Guest Post: OchoCinco vs. A.J. Green

Longtime comrade Wyatt penned this post debating the Bengals taking Georgia WR A.J. Green with the 4th pick in the draft.  We welcome guest posts because they are usually better written and take far less time for us to post.  If you've got something, email us at whodeyrevolution[at]gmail[dot]com. 

With the 2011 NFL Draft rapidly approaching , Don Banks from SI.com and Rob Rang and Pete Prisco from CBSSportsline.com have posted mock drafts.  All three “pundits” have the Bengals taking Georgia wide receiver AJ Green with the fourth overall selection.  If you’re like me, and you’ve seen the “great success” the Bengals have had drafting skill player after skill player in the first round, then you’re probably groaning right now and wishing they’d take a lineman (on either side of the ball).  In spite of some first-round guys having character issues (Cam Newton springs immediately to mind), there don’t appear to be any overweight linemen with motivational issues, which would be all the more reason to draft a lineman in the first round, right?

Well, I’m going to play devil’s advocate and not only say that I think AJ Green would be a great draft choice for the Bengals, but also use his statistics (compared with Chad Johnson’s) to show you why.  There is one caveat (and a few points) before I jump into all the boring numbers – this is all assuming Carson decides to remain a Bengal at some point between now and the draft, because I think we all know that if he doesn’t, Mikey’s going to select Cam Newton and we’re going to be screwed, JaMarcus Russell/Akili Smith –style.  Also, for a little background, when I first read Banks’ mock draft, I was dead-set against the idea of drafting a wide receiver in the first round, but his (admittedly snarky) little comment/reasoning made me actually stop and think about it.

“I can't wait to see what Chad Ochocinco (or Johnson?) will tweet once the Bengals use their first-round pick to select a new No. 1 receiver. I would score that one checkmate, Marvin Lewis, in the coming showdown between Cincy's head coach and the veteran pass-catcher with whom he has long since grown weary.”

Assuming Johnson returns this season (and there’s really no reason to believe he won’t – Mike is too stubborn to trade him and I highly doubt they’d cut him and get absolutely nothing for him), that puts the Bengals in an ideal position to groom Green, since the standard logic states that most wide receivers don’t produce in their first year in the pros (though if there is a receiver in this class with the potential to be the exception to that rule, Green seems to be that guy).

Secondly, drafting a high-talent, low maintenance wide receiver could be seen as another olive branch (along with the long-overdue firing of Bob Bratkowski) to a franchise quarterback who currently doesn’t want to be a part of the franchise.   After forcing Carson to suffer through three years of Chad’s discontent (from after the 2006 season until just before the 2009 season), and then adding TO to the mix in 2010, finally drafting a big-talent wide receiver without the diva attitude could, along with the first-round pass-catching tight end from last year, be enough to convince Carson to give the Bengals another chance. Whether you’re of the mind that Carson is washed up or not, he’s certainly got a better track record than any of the quarterbacks in this draft, as well as the options that are out there that the Bengals would actually pursue.  Sorry, but they’re not going after Kevin Kolb, the only viable starting option who may or may not be on the trading block.

Third, in spite of being a fan of Johnson, and acknowledging that he is the franchise’s most prolific receiver, he has a history of not producing in the “big” games.  I originally made this point here on WDR almost a year ago and it was met with pretty heavy resistance.  I started researching it, but put the whole thing aside due to real world happenings.  Now, based on the aforementioned mock drafts, I was interested enough to resume my research.  In order to attempt to prove my hypothesis, I went back and looked at 85’s statistics from 2002 (his first year as a full-time starter) through 2010.  I compared his overall stats first against those against teams that went to the playoffs in each particular season and then against the other three AFC North teams.  I added in the AFC North teams because most years, that’s as close as the Bengals get to important games.  Also, just for fun, I threw in Johnson’s performances in the final three games of the 2006 regular season, when the Bengals needed to win a single game to make the playoffs for the second season in a row. (I also included 2008 when Palmer missed 12 games because TO proved in 2009 that it’s possible to have a good season with Ryan Fitzpatrick as your quarterback, and Johnson’s numbers weren’t much different before and after Palmer got hurt.)  I’ll point out some interesting conclusions I realized after the statistics.  I broke it down into a season-by-season format in order to make it more palatable.  I’ll also include some conclusions I’ve drawn (however erroneously) after each year.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2002	All	16	69	1166	16.9	72.9	5
	Playoff Teams	8	35	562	16.1	70.3	2
	% of All/Change	50.0%	50.7%	48.2%	-5.0%	-3.6%	40.0%
	AFC North	6	33	562	17.0	93.7	4
	% of All/Change	37.5%	47.8%	48.2%	0.8%	28.5%	80.0%

