their pay to be jerked around so violently every season.  This is stemmed by two types of bonuses, signing and roster (they can be but are not always guaranteed).  Signing bonuses are prorated over the life of the contract.  For example, a 5 year contract with a $20M signing bonus means that $4M counts towards a player's cap figure every year of the deal.  If a player is released at any point of those 5 years, the remaining bonus proration counts against the cap immediately.  Roster bonuses, for the purpose of this article, function very similar to base salaries, at least in the way they are counted against the salary cap.

I follow the league as a whole daily, and I've yet to see any conclusive opinion on how exactly contracts signed in 2010 will count towards future salary caps.  Will they be prorated as per usual?  Will they work under a different set of rules?  Nobody knows for sure, and nobody will until the next CBA is hammered out, which will be in March 2011 at the earliest.

Statistical Analysis and Other Thoughts

The Bengals' DVOA rating slid once again, as they now sit at twentieth in the league at a well below-average -6.3%. According to the metric, defense and special teams have been the main issues. While the defense has been overrated by fans, I'm not so sure it's worse than the offense.

Passing the ball and defending the pass -- as well as the kicking game -- are really hurting the ranking at this point. Unfortunately, I don't see this changing defensively. With Antwan Odom on IR, the D will struggle to get a consistent pass rush, which will further expose the poor safety play and thin corner depth.

So far this season, Mike Zimmer has focused on stopping the opposing team's number one target; this is shown in the number three ranking against number one receivers despite Sunday's putrid performance against Andre Johnson . Although Leon Hall has had a mostly solid season, a lot of this has to do with Zimmer rolling zone coverage toward the number one's side. Providing extra linebacker support allows Hall to play back and defend the deep ball, but also leaves other parts of the field vulnerable and makes the defense too dependent on the safeties, who have defended running backs and slot receivers poorly.