WhoDeyRevolution

Friday Ramblings

Dalton v Newton

I had little to no doubt that Dalton would perform better than Newton out of the gates as a NFL QB.  This is mostly because a)I know Dalton ran the offense at TCU for four straight years and b)I'm told that offense had more in common with pro offenses than Auburn's (note:  I probably should have had more doubt).  But that's kind of crazy considering Newton was the number one overall pick.  It's also kind of crazy considering that if the two had played in college last year, I'm confident that Newton would have fairly easily gotten the upperhand.  Cam Newton (assisted by a great offensive coordinator, Gus Malzahn) blitzed the AAA NFL (SEC) almost by himself.  He was fucking outrageous.

Dalton was good in college.  But stick him in the SEC West with Auburn's team and he would have been lucky to lose less than 3 games.  Yet Dalton seems much more advanced right now.  There's a couple things to take away from that.

First, raw talent should be somewhere around 5th or 6th on the list of things to look for when evaluating a college QB for a NFL job.  What Cam Newton had to do at QB at Auburn appears to have little to do with what he has to do at QB now.  And of all the positions to learn from scratch in the entire professional sports world, QB seems easily the most difficult.  I would not want to bet my organization's future on it.

Second, the rookie wage scale greatly reduces the downside risk to Carolina should they need to give Newton a long time to develop and even if he eventually fails as a NFL QB.  The things Cam needs to develop to succeed seem very hard to learn and may take a lot of time even though his raw physical skills give him a margin of error Andy Dalton could only dream of.  Last year, if Carolina took that risk, the downside would have been $50 million in guaranteed money.  This year it's $22 million.  Last year, taking Dalton over Newton would have been a much more intelligent risk/reward decision.  This year, taking a chance on Cam makes sense, even if last night, it looked kind of dumb.

Rookie Wage Scale

The Bengals, because their ownership insists on doing everything themselves, often find themselves drafting within the top 15 of the draft.  The rookie wage scale now protects them from the dumb decisions they often make.  I ran the numbers once, the Bengals actually draft worse when they pick in the top 15 of the first round than in other slots.  However, now, when they draft poorly in the top 15, they won't pay a huge financial price.

Now, part of me LOVES that they had to pay a huge financial price.  Why?  Because that comes straight out of the wealth of the Brown Family.  Anything that slows down their wealth accumulation is a plus in my book given the completely ungrateful way they take advantage of taxpayers and the community.

But clearly, the more I think about it, the rookie wage scale is the biggest structural game changer for the Bengals under Mike Brown.  It basically does two things:

1. Allows the Brown Family to accumulate more wealth
2. Makes the Brown Family pay less on and off the field for their poor management

(commenter Wyatt rightly points out, it also eliminates holdouts, which is hugely beneficial for on field performance) The first point helps only the Brown Family.  The second point helps both performance of the team and management.  For the next two years, the second part is irrelevant because the Bengals can just take all the savings from the rookie wage scale and just pocket it.  But starting in 2013, they will have to start meeting the salary floor, which means the money they save on rookies will have to be spent on the rest of the squad.  The Bengals may not spend it wisely because they are terrible, terrible managers of football teams.  However, by sheer luck, occasionally it will be spent wisely (though they are trying to extend their best players now, that's positive, we'll see if they need to pay that premium to keep them around however).

Structurally, the Bengals are less fucked going forward under the new CBA than they were under the last one.  So even I think returning to the Lost Decade is likely impossible.  The new baseline without Palmer will certainly be low, but we never be as bad as the Lost Decade.

And my main fear is that the Bengals will be just good enough to string fans along as they have before, but never good enough to win a superbowl.

A WDR Guide to Bengals Rebuilding: Have Low Expectations & No Patience

For better or worse, I get only brief exposure to local sports talk radio in Cincinnati since I no longer live there.  However, when work presents me with some mindless tasks from time to time it occurs to me to listen in live on the interwebs to get a feel for the zeitgeist surrounding the Bengals back home.  Yesterday happened to be one of those days, so I checked in on the always reasonable Mo Egger.

