WhoDeyRevolution

What a Difference a Year Makes...

This was just too cheesy to pass up...

Since Marvin took over the team in 2003 the Bengals are 2-7 in the first preseason game of the season. The typical theme in every first preseason game: lots of mental mistakes and no spark. Expect nothing but the same tonight. Reedy, if you are reading this please ask Marvin why his teams are always flat for the first preseason game in the post-game conference interview. 

Last season with only two weeks of cramming a new offensive playbook and two rookies at two critical spots (QB and #1 WR), the first preseason game was advertised to be the most unorganized and sloppy Bengal's game we may see in years. They didn’t fail to deliver. I don’t see why this game will look any prettier. For those that gamble, the Jets are an easy -105 giving up 1.5 points. 

While Hobson is throwing another $10 cover pep rally over on Bengals.com, here at WDR we are going to help you with what really should be watched tonight.

 

When the Bengals Have the Ball

1. The Retooled Offensive Line
Forget all the talk of the WR’s. This will work itself out as the season progresses. In the end, I believe it will be a mix of Bimms (85) & Sanu (12) by the end of the season. However, WR’s don’t catch balls if the QB is being constantly pressured and the timing is thrown off. Ask the Patriots how that worked out in the Super Bowl.

Dalton may now actually have the protection he needs to succeed. The mistake (Livings) is finally gone to the Boy’s (good luck with that one Romo). Bobbie Williams should have retired, but left for the Ravens. After years of neglect, Marvin and company finally upgraded the guard spots by investing in a run blocker known for his consistency, Wharton (70), and drafting 1^st rounder mauler, Zeitler (68). The key to the offense this year is how fast the lines gels.

Although the talent is there, fans need to anticipate growing pains along the OL with 2/5 of the line being retooled. Typically it takes half a season for an OL to gel and work out any communication errors. Seattle last year best exemplifies this process. Compare Lynch’s stats for the start of the season to the end; you will clearly see when their OL gelled and Lynch's fantasy value skyrocketed.

Since Rex Ryan’s scheme is all about creating confusion along the OL, expect plays to look completely fugly at times tonight. This will improve as the season progresses, but the execution could be lacking at times. If they can execute on a consistent basis, then that means they are ahead of the curve.

2. The Chess Match
This is my favorite part of the game. This is a good first test of 2012 to see if Gruden can broaden the attack abilities of the offense. Last year he was a clear upgrade to Bratkowski, which isn’t saying much. But I was not impressed with his inability to spread the ball around once defenses began taking AJ Green out of the equation. However last year, he did have the deck stack against him with only a few weeks to install a vanilla offense in the preseason, had rookies in two critical spots, and a patch work OL to work with all season. The result was a passing tree that, although it was better than Brats, was not very aggressive nor did it take advantage of the true receiving talent that the team possesses. Tonight he faces the toe hugger, Rex Ryan, whose scheme is a great trial run for opening weekend against the Ravens.

A key indicator to follow the chess match at home is whether in certain game situations, i.e. 3^rd & short, plays are getting blown up. They may because of the OL, but if the Jets are stunting to a side of the field and they get to the hole before the ball carrier, then the league is on to Gruden’s play calling trends. At the end of last season, Gruden’s play calling became very predictable - almost telegraphed at times. By going against a derivative of the scheme that he will face four times during the regular season, it will be interesting to see how capable Gruden is at mixing things up and getting multiple players involved in moving the ball.

If he can create mismatches to take advantage of the holes in the Jets defense, then it could be sign of good things to come. However from what I observed last season, I don’t have high hopes for Gruden’s upside, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Hue Jackson takes over the play calling duties at some point this or next season. But I could be wrong like I was once before...

3. Red
Red is for real. I have to retract my statement from last year about his inability to succeed on this team. Last year with no offseason, a questionable OL, and a thinned WR corps due to injuries, Dalton put together a fantastic season for a rookie QB.

To put it in perspective:
Palmer in his first year under center threw for 2,897 yards 18 TD’s and 18 INT’s for a QB rating of 77.3 in 13 games.