1.       Chad performed slightly below his average against playoff teams and pretty well above average against AFC North teams, somewhat strange as both the Browns and Steelers made the playoffs in 2002.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2003	All	16	90	1355	15.1	84.7	10
	Playoff Teams	6	30	513	17.1	85.5	3
	% of All/Change	37.5%	33.3%	37.9%	13.6%	1.0%	30.0%
	AFC North	6	24	435	18.1	72.5	4
	% of All/Change	37.5%	26.7%	32.1%	20.4%	-14.4%	40.0%

1.       Chad performed slightly above average against playoff-bound teams (other than receptions per game and touchdowns) and while his receptions and YPG were down against AFC North teams, he performed well otherwise.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2004	All	16	95	1274	13.4	79.6	9
	Playoff Teams	5	24	380	15.8	76.0	3
	% of All/Change	31.3%	25.3%	29.8%	18.1%	-4.6%	33.3%
	AFC North	6	40	548	13.7	91.3	4
	% of All/Change	37.5%	42.1%	43.0%	2.2%	14.7%	44.4%

1.       In Carson’s first year as full-time starter (starting 13 games), Chad performed comparably to 2002-2003, with comparable numbers against playoff teams and AFC North teams as to the rest of the league.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2005	All	17	101	1491	14.8	87.7	9
	Playoff Teams	6	29	525	18.1	87.5	4
	% of All/Change	35.3%	28.7%	35.2%	22.6%	-0.2%	44.4%
	AFC North	7	34	499	14.7	71.3	1
	% of All/Change	41.2%	33.7%	33.5%	-0.6%	-18.7%	11.1%

1.       In Carson and Chad’s first playoff season, Chad’s receptions against playoff teams and AFC North teams both were comparatively lower than the rest of his games; however, his yards per catch were significantly higher against playoff teams and his touchdowns were also favorable.

2.       He performed significantly worse against AFC North teams, a trend that would continue right up through 2010.

3.       This included his performance in the Wild Card game against Pittsburgh, turning in a 4-catch, 59-yard, 0-touchdown performance.  Granted, Palmer went out on the first offensive play of the game, but there was also the well-publicized locker room meltdown at halftime.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2006	All	16	87	1369	15.7	85.6	7
	Playoff Teams	7	43	721	16.8	103.0	5
	% of All/Change	43.8%	49.4%	52.7%	6.6%	20.4%	71.4%
	AFC North	6	30	387	12.9	64.5	1
	% of All/Change	37.5%	34.5%	28.3%	-18.0%	-24.6%	14.3%
	Final 3 Games	3	10	53	5.3	17.7	0
	% of All/Change	18.8%	11.5%	3.9%	-66.3%	-79.4%	0.0%

1.       For the second consecutive year, Chad performed very favorably against playoff-bound teams in spite of having less receptions per game.

2.       However, he again performed poorly against AFC North teams, with a lower percentage of receptions and yards in those games, as well as significantly lower yards per catch and yards per game.

3.       Most telling, however, are the final three games of the 2006 season, when the Bengals needed Chad to come up big in order to secure a playoff berth.  Instead, he came up small, with abysmal numbers, including zero touchdowns and less than 20 yards per game, average.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2007	All	16	93	1440	15.5	90.0	8
	Playoff Teams	4	23	328	14.3	82.0	0
	% of All/Change	25.0%	24.7%	22.8%	-7.9%	-8.9%	0.0%
	AFC North	6	35	558	15.9	93.0	3
	% of All/Change	37.5%	37.6%	38.8%	3.0%	3.3%	37.5%

1.       Chad performed comparably against playoff teams and non-playoff teams, although all 8 of his touchdowns came against non-playoff teams.

2.       He actually performed slightly better against NFC North teams than not, although a 51-45 shootout loss to Cleveland in week 2 in which he had 11 receptions for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns certainly helped that average.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2008	All	13	53	540	10.2	41.5	4
	Playoff Teams	7	29	298	10.3	42.6	1
	% of All/Change	53.8%	54.7%	55.2%	0.9%	2.5%	25.0%
	AFC North	4	16	147	9.2	36.8	2
	% of All/Change	30.8%	30.2%	27.2%	-9.8%	-11.5%	50.0%

1.       Again, Chad performed comparably against playoff teams and non-playoff teams, although again he had no touchdowns  against playoff teams, in spite of 3 of Carson’s 4 games before getting hurt were against playoff teams.