The general theme in Bengaldom appears to be this:  Bengals fans appear to be pretty much writing off this year's group as a giant suck and they seem pretty firey about it.  His response to this amounts to saying, I get that they suck, but what did you expect with this group of young players including a rookie QB?  Lower your expectations folks.  He counsels, have patience with the current group of players even though the franchise itself has exhausted your patience.

That would be fine advice if the Bengals were a normal NFL team.  But of course, they are not.  Just to start, we are the only team in the NFL that ever decided to voluntarily rebuild because they created such a terrible environment their franchise QB straight up quit.  Starting over with a rookie QB was a completely avoidable outcome and fans have no obligation to support the team during this rebuild.

Second, what can you even expect out of a Bengals rebuilding project?  From 1991-2002, they achieved the miraculous state of permanently rebuilding for over a decade.  A feat only matched by perhaps the Clippers and the Knicks in the modern era of professional sports (update:  and Browns since their return to the NFL, as WhoDeyFans points out in the comments...I personally think they will fix that going forward).  This team does not dedicate the resources necessary to build anything consistent.

Third, we have already witnessed the perfect storm for rebuilding under Mike Brown.  Beginning in 2003, we had an outrageous offensive line, a boatload of core talent at skill positions, a franchise QB just launching his career, a serviceable if flawed defense, a coach who actually had legitimate influence on personnel decisions, and Mike Brown even had stepped back from total authoritarian rule.  AND MANAGEMENT STILL SQUANDERED IT ALL.  We got two playoff berths, no playoff wins, a wasted career of a potential Hall of Fame QB, and a Bengalized Marvin.

Does the Dalton Era seem as promising as the Palmer Era to you?  Clearly not. This rebuilding era starts from an even lower base than the Carson rebuilding era.  Management shows no interest in dedicating the resources to actually improving.  In fact, they will probably just treat the next two years as a laboratory to see if by some alchemy they create gold with young players and retreads while maintaining a low salary and raking in low-risk profits.

So definitely have low expectations for this season as Mo advises, but there is no point in trying to have any patience at all.  Having patience implies that there will be a reward in the future as the team develops.  We have no evidence the Bengals franchise can develop a team in the first place.  Instead, any patience you have this year in expectation of better things to come will likely be rewarded with a half decade where the Bengals compete at a level above the Lost Decade but below playoff caliber.  Call it Jeff Blake Quo.

But let's say you are slightly deranged and hopelessly optimistic, you're probably telling yourself something like "hey, so the offense will have growing pains this year, but the defense has lots of talent starting to come into its own (Atkins, Dunlap, Rey, Hall, etc...) and Zimmer leading the helm, so NEXT year if the offense starts to come together we'll have two decent units and we'll be right in the thick again."

Then you realize Zimmer's not under contract after 2012.  In other words, the single best thing about this franchise may walk out the door right when the Bengals might actually be forced to spend money on talent.

Then you realize, it's hard for us to keep our young awesome talent because we have to pay a premium over market value for them to stay a Bengal and tolerate the Siberia of the NFL (JJoe).  So maybe Hall leaves, or maybe Atkins leaves after him, or maybe Dunlap leaves after him.

It's a cycle of failure.  And it repeats itself.  The Dalton Era will be no exception.  Having patience with the Bengals will forever and always be pointless.

Points of Interest for Tonight

Tonight is the second game of several ass-whoopings this season. Now with three weeks of cramming, attempting to improve upon the mistakes from last week, and facing a team that is relatively unchanged and has played as a cohesive unit for the past two years; this game has the potential to be even uglier than last week. 

While Reedy and Hobson may try to make this game smell as good as they can on their sites, here at WDR we are going to help you prep what you should be looking for tonight if you are dumb enough to actually watch it.