Dalton produced 3,398 yards, 20 TD’s and 13 INT’s for a QB rating of 80.4.

To add to this, the QB that everyone is comparing Dalton to threw for 3,284 yards, 17 TD’s and 16 INT’s for a rating of 76.9. That QB was Drew Brees. We all know what Palmer did his second season behind center and what Brees eventually became.

However this is actually not a fair comparison because Palmer played behind one of the most dominant OL’s in the league in 2005 and had a young, but experienced, WR corps at the time. Behind a gelling OL and inexperienced young WR corps, I don’t expect to see Dalton really begin to develop until later in the season.

Tonight will be a showcase of his ability to withstand pressure while finding the open man in a confusing defensive scheme. He showed us last year as a rookie he has the ability to read this defense. Now he has to show us he has developed by executing and spreading the ball around down the field to take advantage of the holes the Jets give him.

When the Jets Have the Ball

The D-Line
Forget the secondary tonight. There are too many injuries to truly assess its development tonight. The key to watch on the defensive side tonight is the new D-line.

The other major offseason move was the investment in the defensive line by drafting DT’s Still in the 2^nd round and Thompson in the 3^rd. Both are strong as hell and known to be run stuffers – something this team has been lacking for decades. The Texans took advantage of this weakness in the Wildcard game, and I was amazed when the Bengals logically addressed this hole.

The Jet’s OL is not as strong as it was in the past, but it still has the ability to control the line of scrimmage in both the running and passing games. Tonight will be a great test of both.

Keys to watch are:

a) How does the DL rotation that Zimmer created in 2010 and continued to develop last season incorporate Still and Thompson into the mix? Look for who they team Atkins (97) up with in different situtations.

b) Will the rotation be able to hold the line against one of the most formidable OL’s in the league in the first quarter? On running plays, watch to see if they can control the LOS or even dominate it at times.

c) Will the new DT’s free up the linebackers to finally allow them to make plays in space?

d) Most importantly, can the defense apply pressure to Sanchez on third down by only rushing four linemen?

 

The Bengals Are Getting More Unlikeable By The Day!

Do you have a past history of wrecking teams?  Violating the sanctity of the locker room?  Taking swings at your quarterback?  Most importantly, do you HAVE TALENT??????  If so, you, my good friend, are a candidate for Redeeming!!!!!!

Cincy Jungle has already been all over this.  Not much to add here.  I think we're legally obliged to post something though.  So, welcome back Shaun Smith.  The worst thing about this?  It tells me the team doesn't expect Peko, a player who was having a great year (as well as being a leader), to be back.  Ugh.

Seriously, how could he possibly fit in here?  He accused Chad of swinging at Marvin (and Hue "The Hugger" Jackson) during halftime of the '05 Wild Card game.  Either:

a)  that's true.  Chad (not exactly stable) and Marvin (who is quite obviously not in charge at this point) can't be happy.  Really, would you like the guy who ran his mouth so blatantly.

or

b)  that's false.  Which is even worse.

Even more evidence that a 9-3 record at this point is in spite of Mike Brown, not because of him.

Five Reasons Against Larry Johnson

Although not official yet, it appears that the Bengals will sign former Chiefs' running back Larry Johnson, likely as insurance in the case Cedric Benson's hip injury worsens. This, folks, isn't a good move. It isn't one that will kill the team (or at least I hope not), but still, even if Larry gets a minimum-NFL contract, I'm strongly against it. Here's why:

1. Larry Johnson's Age
This week, Johnson will turn thirty years old. Sure, the effect aging has on a running back once he's thirty has been overstated, but there is still a clear trend towards decline after the age of twenty-eight. Especially considering Johnson's impressive but damaging attempt numbers during his Kansas City days (416 carries in 2006), the chances of him going back to even a decent Y/A of 4.3 or slightly below are poor.

Thoughts on Weeks 1-6

Hey there WDR readers, I haven't been writing much recently, did you miss me?  No?  WELL I WASN'T ASKING YOU ANYWAYS.

