A few odds and ends before tomorrow’s game…
- Hobspin has a great new article up on the buzz around a special team’s unit that currently ranks 15th in DVOA. Granted, Mike Nugent has nailed all ten of his field goal attempts all season, and after the joys last year of watching a guy named Clint Stitser spasm his way to two missed PAT’s and the whole unit work its way to the 28th rank in DVOA, this season appears a revelation. However, there are two problems with Hobspin’s point. One, as I’ll continue to proclaim to the day I die of multiple cleat-wounds to the chest, kicking accuracy is not consistent year-to-year and thus not an actual skill. Nugent, like all kickers with high field-goal percentages, will regress sooner than later. Second, Brandon Tate, he of the average kickoff and punt return numbers, really doesn’t seem like that explosive a returner. All he does on punt returns is make a bunch of fancy moves that make Bengals fans gasp with anticipation before realizing that he’s been taken down for a single-digit gain, and also that they’re still wasting their time watching Mikey Boy’s footballers. Hobspin’s implication that Tate will soon become a great returner because he’s an explosive player (which somehow hasn’t led to any results in 2+ NFL seasons) and is being coached by the immortal Darrin Simmons (whose credentials are lazily awed at by Hobspin because of the Bengals ’05 and ’09 playoff berths, during which his unit ranked 14th and 21st, respectively) really doesn’t make any sense. Special teams won’t be a struggle this season like last year—it just won’t be especially strong.
- Football Outsiders has some interesting data in a recent column, distinguishing early-season offensive sack numbers by whether they were given up long after the snap (3 seconds or more) or shortly after (2.5 seconds or less). So far, the Bengals have conceded the sixth-most “long snaps”. The Bengals' just below-average adjusted sack rate for this season, based on this, is a testament to the offensive line (mostly Andrew Whitworth’s elite play and the others’ non-Levi Jones-ness) and also the skill players like Jermaine Gresham and the backs who have stayed in to pass block. Many sacks have been due to Andy Dalton holding on to the ball and not porous blocking, showing that Dalton still has much developing to do (shocking) and that the Bengals offense might benefit from opening things up a bit. Right now, the Bengals receivers are having trouble getting open quickly, facing double-teams (especially AJ Green) without tight ends and backs to consistently take the attention away from them; this problem can be reduced by leaving less men in to block, which the o-line, especially with the return of Bobbie Williams, might be able to handle.
- The game against the Jaguars, like most of them at this point, serves as a barometer for where the Bengals are. Jacksonville has played like one of the worst teams in the league, with a decent defense but perhaps the worst offense in the NFL. For the Bengals to prove that they’ve made progress, that they actually aren’t a bottom-dwelling team, they need to not just win the game, but do so in a more convincing fashion than against Cleveland or Buffalo. As long as the Bengals can stop Maurice Jones-Drew and Dalton limits his mistakes, they should be fine; if the defense can’t stop the run even when facing a rookie quarterback and Dalton can’t avoid stupid plays even when the opposing offense can’t do anything, then it’ll be yet another close game. And yes, I do realize that the Jaguars are actually favored tomorrow, but I'm not sure how many people in Las Vegas watched Blaine Gabbert last week.
- Just a quick reminder, even though most people probably don’t need it: if the Bengals win tomorrow, getting above .500 and within half-a-game of first (because yeah, that’s a possibility), don’t go to any games this season. You want to watch Andy Dalton and AJ Green and Jermaine Gresham on good teams, playing in important and well-publicized games? Force change; force good ‘ole Mikey Boy to care about limiting our dissatisfaction with his mom-and-pop organization. This is the only way we can one day reveal we’re Bengals fans without making a self-deprecating joke!
Also, Al Davis has died. That only leaves Mike Brown and Ralph Wilson in competition for most out-of-touch owner (with Jerry Jones as a dark horse candidate).
Posted by: Wyatt | October 08, 2011 at 12:21 PM
Also, this is Peter King's breakdown of Bengals/Jags from yesterday:
"Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-3)
You know what I love about the Bengals being ranked first in the league on defense after a quarter of the season? Maybe some owner who knows what he's doing will say, "I need to interview Mike Zimmer if I change coaches after the season." Quick: Name one impact defender for the Bengals -- Jonathan Fanene and Leon Hall don't count; too obvious. A whole bunch of people have to be playing well for the Bengals to be allowing 3.1 yards per rush and 57-percent completions by opposing QBs."