2.       Chad performed slightly worse against AFC North teams than other teams, and one of his receiving touchdowns came against the Browns, the only other non-playoff team (besides the Bengals) in the AFC North.

3.       I will note that in 9 of Chad’s 13 games, he had Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback, which, prior to Palmer’s second injury, was definitely a step down.

4.       Also noteworthy is the fact that Chad played a majority of the season with a shoulder separation sustained in preseason that, due to the Bengals’ poor medical staff, probably didn’t heal properly.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2009	All	17	74	1075	14.5	63.2	9
	Playoff Teams	7	24	385	16.0	55.0	3
	% of All/Change	41.2%	32.4%	35.8%	10.4%	-13.0%	33.3%
	AFC North	6	25	305	12.2	50.8	2
	% of All/Change	35.3%	33.8%	28.4%	-16.0%	-19.6%	22.2%

1.       Chad performed worse against playoff teams than against non-playoff teams, and although his yards per catch were better against playoff teams, he was held to less catches per game.

2.       Chad performed even worse against AFC North teams, probably largely due to be the only receiving threat on the team which allowed for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland’s generally sub-par defensive backfields to focus more on Chad than they generally could.

3.       Also of note was Chad’s stat line in the playoff game against the Jets: 2 catches, 28 yards, 0 touchdowns.

Season	Versus	Games	Rec	Yds	Avg YPC	Avg YPG	TDs
2010	All	14	67	831	12.4	59.4	4
	Playoff Teams	8	49	620	12.7	77.5	3
	% of All/Change	57.1%	73.1%	74.6%	2.0%	30.6%	75.0%
	AFC North	5	16	225	14.1	45.0	0
	% of All/Change	35.7%	23.9%	27.1%	13.4%	-24.2%	0.0%

1.       Chad actually performed significantly better against playoff teams than against non-playoff teams, likely due to the fact that TO drew more attention than any other receiver on the Bengals had since TJ left after the 2008 season.

2.       In a non-surprising trend (for me at least, after analyzing this data), Chad continued to underperform against division rivals, including another year without a touchdown against AFC North opponents.

So, with all of that data out of the way, here are a few facts that aren’t readily apparent by looking at raw data:

1.       Chad has only had 5 100-plus yard receiving games against AFC North opponents that weren’t against the Browns, with only two of those coming against the Steelers. 

2.       Chad has had zero 100-plus yard receiving games against the Steelers since Carson Palmer became the starting quarterback.

3.       Chad hasn’t had a 100-plus receiving yards game against an AFC North opponent since 2007, against the Browns.

4.       In the Bengals’ two playoff seasons, 2005 and 2009, Chad had one and zero 100-plus yard receiving games, respectively.  He had two of them (against NE and ATL) in the 4-12 2010 campaign.

Why WILL the Bengals draft AJ Green?  Mike Brown likes to draft people who will score points (credit due to whichever WDR commenter made that point, which is very true), as opposed to drafting less glamorous positions on the lines.  AJ Green isn’t necessarily a classic Mike Brown redeeming project, although he was suspended for four games for selling his Independence Bowl jersey, so he does have that hanging over his head and it’s probably good enough for Mikey Boy.  He’s also drawing comparisons to Randy Moss, Larry Fitzgerald, and Calvin Johnson, which is probably about as close to scouting as Mike has done.  Based on the fact that Mike drafted David Pollack in round one in 2005 and Odell Thurman in round two, both of them linebackers from Georgia, I’d say it’s probably a safe bet that the Bengals do focus their limited scouting resources on the SEC. (With the logic likely being that they win every national championship so that’s where the best players are.)

So why SHOULD the Bengals draft AJ Green?  Well, first off, Green had his best game this past season (9 catches, 162 yards, 2 touchdowns) against eventual national champion Auburn, Georgia’s only game against an AP-ranked team in 2010 that Green was eligible for.  He also averaged almost 2.5 yards per catch better against conference foes than against non-conference foes, along with scoring 5 touchdowns against conference foes compared to four against non-conference foes.  And my final reason?

HE’S NOT CAM NEWTON!