 

Offense

1. The chess match - This is the second big test to see if Gruden can compete at the NFL level and how much of an upgrade he brings to Bratkowski's shoes. Last week he proved he is not as bad as we feared. Tonight he faces the fat man with a foot fetish, Rex Ryan, who is one of the top defensive minds in the game.

Similar to last week, the key indicator is if Ryan just makes the offense look stupid. If plays are constantly being blown up or we see several three downs and out then we will know Gruden was just another David Shula pick up by Mike Brown. If Gruden is better than we think, he needs to demonstrate the ability to comprehend Ryan's complex scheme and attack its weaknesses and reducing his QB's exposure to the pressure. Unfortunately Ryan's defenses don't have many weaknesses and is why I don't forsee Gruden having a chance in this contest. If they can move the ball by keeping the defense from getting into a rythm, and the first team can actually produce a touchdown, then Gruden may be better than we thought.

2. The Offensive Line - One thing to watch is how soon they replace Nasty if he has a repeat performance of last week. As we pointed out in this article earlier in the week, Livings is not the man for the job at LG. Unfortuantely MFB, again failed to address this hole in free agency allowing his new QB the potential to be fed to the wolves. Hopefully Boling can upgrade the LG spot at somepoint in the season, sooner than later preferably. Regardless, the rest of the OL has a tough matchup tonight. If they are going to have any chance to keep the game competative they need to be able to open running lanes for Benson, and provide time for Dalton. Running the ball against a Ryan defense is possible, but very difficult, but it is susceptable to big plays.

3. Dalton - This is another great game to see if Dalton possesses the intangibles as advertised. This game will be more about testing his intangibles than his ability to throw a football. He is going to face a lot of pressure: both mentally and physically.

For this test, he needs to show that he can comprehend the complex blitz scheme that is going to be thrown at him and do it while under pressure. It is going to be an almost impossible task to complete for a couple of reasons. First, he has never experienced a scheme like he is facing tonight; second, they don't really game plan in the preseason so they probably did not even practice against Ryan's scheme during the week; and third he has now only had three weeks under center to learn the offense. So basically he is attempting to try to lose his virginity without ever being exposed to a smut mag. He has little to no chance of being a smooth operator in this situation.

If he can show that he won't let the pressure get to him and is able to get the ball down field, that is a good sign of his natural ability that we can enjoy before it eventually gets Bengalized. If Dalton can walk out tonight, with a 50% completion rate and only 1 INT, then that will be a good night for him.

 

Defense

1. DL rotation - Same question as last week. Does the rotation that Zimmer created midway through last year's season improve is the primary question. With no major investment in a run stuffing DT or DE during the offseason, and now with the removal of Tank Johnson, the Bengals are counting on their young players to develop and take the next step. Last week, Zimmer focused on stopping the run, and they successfully controlled the LOS holding the Lions to around 2.0 ypc. Tonight they need to prove they can do it against one of the best OL's in the game.

We may also finally get a sense of the 3rd down rotation since Dunlap may get his first game reps of the season. If they can generate pressure against this OL, then the defense may be in better shape then we thought after last week's performance. The stronger the defensive line, the less of a chance they get blown out of games during the regular season.

2. New LB corps - Last week showed Rey may have a top 10 MLB's instincts to take him to the ball. Tonight he needs to back that up since he is going to see a heavy dose of the run. Look for him to attack the LOS once he reads the running play. Again, if the DL can help keep blockers off of Rey and he is attacking, then he may be worth considering for those of you who play in fantasy leagues with IDP's.

Another serious weakness has been covering the middle of the field and opposing TE's. The Jets have torn Zimmer up using their TE's every time we faced them. Tonight should provide another good test to see if the bodies that Mike Brown brought in are any improvement to what we had last year.

3. The secondary is basically a lost cause for the season since Clements is really a downgrade at the CB spot, Jones is still out of the nickle due to his neck injury, and the safety spots have not been seriously addressed by this team for years so they are zero threat in the pass game. Tonight, we should at least see more Zimmer-like agressive press coverage after last week's shitty Breshnahan-like coverage. However it will be fun to see the Holmes vs. Hall battle again when they match up.