Fanene? Really?
Posted by: Wyatt | October 08, 2011 at 03:18 PM
Peter King is pretty smart there.
Posted by: GetRidofMikeBrown | October 08, 2011 at 05:02 PM
I went to the Bengals-Raiders game in 2009. Got a front row ticket at the 50. Lechler's wife and two daughters were 2 seats down in the same row. Of course the 7-2 Bengals lost that day to the 2-7 Raiders. Brat shut the play calling down after the first quarter and cross eyed Caldwell dropped the kickoff which allowed the Raiders to win....... Sigh.
Before the game I saw a big crowd gathering near the stadium entrance. I went to check it out and they were gathering because Al Davis had arrived. I was 10 feet from the guy as he used a walker to get to the stadium.
Half the fans were cheering him, the other half were screaming things like "hire a general manger" or "we need a plan Al". Al Davis stopped to respond and everyone went silent. Al says "you wanna know what my plan is?......... We've got 7 games left and we are gonna win every god damned one of them!"
Cheers from all.
I live very close to Oakland and debate Raiders fans about who is the worst owner in the league. They concede every time when I quote Mike Brown's stats. But Al is gone now and the throne is owned by Mike. Al and Mike may have both had stubborn ways of running their teams, the difference is Al WANTED to win every week. Mike doesn't.
There was some debate about who was the worst owner in the NFL. It always was and still is our toadstool. Put it another way, there will be a moment of silence tomorrow at every game for Al Davis' passing. When MFB dies there will be a parade. We won't be sad, we'll be thrilled like Jesus arrived again.
Thanks Mike.
Posted by: JM | October 08, 2011 at 11:29 PM
Oakland could start by building a new stadium. That place is a sh*thole. It's scary!
Posted by: GetRidofMikeBrown | October 09, 2011 at 12:00 AM
It may be a shithole, but it also is a great example of home field advantage. Unlike, for example, the Bengals, who play in a stadium more akin to a library. I went to California on holiday (I'm from London) and went to see what the fuss was about with the Raiders and all those 'crazy fans'. Just like another night out in London really (without the riots)
Posted by: DorsetBengal07 | October 09, 2011 at 11:12 AM
I was thinking the same thing, JM...
When you look back, Al Davis has always been a bit of a maverick... and so what if maybe for the last 10 or 15 years he's been trying to build the team that's winning games now. CBS showed a list of first he did; first black head coach, first female CEO, formed the conferences... that's pretty amazing. But above all, he wanted to win.
Mike Brown has got nothing even close to that on his resume. Mortality is a muse that comes to all men at one time or another, and you have to wonder if Mike is watch his fellow owner and saying - wow, they will revel in my death, and no one, not a sinle stadium, not even my own, will pause to morn me. I wonder if he even considers that?
Probably not. So much the sadder.
Posted by: guttersnake | October 09, 2011 at 06:05 PM
Lol, LMAO at the Oakland comments i agree epic fail!
Posted by: Stu | October 10, 2011 at 06:38 AM
So did Hobspin jinx the ST on purpose or is it just a coincidence that The Nuge missed an extra point?
Posted by: Todd | October 10, 2011 at 06:50 AM
Interestingly, that missed PAT won the game for us.
If we were down three there, we wouldn't have gone for it on 4th and 6. We would have kicked the field goal and the game would have likely gone to overtime, where who knows what would have happened. Instead, we were down 4 and needed the touchdown. So we went for it, converted, and got the winning score.
Posted by: Dan R. | October 10, 2011 at 10:36 AM
Before this thread ends, can we just talk for a minute about how incredibly bad Brandon Tate is?... I mean, special team was sort of the topic.
My game was on right next to the Denver game on sunday, and just in case you missed it, the San Diego Chargers respected Quan Crosby so much that they punted away and kicked off so deep into the endzone that he didn't touch the ball all night... something crazy like seven or eight times. Meanwhile, back in Everbank; the illustrious Mr. Tate has a player punch the ball out of his poorly disiplined arms, purposefully does not catch an easily returnable ball that rolls/bounces somewhere within safety distance of the endzone, and only returns one ball for more than ten yards, which had the Bengals average drive starting behind there own twenty.