Believe me, though, I won’t be surprised if they end up taking Newton about ten picks earlier than he should go, or going after one of the top two cornerbacks (LSU’s Patrick Peterson or Nebraska’s Prince Amukamara) in an attempt to try to leverage JJoe or Leon into sticking around at a reduced rate.  This doesn’t make sense, of course, but it’s the Mike Brown-run Bengals we’re talking about.  And if they do take a cornerback, it’ll likely be Amukamara, who showed last year that he’s not as elite without a dominant defensive line, something the Bengals don’t have.

Comments

[WhoDeyFans]

Wyatt, all with one typo that I found (I have to pick on the guy who picks on everyone else right?)

"He actually performed slightly better against NFC North teams than not, although a 51-45 shootout loss to Cleveland in week 2 in which he had 11 receptions for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns certainly helped that average."

That being said, I have a hard time putting much faith in the numbers against playoff teams. Unless I am really misreading your info, i would want to see looks or pass attempts to Chad to judge whether it was him disappearing in the game or the rest of the team (loss to the Jets in the Meadowlands where Carson had 0 yds. in first half). I know you have a ton of free time, so go ahead and get that info for me.

Good read though. I still have a soft spot for Chad. Somehow he made the Bengals relevant even when they weren't.

[Hofbraunow]

"Somehow he made the Bengals relevant even when they weren't."

That's a good way of describing Chad with the Bengals...and he comes back, talking that talk,
acting like he plays on the best team in the world...it's kinda cool if you can get past being annoyed by it : )

I'll go ahead and say it though...for better or worse, I think he is maturing

[Hofbraunow]

Cam Newton's job, in his own words to the press, is to be 'an icon'...I think I know what he was trying to say, what with endorsements and all...but still, he better watch out for my mouse pointer

[cheap Jordans]

you can find what you want to in here,make your life full of color ,it's a perfect website.

[MtngoatGoodwin]

We're going to get Mallet, aren't we? :(

[comrade guttersnake]

Okay, so in the light of recent news, I feel pretty safe stating for the record that we will trade Carson. What we get is going to set the tempo for the draft. I know there are different feelings about this, but I'll make the bold prediction that we get some money and a 2nd or 3rd round pick for Palmer.

You know MFB someone somewhere deep in the dregs of Paul Brown Stadium is counting the money saved off Palmers contract once they off-load him. Yes, the CBA still looms, but you've got to think that keeping JJ and Benson looks a little better now... granted that may just be wishful thinking, but screw it; we're talking about QBs and WRs, yes?

The big question now is will the Bengals put all their eggs in one basket, and I say they won't. That's why they won't draft Cam Newton. If he tanks, everything else means zip, zilch, nada. Also, the amount of float-head QBs that all have starter potential is bigger this year than any in recent memory. In other words, drafting Cam Newton at no. 4 means they have to be considering him as a starter, but knowing the very real chance he could be a bust, they have to find a back up as well, likely in free agency. My line of thought is that if you have to find a QB in free agency regardless, and likely whomever this QB is will only be signed to reasonable one or two year contact anyway - it just seems ultra logical to sign that same veteran QB (AS A STARTER) and then draft your rookie in round 2... which naturally allows you to get AJ Green.

I agree with Wyatt, Green, Johnson, Shipley, and Gresham along with Jerome and Simpson make a sick WR corps, giving any QB, rookie or veteran, all the tools he would need. ...I know we said that last year too... But, yes: I think Ryan Mallet in Round 2 is very very likely as much as I would like to see that FS Moore from UCLA get picked up...

Hey! Maybe that's how the pick for we get for Carson will get used!

Some of you might be thinking, that's just too stupidly logical. My counter argument is that if my happy-ass can think it in Afghanistan using only internet research, then I'm right on par with the Brown family scouting department.

Lastly, @ Wyatt - three days ago, I would have agreed that Kolb was a pipe dream manufactured in my own twisted dream world, which, frankly, is still included in most of this post; but, you've got to concede the Lewis and Gruden (and maybe Mikey) must be at least peeking at names like Kolb, Leinhart, McNabb, Gradowski, Grossman, Quinn, Smith, Collins, Pennington, Dixon... need I go on?

[comrade guttersnake]

correction: I meant Caldwell and Simpson.

[blesterov]

They are way better off trading down then staying at #4.

If they trade down, they could end up with at least three picks in the first two rounds. With those picks they could go after three of their five biggest holes: OG, DL, SLB, WR and Safety. IF they can fill the OG and DT in the first two rounds that would be ideal so we have dominate lines on both sides of the ball again: that is what provides the foundation to win championships.