 

Guest Post: An Outsider's Perspective On The Bengals

As with anything you care maybe a little bit too much about, you always risk losing perspective on that very thing.  Forest for the trees and all that.  Here at WDR, we like to check ourselves from time to time to make sure all our ranting about Mike Brown is not misguided by listening to those in the broader NFL world.  A friend, former Eagles front office employee and born/raised Patriots fan sent us the following observations on Mike Brown and the Bengals.  In preview, yep, turns out he's still the worst.  Please read on though, what follows is a very articulate, exceptionally clear, well-reasoned, and evidence based piece on Mikey Boy.

Also, check out the great breakdown of Livings by Blesterov below-SwB

As an outsider to the bizarro football ecosystem of Cincinnati, it's hard not to sympathize with Bengals fans. It's even harder to fathom Mike Brown's motivation.

At first, it seems that Bengals' robber baron wants to operate the franchise to maximize profit regardless of how it affects his reputation or the on-field product. Although the Bengals' payroll averaged 17.7/32 from 2000-2009 (I use payroll because its a more accurate reflection of money spent than cap hit), in the year without salary cap (2010) they ranked 28/32, and now without an individual team salary floor they are currently slated to be somewhere between $40-50M under the cap. One could argue that the Bengals didn't aggressively spend in 2010 because they were reigning AFC North champions and anticipated a return of the salary cap in 2011. Similarly, free agency in 2011 is far from over, and the Bengals could end up considerably closer to the cap. Either way, when the spending restrictions of the old CBA were in place the Bengals were more spendthrift than average, and during the two seasons without those rules they have spent even less relative to other teams. Add in the lack of investment in training facilities and team personnel that caused contract disputes with Marvin Lewis, and the refusal to hire a GM, and it's easy to see how Brown has earned this characterization.

But Brown isn't Mr. Burns, staffing his plant with incompetents and uncaring about how the surrounding town is impacted by his penny-pinching practices solely in the name of monetary gain. If he were, why wouldn't he sell the naming rights to Paul Brown Stadium? That would reap huge revenues that wouldn't need to be shared with the rest of the league. Or why won't he release Carson Palmer when it is clear by this point that the demoralized quarterback will only serve as a salary cap albatross when he unretires?

The reason is unclear. Does Brown view himself as some bastion of the old guard, where protecting his father's name on the stadium and not releasing his QB from his contract purgatory are uncompromisable principles? Does he view modern scouting systems and upgraded facilities as passing fads that are ultimately secondary to winning because his father didn't need them to achieve his success? These would each be viable narratives if they weren't deeply flawed. What is so important about the contractual agreement, the word of Palmer to Brown when teams can unilaterally cut players and terminate their contracts when they want? Why would Brown be so opposed to modernizing his facilities and personnel practices out of allegiance to his father when Paul Brown was one of the great innovators in scouting and player development in the early NFL?

Ultimately there is only so much to be gained from guessing at Brown's psychology. He might just be a hypocritical curmudgeon. But it would seem that something would have to give between the potential driving factors behind his ownership decisions: profit and "principles". Especially in the wake of Johnathan Joseph's departure for the Texans when the Bengals clearly have more than enough resources to make a competing offer, it appears that Brown's principles in not upgrading his facilities, personnel, or freeing his hostage signal-caller have resulted in a higher-than-average price tag for players to don orange and black. If that is true, then the Bengals are likely looking at one of two potential scenarios.

1. Brown stands by his principles, pays above-market prices for a few free agents to come to the team to bring it over the salary floor. The Bengals become a collection of newly drafted players serving their time, players who have already served time and are not good enough to be given a second chance by the Eagles, and a few veterans who are looking to cash out.
2. Brown compromises his principles, making significant investment in team infrastructure, personnel, and player negotiations. The asking price for free agents declines over time, and the Bengals start to resemble other NFL franchises.