Now that we have that out of the way, here are my quick thoughts on the current state of Bengaldom (Hobson, Bengals.com) through the first 6 weeks of the season.

The "Real Fans" Argument: People come on this site all the time and claim that the writers and comrades of the Revolution aren't "real fans" because we want the Bengals to change their management decision-making personnel and process.  Then there are others who are angry that the team magically seems to have more "fans" whenever the team does well.  To them I say, relax.  We are talking about sports here.  This is not 'Nam.  Sports are a distraction from real life, something to enjoy. People enjoy supporting a winner.  That is why WDR exists - to try and force the Bengals to change how they do things so the team wins more often.  Let's take out the personal attacks and agree that we all want the same thing - for the Bengals to win football games. 

The "4-2 Record Means the Revolution is Over" Argument: The NFL is designed to promote parity - every team is hypothetically doing everything they can to get an edge.  The league is absurdly competitive.   Take a look at the Titans - from 13-3 last year to an embarrassingly putrid 0-6 this year.  The margin of error that results in wins and losses is razor thin.  To win, teams need to do everything they can to get an edge.  Is WDR pleased that the Bengals are 4-2?  Yes, yes and yes.    But could the Bengals be doing more to ensure that these wins continue, perhaps (GASP!) into the playoffs?  YES.

Aqua Bengal Has Better Hands Than Coats Without Opposable Thumbs.

Hob, TE's, FJM-style.

The Bengals want more consistency from their tight ends,

I don't think consistency is the word you're looking for there. The ability to not suck? That works better.

but they aren’t ready to exile Dan Coats or J.P Foschi or activate third-rounder Chase Coffman even though he’s been good enough in practice that head coach Marvin Lewis is calling him all-Hamilton County.

I think Marvin's making fun of our fair county, because if Coffman can't get time with these two buffoons ahead of him, then all-Hamilton County must not mean much. Or it means Coffman could absolutely walk on at Elder and start right away.

Where We Go From Here

It's been quite an active couple of days for comments on our site.  We appreciate everyone's viewpoint, and I think it is all a testament to how emotionally we are tied to this team...in one way or another. 

For those of you who were up in arms over the posting of the Blair Witch style video of the two crucial plays from the game on Sunday:  It was not my intention to celebrate those who were in the stadium as supporting Mike Brown, etc.  I just thought it captured what this city actually felt on Sunday, and how it could be like that all the time if the Bengals actually structured the organization like a real-live NFL team.  This team has a long way to go to even sniff the playoffs, and I sure as hell don't to think this team is going to a Super Bowl anytime soon.  If Brian Leonard doesn't get his hand down and leap for a first down, we are talking about another loss to Pittsburgh and a disappointing 1-2 start.  I as much as anyone understand that.  

The margin of winning and losing in the NFL is razor thin.  Much like playing blackjack at a casino...over the long run, you are going to lose.  In today's NFL if you are not hunting for and exploiting every single last advantage you can find, the other teams will consistently win more than you.  Without having a general manager, an extensive scouting department, or a clear long-range 'plan' (or system) for your football team, you will not be successful over the long run.  It just isn't possible.  We have a sample size of nearly twenty years in the Mike Brown/Salary Cap era.  I think that is enough to make a logical, realistic judgment.

Congrats Andre, You're #6!

Not only in the 2009 draft, but as of today Andre moves into 6th place all by himself on the list of longest rookie holdouts in the Mike Brown era!

Since the Brown family apparently has no plans to pay you based on your slot (like every other NFL team would have done weeks ago), I see no reason why you can't ride this out well past John Copeland and Akili Smith, maybe even dethroning your cousin Justin at #1.

God, Please Put Mike Brown On Waivers. It's An Ability Thing.

I only caught the last 10 minutes or so of Hard Knocks last night. And I wish I hadn't seen it. Watching Mike Brown sit at the front of a Georgetown classroom and act a fool confirmed all of our worst theories about how the Bengals actually are behind closed doors. I've been trying to wrap my mind around the scenario, and what I keep coming up with is that Mike Brown lives in a world of delusion. No one tells him that most of the players and ideas he brings to the team are spectactularly awful. And since no one calls him on his disabilities he just keeps on playing make believe like he did when his dad was around. Paul Brown may have done the same sort of tinkering with his team but he had decades of teaching and coaching and evaluating talent to rely on. All Mike did before he took the reins was exist as a big round flesh toned bowling ball. 