Because I'm an informing kidda guy and I like to have other people pay attention to the Bengals (godness knows, ESPN isn't going to help me), my current ritual is that when Brandon Tate is back to return, I will buy a round to anyone at the paying attention at the bar if Tate returns it for more than twelve yards. (I know they are pay attention because you have to have your palm resting flat over the mouth of your beer in order for it to count... this way I know your at least sort of watching my game and not just sitting there) I also know that Tate has done this less than five times this season... because I've only had to buy a handful of beers.
Point is that Brandon Tate is awful. What's worse is that this year, like 2009, we are very much defense and less offense. With a defense that gets your offense the ball more often than not, a solid special teams returner has the critical job of getting your offense into a position to score rather than leaving them pinned at the impact of the punt. Bradon Tate right now is a single point of failure for this team. If he returned a third of his blown returns for just ten more yards than he currently is, then one in three drives likely becomes a field goal at a minimum. Now these games are not last minute barn-burners that leave me lashing out at my barroom patrons.
I swear to god, if Adam Jones or Bernard Scott aren't returning the ball when we come back from the bye week, I will lose my mind.
Couple of last thoughts:
- What about that hit that Dalton put on the poor sonofabitch that picked him? Wow!
- AJ's long touchdown route was extremely pretty... if you didn't see that pass play in full, try and google that. Makes you mad that Shipley is out!
- Hawkings and Peerman have looked great on special teams. I mean, really really good.
- Nelson continues to tackle poorly and react slowly. Three dropped passes by Jag WRs could have potentially exploited his weak / blown coverage. I'm loving Crocker, but Nelson is a liability... where the fuck is Mays?!
- Suprisingly, Nate Livings has been fairly decent the past few games. However, not yesterday. Didn't he have something like three holding calls? Ffffffff.
- Finally, to the Benson/Scott/Leonard debate... yes, Benson couldn't get the run going, and yes, Leonard and Scott did have marginally better games, but what is clutch is that one of the best runs of the game was the touchdown run by Bernard Scott. And you know why I loved it? Because they lined up with a two back set - Leonard was in the back field with Scott. More of that, Mr. Gruden, more of that!
Posted by: guttersnake | October 10, 2011 at 01:41 PM
Guttersnake,
Tate's averaging nine yards per return, which is slightly below the league average. His 19 yard return in the 4th quarter yesterday set up a late go-ahead field goal. Last year Cosby averaged 7.5, which put him close to the bottom. Tate's made some terrible decisions, including at least two yesterday, but right now our punt return unit is at worst a wash compared to where it's been the last couple years, and you definitely get the sense that he's come close to busting a couple. I'd like to see more, but I hardly wish for the halcyon days of Quan Cosby.
I don't know why everyone is so focused on hating Tate and the return game. I'd be more concerned about our lack of dominance in the run game. That's what's really turned what should be easy wins into close ones, and what should be close wins into losses so far.
I agree with most of the rest, except for Nate Livings. He had only one holding call yesterday, not "something like three," but he has been atrocious all year. Terrible. He gave up one yesterday to Mincey where he was pushed straight back into Dalton and Mincey just tackled them both. Eric Ghiacuic could teach him a thing or two about blocking.
Posted by: Dan R. | October 10, 2011 at 02:32 PM
Where's wch with his anti-Dalton rhetoric this week?
Posted by: Wyatt | October 10, 2011 at 05:40 PM
All the Bengals safeties pretty much stink to hog heaven since David Fulcher.
Nelson is out of position and Crocker can't cover a tight end without a lasso and an anchor tied to the guy's foot. On this team Mays might be a step up, even though he's a huge draft bust.
Posted by: GetRidofMikeBrown | October 10, 2011 at 07:43 PM
Anyone else notice that Benson seems to try and run outside this year as compared to the last couple where he would be happy to find a gab between tackles, take the 4 yards and sometimes break a tackle for 7-8? I'm not smart enough to know if it's a different play than last year's bread and butter but I'd rather gain 2-3 then lose 3-4 which happens half the time he tries to go outside.