My own suspicion, assuming the individual team salary floor kicks in starting in 2013, is that Brown recognizes his team is a wreck right now, wants to gut it and take home as much profit during the next two years. In 2013, after he has stood his ground with Palmer, he will reevaluate how much spending is necessary.

In other words, the former.

Correct This Alexander!

I was reading Hob's Tuesday spin machine, and came across this little gem of a story (emphasis added):

LIVINGS LIVES: Offensive line coach Paul Alexander rolls his eyes at the criticism leveled at left guard Nate Livings in the wake of the sack he allowed Friday night. Everyone, it seems, wants Livings benched and Alexander's first question is, "Who replaces him?" And it reminds him of the heat guard Mike Goff took 10 years ago before he became a starter on some very good San Diego playoff teams.

"They don't know what the hell is going on," Alexander said of the critics. "I stood up for Goff all the time. He got run out of this town. Goff played until he was 35. I read the stuff about Nate. I don’t think it's fair about Nate. Other guys make mistakes and it's Nate's fault. I don't buy it. Nate is having a good camp."

Alexander loves his nickname. "Nasty." "No one calls him Nate. He's nasty, tough and smart." 

First of all, no one at the Enquirer or Bengals.com, as far as I have read, has written any complaints about Livings. Second, Alexander must really like this guy, because he wasn't watching the same game I was.

The first three offensive possessions that ended in INT, punt, and FG were the only drives of the game with first team against first team. Excluding the punt and FG plays to end the second and third drives, the Bengals offense ran a total of 14 plays advancing the ball a total of 76 yards. In those 14 plays Livings' assignments were responsible for the end of the play 4 times, one for a loss - a sack. Of those 14 plays, 6 plays were runs. Of those 6 running plays, Livings assignment made the tackle on 3 of them.

In summary, "Nasty's" blocking assignment was responsible for 50% of all run stops in last Friday's game. This is not being incorrectly blamed for other guys' mistakes; this is stating a fact based on repeated observation.

To prove we know what the hell is going on, let's go to the WDR Telestrator and look at the three running plays Livings didn't screw up:

Play 1 - First play of the second drive - 1 & 10 at Bengals 20 (7:50 1Q)

If "Nasty" continues his drive against Williams and does't disengage from his block, the backside DT is removed from the play. Benson then has open field ahead of him with only one person to beat, the safety standing at the 30 yd line. The backside CB (#26) would also have to take different angle to catch Benson, rather than helping to finish him off. Instead of a long gain, Benson is limited to only 6 yards.

 

Play 2 - Fifth play of the second drive - 2 & 6 at the Lions 49 (5:35 1Q)

Livings is flat out beat at the snap, loses leverage, and Williams is able to come from the backside to stop Benson, holding them to a 4 yard gain. Had "Nasty" made his block, Benson picks up at least another 2 yards for a first down. The next play was the incomplete play-action pass to force the punt and end the drive.

 

Play 3 - Fifth play of the third drive - 1 & 10 at the Lions 14 (1:22 1Q) 

 "Nasty" is again beat at the snap, loses leverage, and Williams is able to stop Benson, holding them to a 2 yard gain.

 

Here is a good example of what not to do against a swim move. Alexander called this "getting beat by jumping the snap"; I call it sucking.

 

Although three of the four plays went for positive yardage, "Nasty" was repsonsible for turning potential long gains into short ones. This is the difference between a college free agent starting at LG versus a talented first to third round pick at the spot. It is also shows the difference between a competent GM who understands the fundamentals of the game versus cheap-ass Mike Brown.

My favorite part of the interview was: "Who replaces him?"... if someone comes along better, Alexander says he'll play him. Fourth-rounderClint Boling played well at left guard Friday and has looked good this camp. But Alexander apparently feels the rookie and free-agent pickup Max Jean-Gilles aren't ready.

