WhoDeyRevolution

WDR in NYC: NFL Draft Recap

As you may have noticed, it's difficult to organize Project Mayhem Tasks in the offseason. So what better venue to get the momentum back than at the NFL Draft, we thought. The Draft, after all, is perhaps the one event more than any other in football that encapsulates so perfectly the shortcomings of the Bengals organization.

Here was the plan:

1. Get a large group of Bengals revolutionaries to attend the Draft live at Radio City (free tickets baby)

2. Have these fans wear jerseys of failed past draft picks (or something creative made themselves with a similar theme)

3. Sneak in signs saying "Draft a GM" (the 3 word simplification of our entire manifesto)

4. Leading up to our 6th pick, start a loud and un-ignorable (not a word) chant of "Draft a GM" to hopefully force the ESPN crew to acknowledge the cause

Good plan in theory. Hard plan to execute in practice. Turns out securing seating as a group in a place anywhere near the action is virtually impossible. Also, there are only so many folks who can make the draft in NYC. So la Revolucion could not manage to disrupt the draft itself, however, the guys who went still did manage to make a ruckus and gain sympathy for the cause - notably through a brief TV interview as they walked in and via a discussion with a local NYC sports blogger (sadly we cannot find links to these anywhere on the interwebs).

No WDR writers could participate in the task due to friends inconsiderately choosing to get married that weekend (jerks) so I'll turn it over to ringleader and honorary revolutionary Allan for his recap of the weekend. It's highly entertaining. WDR would like to give special thanks to all those who attended on our behalf - their enthusiasm and dedication reminded me yet again what a bad fan I am.

Take it away Allan!

9:45 PM Friday - it was a warm night when I caught a cab to Rockefeller Center and saw a mass of humanity stretching almost 2/3 of a block towards Radio City Music Hall. Hmm - this whole draft thing was bigger than we expected. So much for meeting other WDR comrades - given that some fools had been waiting since noon, I was lucky to get a wristband (at 12:40 AM!!!).

1:00 PM Saturday - I showed up early, baby. Managed to run into fellow WDRs Jon and Steve, and we assumed our place in line. Lions fans became our best friends. Much MUCH sympathy for the WDR cause. Beautiful.

On the way in, we three were interviewed by espn.com, and Steve delivered our manifesto in such a concise manner, it blew the guy with the mic away.

Excerpt:

Interviewer: "So do you consider Carson Palmer the best of the USC quarterbacks?"

Steve: "We'll never know unless he spends less time on his back!"

On the way in, we were also interviewed by a local blog, and we repeated our demands. Any publicity is good publicity.

Bengals Draft Better Than We Give Them Credit For?

Via C Trent's Thinking Out Loud post, the answer is yes.  Hmmmm.  Confusing.  If we draft well then why are we so bad?  I investigated further.

Mr Rosecrans directs us to a link (it's pretty far down) to Advanced NFL Stats, where the author attempts to quantify the draft success of NFL teams since 1996.  To quantify success, the author uses the following two stats:

1. Years the draft pick was the primary player at his position (years as a starter)
2. Number of pro bowl selections of that draft pick

They do this for all draft picks since 1996.  Based on these stats, they find that the Bengals rank very highly (6th overall) on the number of years the draft pick played as the starter and in the top half (14th overall) on pro bowls.

Right now, many of you will rightly cry, "But Sleeping With Bieniemy, that does not take into account where teams picked in the draft.  We should measure well because we always have high picks on account of us sucking in the past."

Indeed, clever readers, that is correct.  And the guys at Advanced NFL Stats are no dummies either, so they controlled for that too.  They provide another nifty table that shows the Bengals rank 12th overall after adjusting for their draft position.  Again, they get high marks for the length of time their draftees play as the primary starter but lose out when it comes to pro bowl appearances.

Okay, so the Bengals do okay drafting according to science.  So should we stop complaining about the lack of scouts already?

MJD Has It All Wrong

While even I couldn't criticize the first few picks of the Bengals' draft, I think we can all agree that the Bernard Scott selection in the sixth round was indefenisble.  To call the guy a character concern would be like calling the swine flu panic inducing. 

