While We're Talking TJ and Our Wide Receivers...

In my recent reading I discovered that those who more heavily favor data driven and evidence based analysis really dislike the odds of TO producing much as a receiver going forward.  Here they are:

Football Outsiders - article 1

Football Outsiders - article 2

James Walker versus KC Joyner

In particular, they note his declining statistics, that only Jerry Rice really produced at his age, and that Dallas had to use gimmicks to get TO open as he could no longer get separation in more recent years.

Hmmm...all I can say is that if you believe your eyes he still looks like he has #1 type skills as of this preseason.  James Walker, bless him, defends the move to the bitter end using pretty reasonable arguments.

Regardless, I sure wish we had worked with TJ while he was still under contract.  If anyone can provide an informed history as to what happened with TJ and why we didn't work to extend him while he was under contract as we did with Chad I would love to see that in the comments.  I'm gonna make it a research project myself.

Comments

[TheCarlPickensClause]

Dude...you need to let the whole TJ thing go. Seriously. It's time. He's not coming back. There's been two chances for him to come back over the last two years--both he and the club decided against it one time a piece. He's gone. The Bengals made the playoffs already since he left and will probably do so again this year without him. T.O. is a MORE than adequate replacement and Shipley and Gresham will also provide a lot of productivity.
I mean, seriously, what's the big fascination here? Do you think thy would have won the Super Bowl last year with him? I don't. You've harped on this too often. Let it go.

[blesterov]

Regarding TO, this is a good debate and it is fair to question what we are going to get out of him this season.

I expect better numbers than what he had in Buffalo last year, but I don't expect him to revert to his 2008 numbers. I did draft him on my fantasy team, and I plan to start him most of the season, but I don't think he is going to be as dominate as he once was. I think KC was overstating the obvious. TO was being graded going against the #1 CB probably facing double coverage with a crappy QB pitching to him. In Cincy, he is going against the #2 CB (typically a big drop in talent) and will have single coverage since the secondary will be rolling to Chad. He also has a hell of a lot better pitcher in Palmer to play catch with. Brat, as dumb as he is, still should be able to take advantage of TO against weaker CB's.

His age is a concern to me, which is why I hoped they would use him as the 3rd WR for a couple of reasons: 1) This would help preserve his legs down the playoff stretch; 2) it would create a big mismatch in the X's and O's with TO in the slot; 3) it would give him good opportunities to get open from the passing tree; and 4) it would give Palmer a large target with pretty dependable hands that he feels comfortable targeting in the middle. Unfortunately, Bryant feel apart and now we are depending on TO as #2 WR (Bryant may have been our #3 even if he did not break down).

Regardless TO is still an upgrade to TJ. The same case can be made against TJ. I think he is over the hill and his career is on its way out the door. His body finally began to show its age and broke down last year which caused his performance to suffer. So even if he were in Cincy last year, most likely his production would have dropped. In Baltimore, I will be surprised if he is anything higher than the #3 or #4. He is also a huge douche, which is evident by him deciding to sign with Baltimore. First Ginger, now TJ. Baltimore, the place where douchey Bengals go to die (excluding Willie of course).

[Wyatt]

As has been mentioned on here, Mikey Boy could've given TJ the entire Bengals organization and $25 million a year and TJ would've left. Regardless of whether or not you believe he was a cancer (personally, I don't, but I do believe he had a negative effect on Chad specifically, considering the worst period Chad had as a Bengal was during the times when TJ was the only one talking to him), he buried the Bengals and their fans on his way out of town in a complete show of disregard for the people who'd supported him throughout his career, proof that he had no intentions of ever returning to the Queen City.

[Mockenrue]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/football/nfl/09/06/2010.predictions.2/index.html

All's well! Jerome Bettis says the Bengals win the North and Marvin is Coach of the Year. Happy days abound.

[HappyNat]

Who cares if Dallas had to use gimmicks, we have the king of gimmicks in Brat. I can only imagine what inventive ground breaking plays our mad scientist is coming up with as we type.

Running off tackle counts as a gimmick, right?

[blesterov]

Kirwin picked the Bengals over the Packers in the Super Bowl.

http://www.nfl.com/kickoff/story/09000d5d81a35e90/article/packers-unanimously-picked-to-reach-super-bowl-xlv?module=HP_spotlight

I love the Bucky Brooks pick of the Steelers as the division champion. There is no way that is happening this season regardless of the rapist's situation. The only way that happens is if the injury bug hits Cincy & Baltimore. Another example of how the media just doesn't understand the game that they report on. In all of my fantasy football research, I have only heard one analyst mention the strength of the OL when talking about the QB, WR & RB positions.

I think the AFC North may play out like this:
1. Cincy
2. Baltimore (they could be a very close second)
3. Cleveland
4. Pittsburgh (most likely they tie w/ Cleveland or are one game behind)

[Rich]

This picture frightens me:
http://news.cincinnati.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Site=AB&Date=20100908&Category=SPT02&ArtNo=9080807&Ref=PH&Params=Itemnr=5

[Hofbraunow]

Just read this on Yahoo regarding the possible lockout next year:

"Why do some owners think the system is broken?

Revenue sharing fails to address the reality that some teams (such as the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals) have favorable stadium deals that call for little or no expenditures from the organization while other owners, such as Jones, Denver’s Pat Bowlen or the Green Bay Packers, took out massive loans for new or renovated stadiums. Thus, someone such as the Panthers’ Richardson might be forced to write an eight-figure check that subsidizes a peer such as the Bengals’ Mike Brown(notes), who is actually making a far greater profit because of his relatively low overhead. Further, there are owners who intentionally keep revenues low to maintain their spot in the NFL’s lower 17 and ensure that they’ll receive money under the current system. All of this is mystifying to the players, who believe the owners who are most averse to revenue sharing greet a potential work stoppage as an opportunity for prevailing in an internal struggle."

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ms-laborquestions090810