Paul, don't just sit there and blame the fans who are pointing fingers at this. How about manning up and joining the fight to get a real GM and professional front office over there to bring in high quality talent during free agency rather than just dumpster diving every offseason. I promise, it would make your job a hell of a lot more enjoyable.

 

 

Rick Reilly Bashes Mike Brown

ESPN Columnist Rick Reilly used his hugely popular column yesterday to bring the hammer down on our old nemesis Mike Brown for his hypocritical, cheap and hugely unsuccessful tenure as owner/GM of the Bengals.  My favorite lines include:

Brown's football career peaked upon birth. He was born the son of legendary football genius Paul Brown and has done zilch to remind anybody of him since....

...Brown is a hypocrite. He has cut hundreds of players before their contract was up and given them nothing. Why should Palmer live up to a deal that works only one way? If Palmer should suddenly go blind, would Brown still give him the money? Are you kidding? Brown is cheaper than your local Goodwill.

Brown makes four people do the work of eight. Most teams have four or five scouts; Brown keeps one or two...

Palmer, meanwhile, has left large portions of his body on the field for Brown. His nasty ACL and MCL tear in a 2006 playoff game, his ripped elbow in '08. He's worked alongside fools and pretenders, and all under an owner who could make the '72 Dolphins mediocre. And he's done it all without a single discouraging word about an owner who invented discouragement....

What I don't get is why the taxpayers of Cincinnati aren't boycotting. Mike Brown promised if they built him a stadium, he'd win. They built it. Brown has gone 72-103-1 since. The mayor should sue. Where's Jerry Springer when you need him?

Rick is right about taxpayers not boycotting.  Somehow, there are people who still think its a good idea to buy Bengals tickets and merchandise, probably using arguments like: "I just enjoy the entertainment of the NFL," and "Hey, at least we have a team in Cincinnati!" or, "A real fan supports the team no matter what!"  Pathetic.  Anyone who looks at this team objectively can see the incompetence.  And we need EVERY Bengals fan to spread the word - talk to your friends, family and neighbors and ask them to stop buying tickets, stop buying merchandise and stop supporting the Bengals until Mike Brown and family make some real changes to the team.

 

Bummer Plate

From Comrade Robert, who writes: "My one word description of Bengaldon." 

Bengals Still Selling Chad, Carson, TO Jersey's

According to the Cincinnati Business Courier, "A recent visit to the [Bengal's Pro Shop] revealed racks and racks of jerseys for [Ochocinco, Owens and Palmer]. In fact, there was more space devoted to Ochocinco, Owens and Palmer than any other players."

What, are Dalton and Green jersey's not selling?  My guess is that you are still going to see a LOT of 9, 81 and 85 jersey's around Cincinnati this year, being worn by the Bengals fans that still think that wearing those jersey's make you a "real fan."  WDR Comrades, on the other hand, can be spotted wearing the "Hire A General Manager" tee.

What we learned

After watching the broadcast late last night, either from all the alcohol or lack of sleep, but there were actually some positives in that train wreck of a game. As I mentioned in the pre-game write up, there were several keys to pay attention to rather than focusing on the ensueing chaos that was going to happen.

Offense

It was ugly, but it could not have been predicted to be anything but a clusterfuck. With two weeks to install a new offensive system and prepare a rookie QB as well as WR, the offense performed to the level that only could have been realistically anticipated. The good: in the first half there were practically zero mental errors; Gruden's play calling was an improvement to Bratkowski's; and the only mistakes were rookie related or execution errors that should be resolved with more time. The bad: it looked terrible when you put it all together, and the defense could not stop a pass to save its life. So with all of the choas we witnessed, there were a few glimers of hope, and I am willing to bet that we see improvement over the next few weeks with more time together. 