If they trade Palmer away, which it is looking more like a possibility every day, they could have 4 picks in the first two rounds to fill those holes (only if the CBA is resolved by then of course).

I am not including QB as a hole b/c they can fill that easily in FA (McNabb) or trade for Kolb after the draft. I think Kolb would be a good fit here.

[ickey's headband]

no way they go wide receiver in the first round! oh wait i just forgot i dont care anymore. so yeah, take a wr in the first round, or dont.

[JM]

Trading up, trading down. It doesn't matter.

Mike Brown is going to fuck it up anyway.

Trade Carson keep Carson. It doesn't matter.

Mike Brown is going to fuck it up anyway.

Sign Benson trade Benson. Doesn't matter.

Mike Brown is going to fuck it up anyway.

Draft Newton, draft Gabbert. Doesn't matter.

Mike Brown is going to fuck it up anyway.

What's the over/under on attendance next year. I'm saying 40k average tops.

[Rich]

I'm with Ickey's headband.
You can't lose on a long snapper in the first round, can you?
I'd do either that or maybe trade the first round pick for a new linebacker coach.

[West TX Bengal Fan]

@ JM

You hit the bottom line, God awful, absolute truth for this franchise. Bob Marley might have had a hit @ PBS singing a version called, "No Mikey, No Cry!"

[HappySameYearFromYourCincinnatiGroundhogs]

@ JM: One hopes the town smartens up but given the attendance being so high lately one has to wonder!
The stadium should be so f--king empty you can hear crickets chirp.
But every Sunday the koolaid konsumers are there...

[Bengal in Browns Territory]

I think we should take Fairley at #4, should he get to us. If not, I agree with Green. But should we get Green and Carson follows through with his rebellion threats, I'll remind you of Mr Sidney Rice of the Vikings. His first few years, he didn't do much and was thought to be a bust...his QB was Tavarus Jackson. Then, a proven QB comes in (forget personal feelings about Favre being great, over-rated, etc...he was a proven veteran) and Rice, for at least one year, showed what he can do with a good QB. If we are in a similar situation, just remember this before adding Green to the owner's crap list.
However, if we draft Newton, put it on the owner's crap list before the commissioner even finishes his last name at the podium.

[Hofbraunow]

West TX Bengal Fan wrote:

"@ JM

You hit the bottom line, God awful, absolute truth for this franchise. Bob Marley might have had a hit @ PBS singing a version called, "No Mikey, No Cry!" "

And the 'endtro' refrain, instead of "everything's gon' be alright',

will be (to quote JM), "Mike Brown's going to fuck it up anyway"

( you might say 'wrong band',
but "I've goht blistahs on me fingahs!" )

[Hofbraunow]

"When you get to the bottom you go back to the draft....(lyrics, lyrics, blah blah blah)...

...you may be an owner but you ain't no GM

Helter Mike Brown

He should take The Family and move to Spahn Ranch

[Cheap Coach Purses]

think we should take Fairley at #4, should he get to us. If not, I agree with Green. But should we get Green and Carson follows through with his rebellion threats, I'll remind you of Mr Sidney Rice of the Vikings. His first few years, he didn't do much and was thought to be a bust...his QB was Tavarus Jackson. Then, a proven QB comes in (forget personal feelings about Favre being great, over-rated, etc...he was a proven veteran) and Rice, for at least one year, showed what he can do with a good QB. If we are in a similar situation, just remember this before adding Green to the owner's crap list.
However, if we draft Newton, put it on the owner's crap list before the commissioner even finishes his last name at the podium.

[Blue Laser Pointers]

@Hofbraunow: love your words. " He should take The Family and move to Spahn Ranch"

[Pink Laser Pointer]

Nice green on his short.

[mbt sale]

Outdoor dining is such an obvious plus for downtown.

[Great Wall Tour]

EO EO EO EO.....BECAUSE OF YOU, I WILL TRUST EVEYRONE AROUND ME....

[Green Laser Pointer]

His QB was Tavarus Jackson. Then, a proven QB comes in (forget personal feelings about Favre being great, over-rated, etc...he was a proven veteran) and Rice, for at least one year, showed what he can do with a good QB. If we are in a similar situation, just remember this before adding Green to the owner's crap list.
However, if we draft Newton, put it on the owner's crap list before the commissioner even finishes his last name at the podium.

[Dissertation ideas]

His QB was Tavarus Jackson. Then, a proven QB comes in (forget personal feelings about Favre being great, over-rated, etc...he was a proven veteran) and Rice,