Dalton also seems to get the handoff to the RBs alot close to the line of scrimmage this year. It used to drive me nuts when Carson would hand the ball off 5-6 yards in the backfield.
Tate is somebody's pet project. He was also supposed to be a 3 or 4 WR yet he never makes the field. He is a waste of a roster spot at the moment. I agree with G-snake, Hawk or PacMan does that job, we cut Tate and (awaits backlash) sign TJ Houshmandzadeh
Posted by: WhoDeyUK | October 11, 2011 at 03:42 AM
so wait, in the comments I read:
Complaints about the empty stadium, but urging people not to go
complaints about Benson trying outside but not understanding his 5 yds a carry average
calling al davis a terrible owner (3 time super bowl winner) but saying it is ok because he wanted to win.
saying mike doesn't want to win (which you can't be that dumb to believe that, I mean come on. There is no way at all he wants to lose ever. No rational thinking person believes it. Yes, he may not know how to win, but that is not the same as wanting to lose)
good talks here...
Posted by: WhoDeyFans | October 11, 2011 at 01:16 PM
Who Dey Fans: I only wish those of us visiting this site could create the kind of groundbreaking commentary that your brilliant readers create. A variety of fans tap into this site and (surprise) there may be some inconsistency between their remarks; it doesn't detract from, but rather improves the content of the site. The uniformity found in your comment section (cut and pasted below for your convenience), however, smacks of the Berman-like sentimental vapidity that makes most of this readership cringe. Stop fishing.
Darrell Williams says:
October 10, 2011 at 11:07 pm
I love watching this team and I wouldn’t call a 6-10 season a calamity. It’s a long season and they are still winning. I’ve seen what i need to see and that’s heart. If they can keep that it’s a win season. and screw all those supposed experts. Bob and Tom proved years ago a chicken can be just as accurate picking winners.
Reply
Seubs says:
October 10, 2011 at 11:16 pm
I also wrote that last week in my post here. http://whodeyfans.com/2011/10/04/kids-gonna-be-alright/
Reply
Nate says:
October 11, 2011 at 7:06 am
I might be in the minority here, but I think they would have at least one more win with Carson. He was flat out dominant in the last two games, and he didn’t have A.J. Green either. That said, I like the “Three Musketeers” mentality of this team. All for one. One for all.
Reply
Bill says:
October 11, 2011 at 1:04 pm
And I may be in the minority on this one, but I think that Chad’s departure is as much or more of a factor than Carson’s. I love that none of the receivers are above run blocking.
It is too bad that he isn’t talking to the media, because I would love to know how his Diva5000-powered brain is processing the fact that a rookie on his old team (working with a rookie QB) is on pace to put up almost 1300 yards, while he (working with Tom Brady) is on pace for under 450. Did I just hear a motherboard short-circuit?
Posted by: CJ | October 11, 2011 at 05:29 PM
Well, the Bengals beat the Jags, I missed it
(not off work til 4:30pm on Sundays)
What happened there, anyone?
[ I refuse to get the current breakdown from bengals.com ]
Posted by: Hofbraunow | October 11, 2011 at 07:33 PM
@ Dan R. Fair enough. I didn't get to watch more than two games of last years season because of a deployment to Afghanistan, so my rememberance of Quan was from 2009, and admittedly, I may be remembering it foundly because we were winning. Regardless, the point is that we cut a decent WR so we could get this amazing returner, and frankly, I'm not seeing it. ...and we need a big returner. Maybe Quan wasn't the answer, but Tate sure as heck ain't either. Take the guttersnake challenge at the bar next week. Don't worry, I'll keep track!
Posted by: guttersnake | October 11, 2011 at 07:55 PM
@Hofbrau:
Bengals-Jags was a combination of good D and clutch play by Dalton, and incompetence by Jags.
Opening drive Jax sliced through Cincy's D like hot knife through butter, reminding one of the bad old days of the 1990s. Bad tackling, no coverage, etc.