1. The chess match - Gruden did a decent job mixing up the play calling. He consistantly showed the ability to be maluable in his play calling and attacked the defense with different formations and routes. It was refreshing to not see any 3 downs and outs in the first half since he was able to consistantly move the ball - getting them in scoring position 2 of their 3 drives. In the second drive, after a steady dose of Benson they faced a 3rd & 2 situation. Unlike Brat's predictable play calling, the play action pass that Dalton missed was a good call. The Lions were looking for run and Dalton had an open man - he just pulled a typical rookie mistake and rushed the pass. Other important questions that were answered:

• Was the route tree more aggressive than Bratkowski's 5-10 yard hitches? Yes. They were running everything from crossing routes to having Gresham and Coffman run seam routes. This is potentially a good sign.
• Was Gruden able to create mismatches with our talented WR's and TE's to spread the ball around the field? Yes. They were able to get guys open fairly consistantly. 
• How much of a receiving threat are Gresham, Coffman, and Scaife going to be in his scheme? They were aggresive in their routes, but Dalton just checked down. On the crossing route to Green, where he seemed to run backwards across the field, Gresham was wide open running up the seam. This is a simple rookie oversight and should be corrected over time.
• Are the RB's going to be invovled in the passing game more? Yes. They were running more than just Brat's infamous hitches. 

2. The Offensive Line - Livings again exceeded our expectation that he is a mistake as the starting LG. He was consistantly manhandled by Williams, allowed his blocking assignment to tackle Benson from behind on a couple of occasions (canceling his opportunity to break into the second level), and he nulified Leonard's signature leap & struggle for a first down with a holding penalty. He is a liability, and the Bengals should replace him ASAP if they know what they are doing. However even with this deficency, the OL did a decent job of controlling the LOS. Dalton had time to throw, except for a couple occassions. Another positive was that, outside of Livings holding call, I don't think the offense had a false start or any mental mistakes in the first half.

3. Dalton -Like I wrote on Friday, it was unfair for fans to have expectations of him to showing up and performing like Ryan Mallett Thursday night. Although his stats were ugly, Dalton showed an understanding where his receivers were supposed to be and that he has the ability to read a complex NFL defense. Overall he had nice velocity and accuracy on his throws, and by the end of the night he finished 11/15 which is a good percentage for a rookie QB. He just made rookie mistakes in rushing passes and locking onto receivers. There will be a lot of that this season, but it should improve over time. 

 

Defense

The defense looked flat and the secondary looked foolish.

1. DL rotation - There were glimmers of hope with the DL even though Dunlap did not play. The run defense did a pretty good job of controlling the run and not letting Best break into the second level. Nor did the DL did not get blown off the ball routinely, this is one of the few positives Zimmer can build upon.

2. New LB corps - Rey and the others looked decent. Rey stuck people all over the field and may be able to provide an identity to this squad that has been missing since the Jim LeClair days.

3. The secondary laid a big turd - enough said. With no pressure up front and terrible covereage by Hall and others, Stafford & Hall made it look all too easy. With Mike Brown failing to provide any significant investment at the safety spot for the past several years, this is going to continue to be the achilles heel for the defense. They should trade for Taylor Mays to at least get a young body that is athletic back in the secondary.

The question for next week is: now that they have this turd sandwich of a game on tape can they learn from their mistakes and improve on it? From what we saw last night, it can only get better.

 

 

What to watch tonight

Be on the lookout for this one tonight.

Tonight's the first of several potential ass-whoopings this season. The Bengals are typically bad, but they always to seem find a way to take it to another level in the preseason. Last year's Hall of Fame game set the motto for the rest of the season: mental mistakes and no spark. With only two weeks of cramming, several former cast offs added to the team, and two rookies at the QB and #1 WR spots, this game has the potential to be the most unorganized and sloopy Bengal's games we may see in years. 

While Reedy and Hobson try to make this game smell as good as they can on their sites, here at WDR we are going to help you prep what really should be watched tonight through all of the choas.

 

Offense

1. The chess match - This is the first test to see if Gruden can compete at the NFL level and how much of an upgrade he brings to Bratkowski's shoes; it can only go up. Tonight he faces the former illegal immigrant, Gunther Cummingham, whose upbringing in war torn Munich until the age of 10 makes him a respectable adversary.