This situation is so sad. Marvin had his shot at being a head coach neutered by Mikey. The first half of Carson's career is going to pass by with him only playing in one playoff game. Mike Zimmer's head is going to explode after his linebacking corp is decimated by injuries and Mike Brown tells him Brad St. Louis has good lateral quickness and a linebackin' body. And all the while two generations of football fans in Cincy are never going to know what it feels like to have confidence while rooting for their team.

Willie Anderson, Tweetin' the Truth

In a recent tweet by fellow ex-Bengal and great American Willie Anderson, he shed some light on the Jeremi Johnson situation this offseason:

Yeah Right! Mike Brown won't let them cut Jeremy Johnson. He made the coaches go find him in Kentucky this offseason.

This is the same Jeremi Johnson that has come to camp overweight and unprepared almost every offseason.  The same one who hasn't contributed since his flurry of fake handoff touchdown receptions in 2005.  The only reason Mikey keeps bringing him back is because Mikey is such a good guy! He just finds a softspot in his heart for certain worthless/troubled players, and has to enrich them with NFL salaries. 

The opportunity cost of this of course is the possibility of signing a fullback with real talent, and one that would contribute in taking us to the next level.  But there is no "next level" with Mike Brown.  He is quite alright being "competitive", and taking care of his guys in the process.

Mike Brown to Alvin Keels: I Got Your Slotted System Hangin'

You've probably seen the news by now that 49ers 1st rounder Michael Crabtree has threatened to sit out the season and reenter the 2010 draft if the team doesn't acquiesce to his contract demands.  At this rate, Andre Smith won't need to make the threat, it will happen organically.

From Joe Reedy:

According to parties familiar with the negotiations, the Bengals have offered of $33 million. That's $5.25 million less than what the seventh pick, Darrius Heyward-Bey, signed for with Oakland.

That contract is complicating negotiations between the Bengals and Smith, who was selected sixth.

Heyward-Bey’s deal has a base of $38.25 million, with $23.5 million guranteed. That contract is an increase of over 20 percent from what last year’s seventh overall pick made.

Vernon Gohlston, last year’s sixth overall pick, signed for $40 million.

It goes on...

Smith's camp is looking for something slightly higher than Heyward-Bey's deal. The sides had not talked since Monday as of this morning. (Emphasis mine)

This, my good friends, is almost unthinkable.  The NFL has a terrible, awful, flat-out dumb system for signing draft picks.  Nonetheless, it is the system.  Each pick gets a contract that falls somewhere in between the guy picked ahead of him and the guy picked behind him.  Sometimes, it comes closer to the person picked in front of him.  In some situations (like this one), it should come closer to the guy picked behind him, considering that fifth pick Mark Sanchez is a quarterback.  But always, the advertised total value of the package is in between the range given.

(Note:  there are times when someone gets an better contract than the person picked in front of him.  This is a rarity and is generally because of front office stupidity.  See Darrelle Revis's contract from 2007.  Even in this case, the advertised, base package fell into the proper range.) 

Why Bengals management feels that Andre Smith signs a contract less than that of the guy picked behind him is beyond me.  Maybe it's because Smith's agent, Alvin Keels, is handling his first 1st round pick.  If he agrees to a deal less than Heyward-Bey's, it will also be his last 1st round pick.

Also worth mentioning is that the two sides hadn't talked since Monday morning.  Not as if this is worth wasting time on though, right Mikey?  There has to be plenty of Denny's in the Georgetown/Lexington area to check out!  Plus, it's not as if Andre is known as lazy and slightly unstable, I'm sure he's working hard down there in Alabama to make sure he's in camp shape!  He'll be ready from snap one!

The only real question left - Will HBO still be around to film the scene where Andre signs and then rushes out to practice?