Where, oh where, can we begin.  He didn't play his senior season of high school after an off-field fighting incident.  So he was 17 years old and got in a fight, no big deal, right?  He's been arrested at least five times.  Yeah, well, that can happen to anybody?  He got kicked out of Central Arkansas for hitting a coach (which he denies).  Hey, coaches can be dicks sometimes.  In 2006, he was charged with stealing an iPod.  Maybe he was just trying to make sure the person didn't have any illegally downloaded music.  He was arrested on June 28th of last year for fleeing an officer.  Maybe his foot slipped onto the gas?

Bernard Scott is obviously a candidate for Redeeming.  After all, the guy has talent!  Check out this quote from a former coach, "He hates school, doesn’t trust a lot of people and obviously has some anger issues. I’m hoping that he’s matured some, but he maybe is one of the best pure running backs as far as balance, skills sets, vision and elusiveness."  Hey, the guy hates doing what is required of him and has some trust and anger issues, but damnit can he run!  Another coach had this to say, "He’s like Barry Sanders. You can contain him, contain him, contain him, and then all of a sudden, it’s over."

Basically, there is an 85% chance this guy gets arrested at some point in Cincinnati.  Somewhere around .001% of the time he'll become the next Barry Sanders.  Cue Mike Brown:  SO YOU'RE SAYIN' THERE'S A CHANCE?

Over at Shutdown Corner, MJD asks, "But does it always have to be the Bengals who are giving the second (or sixth) chance?"  Quite simply, yes!  Mike Brown is a redeemer.  Not just a redeemer, he's The Redeemer.  He Redeems all of those lost souls out there in draft-land (as long as they have talent).  After all, he's already taken all of these risks on guys with major character concerns, and none of them have panned out.  Don't you think he'd be kicking himself if he passes on the next guy with major character concerns and he actually HAS turned his life around?

MJD is absolutely right on one thing.  Marvin Lewis does not have to be the patron saint of wayward football players.  Mike Brown already is.

Credit Due

Around this here corner of the intertubes, we make a living criticizing Mike Brown.  As a matter of fact, stay tuned on that front because we have some very interesting information to share with you guys this week.  Overall, Mike Brown is quite possibly the worst owner in all of American professional sports and has no business making personnel decisions on a day-to-day, year-to-year basis.

However, in any way you want to look at it, it's hard to knock the man for what he did this weekend.  You can say he got lucky that certain guys essentially fell into his lap.  A fair point.  You can say a broken clock is right twice a day, which is certainly true.  You could even point out that it was silly to make all 11 selections, because they can't all make the roster.  I'd agree with you there. 

Still, it's hard for me to take any sort of serious, sky-is-falling, negative outlook on the Bengals' draft in 2009.  Obviously, we don't know how all of these guys will pan out.  For all of their production at the college level, all picks in the NFL Draft have "bust" potential.  However, to be perfectly honest, it would be hard for me to pin their failures on Mikey Boy. 

Now, I know I'm just a guy who writes for a blog, but let's run down all 11 picks and I'll give my opinion.  I could be wrong, I could be right, I could be grossly misinformed, but I'm going to do it anyway.

Round 1, Pick 6 - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama

As has been mentioned in this space before, Andre Smith was a consensus top 3 pick on January 1st.  Then, he missed the Sugar Bowl, left the Combine, and took off his shirt.  Now, don't get me wrong, there are some red flags with him.  His weight is an issue, as is his maturity and motivation.  However, you could find some red flags with all of the top flight tackles.  Jason Smith basically never put his hand on the ground at Baylor.  Some people questioned whether or not he'd transition well to the NFL.  Eugene Monroe, for all of his talents, has knee problems which is obviously a huge concern for a man his size.  Michael Oher has all-world upside but lacked consistency.  Fact is, the Bengals needed a tackle.  No matter which one they took, there was some downside.  To be honest, I'd rather have Monroe, but it's hard to kill them for this pick.

One Man's Take on the Bengals Draft

Generally, I avoid trying to use the first person but since draft day provides many different opinions, I can't speak for the rest of WDR.  Given that... 