A key indicator to follow the chess match battle at home, is whether in certain game situations plays are getting blown up. For instance, last year on 3rd & 2 everyone watching the game new Brat was going to call a run. Unfortunately so did the opposing cooridinators and they probably even new which hole it was going. Therefore Brat's plays were routinely blown up at the LOS or in the backfield. 

If Gruden is creative as advertised, he needs to show he has the ability to think outside the box in these situations to take advantage of Cummingham keying on certain satistical tendencies. Just demonstarting any sense of understanding on how to use misdirection or play action will be an improvement from what was up in the box last year. Other things to watch for tonight and the coming weeks:

• Is the route tree more aggressive than Bratkowski's 5-10 yard hitches? Look for receivers running across the middle of the field and not stopping.
• Is Gruden able to create mismatches with our talented WR's and TE's to spread the ball around the field? Look for WR's getting the ball without defenders on them like white on rice.
• How much of a receiving threat are Gresham, Coffman, and Scaife going to be in his scheme? Look at where they are on the field when the ball leaves the QB's hand. Brat kept them close to the LOS most of the time. Having them running crossing routes and down seams is good indication.
• Are the RB's going to be invovled in the passing game more? RB's had only 60 receptions last year (approximately 16% of all completions). Look for RB's doing more than just hanging out in the flats or in the middle between two LB's.

2. The Offensive Line - The starting spots are basically the same on paper from last year's except that Williams is a year older, Smith is thin enough to practice in August, and we are 100% certain Livings at LG is a mistake. The three interior spots are going to face a major test in Suh. Since Gruden likes to use the running game to open up the passing routes, winning control of the LOS is critical. If we don't see nice openings or a formidable push upfront, then the chess match mentioned above is going to be very difficult to win. Most likely the Lions are going to win the scrum at the LOS with their improved DL, which will also make it very difficult for...

3. Dalton - This is a tough match up for Dalton because we are going to see what he can do under pressure. Not only pressure from this being his first NFL start, but from the improved Lions pass rush. Moving from college to the pros it typically takes a year or two to develop a QB and have them adjust to the speed of the game - Dalton has had just two weeks of intense cramming. Don't expect him to show up and perform like Ryan Mallett last night. Dalton needs to show an understanding where his receivers are supposed to be and that he can read a complex NFL defense. Luckily he comes pre-wired with good technique, vision, and sense in the pocket because there is a good chance it may be put to use tonight. Again, don't be surprised if Dalton has a slow start tonight.

 

Defense

1. DL rotation - Does the rotation that Zimmer created midway through last year's season improve is the primary question. With no major investment in a run stuffing DT or DE during the offseason, the Bengals are counting on their own players to develop and take the next step. However we won't get a good sense of the rotation on 3rd down since Dunlap is most likely out for the evening resting his knee. So tonight will primarily test 1st and 2nd down group. On running plays, watch to see if they can control the LOS or are they getting blown back repeatedly. If the later, it may be a long season.

2. New LB corps - Rey is now in his natural position, and the Bengals brought in Howard and Lawson to fill the other two spots since Rivers is injured. Now that Rey is in his natural spot, does he actually have a top 10 MLB's instincts to take him to the ball. If he does, then watch for him to do something we have not really experienced since Takeo Spikes: shooting into the caps to attack the ball carrier once he reads the running play. If he is just making tackles 5-7 yards down the field and not attacking the LOS, then he may not be the major upgrade to Jones like we hoped. If the DL can help keep blockers off of him and he is attacking, then Rey could have a big season ahead of him.

Another serious weakness has been covering the middle of the field and opposing TE's. Detroit has a great young TE in Pettigrew who will be a good test to see if the bodies that Mike Brown brought in are any improvement to what we had last year. Stafford likes to throw to Megatron and Pettigrew so if they can contain him, then it will be a positive sign.