In the rest of the first half the Bengals held the Jags to a field goal when they had first and goal at about the two after a pick thanks to a nice tackle by Dalton. And another field goal after a long run by MJD where he was down and the Lewis didn't get the challenge flag out. So that's some clutch defense but also speaks to some bad play selection and design on the part of Jax when they got down inside the 10 -- should probably have just run a lot more MJD or throw to the tight end since the Bengals never cover the tight end.
In the second half the third quarter was all defense and incompetent offense. Jax eventually went up on a busted coverage 74 yard TD pass (nobody else in the tee-vee screen, thanks Reggie Nelson). Bengals got the ball thanks to short punt and drove for the go-ahead TD. Jax got the ball back with reasonable chance to tie, and fumbled it on bad snap. Ballgame.
Apart from the really awful pick that Dalton threw (that could have been a pick six) he played well. Running game did nothing all day (Benson running into either his own man or a defender who had shoved the OL back five yards). Bengals Defense, as I said, was clutch... but not on the 74 yard TD or the opening drive... which makes you wonder how much of it was D and how much of it was Jax.
Posted by: GetRidofMikeBrown | October 11, 2011 at 10:40 PM
Another Black Out! Love It! Keep your money in your wallets and never give it to MFB! NEVER!
Posted by: TigerJ@w | October 12, 2011 at 05:59 PM
I second the blackout comment. They have a winning record and the colts should be a sure win.......... And they still can't sell out.
Keep it up, something has to change. Let's just make sure it's not our resolve to want the best for our team and hate our piece of shit owner. I love those empty seats.
On another note. Is there any question who the MVP of the NFL season is?
It's not Rodgers or Brady, it is clearly and undoubtedly Peyton Manning. The Colts could be undefeated right now. One player is the difference in 0-5 and 5-0. Weird idea, but his absence proves his value. I'm not a Manning fan either.
Posted by: JM | October 12, 2011 at 06:34 PM
Who Dey Fans, talk to Raiders fans, they appreciate and celebrate his record, but really hated him since the Gruden/Callahan thing.
You believe Mike Brown wants to win? Really? He would RATHER win, than lose. But a earnest strong desire, backed up by effort, action, change, or dollars are nowhere to be found. If mike WANTED to win they would have. Put it another way, if Al Davis or Jerry Jones had the 2005 team, do you believe there would have been one season afterward when they had cap space? Or would they have sacrificed the future, and spent over the cap to win now? It's rhetorical.
Mike Brown would RATHER win, that doesn't mean he cares to.
Posted by: JM | October 12, 2011 at 06:48 PM
Good points, JM. I actually have to agree with the point about Manning, and I thinks its appropriate to note on this site because when I looked at the roster during the early preseason, I chalked this week off to some vacation time with the family... I have since cancelled those plans to the ire of my wife.
However, I would withhold Brady from that running right now. The only reason the Pats are still even being mentioned in power ranking is because of him. Remove Brady, and you'll see that the Pats and their abysmal defense will plummet to the cellar of the AFC East...
That's one of the things that I like out the Bengals right now; there is no clear MVP on the squad. On defense, you could argue its Zimmer, but as far as players go, its very much a coordinated effort of good players led by better players. Offensively, I honestly thought that when Shipley went down, we were looking at the same sort of situation that Palmer/Ocho found themselves in 2009 when Chris Henry when down. The difference now seems to be that besides Green, Dalton has a fantastic TE in Gresham and legitimate alternatives in Caldwell and "Sticky" Simpson. On any given play we have Ced/Scott/Bry in the back field. Even Dalton has ol' Bruce (who is neither old, nor all that bad...) With the exception of our Offensive Line, we're actually kinda deep offensively... granted the offense is young and relatively weak sauce right now.
Posted by: guttersnake | October 13, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Rumor is that Mike Brown turned down a trade offer that entailed Palmer for Aaron Curry and Douglas Baldwin plus a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd depending on performance. Way to go Mike, I know all you want is to pocket the 11 Million, but this team is getting better each week.
Posted by: Tyler from Cincy | October 13, 2011 at 01:31 PM
I had got a dream to begin my company, but I did not have got enough amount of cash to do this. Thank God my close colleague advised to take the business loans. Therefore I used the college loan and made real my dream.
Posted by: KarlaHull25 | December 20, 2011 at 08:40 PM