What I liked:

-Drafting an Offensive Tackle in the 1st round: Protection for Carson Palmer was needed.  There was a point where I thought Aaron Curry would fall and was actually rooting against it because if Carson Palmer doesn't have time to throw, the Bengals have no chance.  Curry would have been a justifiable deviation from the Offensive Tackle plan that I just didn't want.  I also don't mind the selection of Andre Smith.  Smith was the #1 projection for almost a full calendar year and it really all came apart on one day.  I'm still trying to figure out his "character concerns" that people seem to blow out of proportion.  While Eugene Monroe was there, uncertainty exists for him as well as he dislocated a knee cap in college.  I like the Andre Smith pick.

-REY MAUALUGA!!!: A moment of shear panic consumed me when this guy was available for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  That's all the Bengals need...two crazy Polynesian dudes running all over the place wreaking havoc on our offense.  Instead, he fell and the Bengals pounced on him.  While I would have been fine with Center Max Unger or Maualuga, I think the right choice was made.  The defense now has swagger and a little bit of crazy.  Point taken from Comrade Jenkins...Marvin and Zimmer will have to coach him up and keep him disciplined but if you watched a USC college football game last year, you should be excited about this pick.  If we weren't on boycott, I'd consider a Maualuga jersey.  But we are on boycott and are not coming off of it so it looks like I'll be relegated to P Dub at least until the Bengals make the playoffs.

What I didn't like:

The draft just wouldn't be complete without a selection like this: Bernard Scott, RB, Abilene Christian.  Here's his Scouts Inc.'s character profile (Scouts Inc.'s gave him a 5, the lowest possible character score):

2008: Finishing 18 month of probation for giving false information to a police officer during a traffic stop. 2005: Central Arkansas dismisses Scott from the team for striking a coach who was trying to break up a fight during a spring practice. 2002: High School dismisses him from team before senior season for involvement in an off-campus fight.

What more can be said at this point?  Jason Shirley last year and Bernard Scott this year.  Disgusting.

2009 WDR Bengals Only Mock Draft

I'm not a draft expert.

Nor do I watch game film.  I watch a ton of college football, but in no way, shape or form do I know how to properly judge and evaluate collegiate talent.

That being said, I think mock drafts are interesting.  You can't tell me that every time you see a mock draft, any mock draft, you don't take a peek to see who they have the Bengals taking in the first round.  Below, I have compiled potential selections for all eleven draft picks for the Bengals.  Again, I'm no guru...but:

1)  I want to weigh in on the Andre Smith debate (and why the Bengals should NOT take him)

2)  It would be quite hard for me to do worse than one playoff appearance in 19 years and the worst record in the four major professional sports since 1991.

We are going on the following assumptions in the first round:

- The Bengals do not trade up or down in the #6 position.
- Aaron Curry, Jason Smith, and Eugene Monroe are all taken in the top 5 of the draft.

Even for the straight-laced Bengals, it's hard to believe that they will actually draft eleven players this weekend.  They will probably package some picks (the compensatory picks are not available to trade) and end up taking somewhere between 7-9 players.  But, let's just assume they do select a player with all eleven picks.  

Here we go:

Round 1, Pick 6 (6) 
BJ Raji, DT, Boston College

Here's why:  Frankly, the WDR writers are split on this pick.  About half of us still want the Bengals to take a very large man to protect the blind side of Carson Palmer.  Whether that is Andre Smith or Michael Oher.  In my opinion, Oher might still be available at #20 or later in the first round, and investing over $20 million guaranteed on Andre Smith is just too much of a risk.  The guy blew the two biggest job interviews of his life, and he has the tag of being lazy and overweight.  In another city, Andre Smith makes sense at #6.  But in Cincinnati, who exactly is going to kick his rear to get him in shape?  Bengals need to stay away and focus on a run-stuffing tackle that can move the pocket.  The 'positive' drug test was proved false, and remember that 31 teams passed on Tank Johnson until the Bengals signed him in early April.  A future of Pat Sims and BJ Raji at defensive tackle is something you can build a defense around...especially in a division that features run-first teams like Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

Round 2, Pick 6 (38)
Eric Wood, C, Louisville

Here's why:  Even if the Bengals have to trade some of their picks to move up to take Wood...do it.  They need to flat out go get this guy.  He has been called the 'most prepared player in the nation' and the Elder grad would provide stability and leadership to anchor the offensive line.  No matter how much spin the Bengals put on their offensive line...it is a fact that the running game (and offense in general) has not been the same since Rich Braham was at center.  That better change Saturday evening.

