WhoDeyRevolution

Zimmer Situation Is Looking Like Boomer in '97

After back to back statement wins against Balitmore and Pittsburgh, and three straight games of defensive brilliance, Mike Zimmer's stock has never been higher.  He is a free agent after this year, and many have him on the short list of head coaching hires going into the off-season. 

The Bengals have a decision to make.  Regardless of how this season ends up, Zimmer is going to attract a lot of attention from around the league.  He has taken a horrific defense and turned them into a unit that is playing (as of right now) tougher than anyone in the AFC, and arguably the NFL.  He did that by having a system where he identified his type of players, and then went out and got them...be it through the draft, free agency or off the scrap heap.  I truly believe the two biggest reasons why this team is 7-2 right now is because of stability at the center position and Mike Zimmer. 

Every year there are firings, and some teams will have a lot of cash to throw at Zimmer to be their next head coach.  Throw into the mix that after this year's tragedy with Zimmer's wife, it would be very understandable if Zimmer wanted a fresh start in a new city, possibly to be closer with his kids. 

Flashback to 1997, when Boomer Esiason returned to Cincinnati after stops in New York with the Jets and in Arizona.  Esiason took over for Blake-mania, and went 4-1 as a starter with a 13/2 TD to INT ratio.  The Bengals finished 7-9 after a 1-7 start, and Boomer was ready to comeback for at least one more season (if the price was right).  Mike Brown, however, didn't offer Boomer a contract, instead wanting him to the take the opportunity that ABC was affording him to become the new guy in the booth for Monday Night Football.  Brown felt that this was a great way for Boomer to start his career into broadcasting, and being on MNF was too much to pass up.  Or maybe he didn't want to actually pay him...with Jeff Blake already under contract.  Or maybe it was a little of both.  (To be fair, Brown has always paid quarterbacks, so I think it was a genuine feeling that the MNF shot was too good for Boomer to pass up, along with the fact that he was going to draft a QB in 1998 or 1999 to be the centerpiece of Paul Brown Stadium when it opened in 2000).

Regardless, Boomer did head for a forgettable run in the Monday Night Football booth with Al Michaels, and the Bengals floundered for another five seasons until Marvin Lewis's arrival in 2003.

Here's the bottom line...

Defensive Preview Part Three: Stopping the Run

A good run defense is the last piece to a defensive puzzle. Not having one isn't worse than struggling to contain the passing game, but giving up five yards a pop, succumbing to the playaction pass and struggling to make comebacks are frustrating results without it.

The Bengals were fortunate enough to have the eight best run defense in DVOA last season, at -8.1% (negative is above average for defense). The advanced ranking looks better than traditional stats like Y/A because of the tough offenses faced; the unadjusted DVOA (VOA) was -4.6% This was far from the performance in 2007, where the D ranked twenty-seventh.

Bengals Defensive Players Not the Only Ones Who Weren't Top 10 Material in 2008

Not to pile onto the "Camp Postcards" article from yesterday, but the second item really got me thinking:

The Bengals finished a surprising 12th in the NFL in total defense in '08 (it was by far their best performance since 2001), but that ranking was inflated in that they spent so much time way behind in games, allowing opposing offenses to ease up on the accelerator. "The offenses may have been running a little bit more, because we weren't playing from ahead a lot, and I don't think we were quite top 10 material," says second-year defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer.

Seems like a nice little bit of humility from a coach that improved a defense significantly in his first year in Bengaldom until you actually look at the numbers.  The chart below shows how our defense performed by week in 2008:

That's right, the defense actually gave up significantly more yards/play in the second half than in the first. In only three of the games did the defense give up fewer yards per play in the second half than they did in the first, and that's including 11 kneeldowns to end blowouts. Don't worry, it's not some statistical anomaly, they also gave up more significantly more points in the 2nd half (216) than they did in the first (148).

What's worse, the fact that Ben Reiter didn't bother to check the data before proclaiming his theory or that Mike Zimmer didn't appear to know either.