Mike Brown Sucks - Peter King Edition

In today's MMQB, Peter King counts the draft day trades by each NFL franchise over the last five years.  I'd be willing to bet you can guess one of the two franchises tied in dead last, with one.  If you guessed the Arizona Cardinals, you'd be right!  However, I'd imagine you probably guessed the Cincinnati Bengals, in which case you'd be right again.

Think about that.  Over the last five years, the Bengals have traded up or down once on draft day.  That's almost unfathomable.  Do they even have phones in the Bengals war room?  Are you really trying to tell me that over the last five years, at no point did a team call the Bengals in an attempt to trade up?  That the Bengals never thought enough of a player to part with an extra draft pick to get him?

The Bengals have 11 picks in this year's draft, and one thing is for certain.  There is absolutely no way they can fit all 11 of them onto their final 53 man roster.  Making all 11 selections would be foolish.  Packaging a few to move up to get someone you like would be wise.  I wouldn't always agree with that statement, but having 11 picks in a draft allows (and maybe even forces) you do to just that.  Trading away some of those picks for future picks wouldn't be a bad idea either.  You could be flexible in future drafts in addition to this one.  We'll see how this plays out, but I have an idea this ends badly.

Sad footnote:  the one Bengals draft day trade over the last five years?  In 2004, the Bengals traded the 24th pick to St. Louis for the 26th pick and a fourth rounder.  The 24th pick in the 2004 NFL Draft?  Steven Jackson, he of the 90 catch season in 2006.  The 26th pick?  Chris Perry, he of the 35 games in five seasons.  The public reasoning for liking Perry over Jackson?  Perry fit in better with the Bengals passing oriented offense.  I'm glad the Bengals fired the guy who made that call.  What's that you say?  They didn't?  The guy owns the team?  And he's quite possibly a sociopath?  Comforting.

More Confirmation of Top Heavy Draft

NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock is confirming what has been rumored around NFL camps:  Teams in the top 10 that won't be choosing from Jason Smith, Matt Stafford, Eugene Monroe, or Aaron Curry are terrified.

According to Mayock, everyone in the top 10 is looking to trade down, both because of the lack of a sure-fire pick and the economics of paying big guaranteed money to an unproven player.

Like we said earlier today, the Bengals have a serious decision to make by next Saturday.

Drugstore List Draft Preview

Former Mariemont pharmacist Jerry Jones has been pumping out The Drugstore List for 32 years now, and is one of the most respected draft publications in the business. 

It's always a great day when I receive that yellow booklet in the mail three times a year (October, January, and late March).  You can find more information right here.

Briefly, here are the top five at positions (and where they are projected to be drafted) that the Bengals need to desperately upgrade:  Offensive line, defensive line, running back, linebacker.

A - Picks 1-10
B - Picks 11-19
C- Picks 21 & on

Center:

Alex Mack, California (1C)
Max Unger, Oregon (2B)
Eric Wood, Louisville (2B)
Antonie Caldwell, Alabama (3C)
Jonathan Luigs, Arkansas (3C)

Offensive Guard:

Duke Robinson, Oklahoma (2B)
Andy Levitre, Oregon State (2C)
Kraig Urbik, Wisconsin (3A)
Herman Johnson, LSU (3C)
Thomas Lang, Eastern Michigan (3C)

Bengals In Trouble at #6

After spending a lot of time looking at the draft board and where most experts thing the prospects will land at picks 1-5, the Bengals have a huge decision staring them in the face at number six.

If we go on the assumption that the Bengals do not move up or down in the first round of the draft, these five are fairly certain to be off the board by the time Cincinnati is on the clock:

Matt Stafford, QB, Georgia

Jason Smith, OT, Baylor

Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia

Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest

Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech

The Bengals then stare a mountain of a man, Andre Smith, in the face at #6.  Previously a #1 overall projection, Smith had a horrible combine and pro day...essentially blowing the two biggest job interviews of his life to this point.  Not exactly someone that you want to invest over $20 million guaranteed.  Last year, Vernon Gholston of the NY Jets received a contract of five years, $32 million, with $21 million guaranteed and a max value of $50 million.