You Say It Best When You Say Nothing At All

Assuming the inevitable, what exactly does it mean that the status quo will return on offense next season?

Let's take a gander at some stats from the last two years.  In 2008, the Bengals were 32nd in the NFL on offense (based upon official NFL statistics.  Football Outsiders had them at 28th.  Anecdotally, this seems fair.  No Carson Palmer meant lots of Ryan Fitzpatrick.  Lots of Crazy Legs is good for comedy but bad for offensive production.  The offense was painful to watch.  No spark, no creativity, nothing.  Some (everyone within the organization) would place 100% of the blame at Palmer's elbow.  I don't feel like that's an accurate portrayal of how it went down, however.  The offense was terrible the first two games of 2008 (against good defenses) mustering 3 and 7 points on offense, against the Ravens and Titans.  An overtime defeat to the Giants and a loss in Dallas were decent games offensively, but certainly they didn't look like world beaters even with Carson.

This year, all excuses were gone.  Carson was back and claimed to be 100% healthy.  Housh was gone, but was replaced with Coles.  The running game would be better.  The offensive line greatly outperformed expectations.  So the old Bengals offense was back, right?  Maybe not the old Bengals, but at least a version of the Bengals offense that didn't suck.  Well, we got a mediocre offense back.  The unit ranked 24th by official NFL stats, 19th by Football Outsiders.  Is that terrible?  No, it was good enough to win 10 games.  Considering that the organization feels Carson is a top-flight quarterback?  It's terrible.

The most disturbing part of this all is the decline of Carson Palmer.  Football Outsiders rates him as the 15th best quarterback by DYAR (total value) and 19th best quarterback by DVOA (per play value) for 2009.  Is that acceptable?  Sure, if your name is Trent Edwards.  Can you win games with a quarterback playing at that level?  Obviously.  Can you win a championship?  In 2010, I'm not sure that you can.

To me, bringing back everyone, especially the offensive coordinator, tells me that the Bengals feel all of this is OK.  It's fine that the top paid quarterback in the league is playing like a mid-level starter.  It's fine that the offense will continue to produce 17 points a game.  It's fine if you don't strive for great, merely for good.

I mean, look at some of Carson's games.  The first Cleveland game (23-44/230 yds/2 TD/1 INT/73.1 rat).  The win in Pittsburgh (18-30/178/0/0/76.8).  The loss in Minnesota (15-25/94/1/0/81.1).  The record setting day in the Meadowlands (1-11/0/0/1/1.7).  Hell, just look at the stats from his last 8 regular season games combined.  During that stretch, Carson was 122 for 206 (59.2%) for 1,262 yards (157.75 a game) with 7 TDs and 6 INTs, for a QB rating of 76.15.  This is the highest paid quarterback in the league!

Also, let us not forget that the Bengals offense is trending further and further back to the 1970s as the game evolves into more and more of a passers league.  Of the 8 teams remaining in the playoffs, the Saints, Colts, Chargers, and Cardinals are all either pass heavy or much more effective passing than running.  The Vikings, despite Adrian Peterson, threw it a lot better than they ran it this year.  The Cowboys were effective both running and passing.  Only the Ravens and Jets are run first teams, and both are expected to fall this weekend.

Honestly, given this, there seems to be two options.  Cut bait with the quarterback (no) or find someone else to coordinate the offense (yes).  Naysayers will ask how this helps the offense get better.  Wouldn't changing the system make the offense even worse?  For the very short term, possibly.  For the long term, it couldn't possibly be a detriment, provided of course that the new playcaller be someone who is remotely competent.

The Bengals have a quarterback being paid elite-quarterback money playing at an average level.  The question is not, "Is there a problem?" but rather, "How can we solve this problem?"

Comments

[BengalsDouche]

Well it definitely appears as if Bratkowski is going to be here again next year. Marvin has already said there will be no "sweeping staff changes" in the offseason. So let's all be prepared for another season of run a lot and pass when we have to and go 3 and out. I am swearing by it now. If Bratkowski is back next year, I will not go to one single game.

[Nolan]

You should use this site for a real revolution. Hit Mikey boy where it hurts, the wallet. A few people posted on The Enquirer that they demanded their money back for the purchased AFC championship game and are renouncing their season tickets. More people need to do this and state the unbelievable prospect of Bratkowski being retained as OC as the reason.

[BengalsFaninPatsLand]

The playcalling differences between Brat and Schottenheimer were startling. Schott took a rookie QB and put him in places to succeed. Brat took a veteran skilled QB and put him in places to fail. Did you ever see the Bengals run ONE Play like that bootleg to Keller? The Jets realized that Keller was the key: You can't have an INT prone Sanchize throwing to the receivers covered by Hall and JJ, but with Zim wisely stacking against the run, the LB weren't there to cover Keller and any secondary in the league would have a tough time bringing him down. I bet Schott just got himself a head coaching gig on the basis of that one game. (which at least increases the chances that Zim sticks around).

As for the Bengals in 2009, this still was a team that fits in with the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North.. not a ton of talent, not a team that scares you on paper, but a defense that keeps you in games and an offense that limited mistakes for the most part. They won 10 of 15 games (week 17 was not contested) and lost 3 games in heartbreaking/or fluky fashion, including one on the road vs. a super bowl contender. Two of those losses were direct results of end of game mistakes/flukes - DEN and OAK.

They did all of this with completely unimaginative play calling and a defense that was put together with spare parts. They had injuries, but for once showed a remarkable amount of depth (at DL, OL, LB, S, RB, and even WR.. Cosby is not a bad 5th WR). Next year's schedule will be tough, but the AFC doesn't scare me. I wish the Pats were coming to Cincy, but they are on the decline and can be beat with smash mouth football (always have been). If Schott leaves, the Jets could be in disarray and the only team that scares me in the NFC south are the Saints. With a CLE sweep, a BAL and PIT split, and wins over BUF, MIA, TB, and CAR, you need 2 wins out of @BAL, @PIT, @NE, NO, SD, @NYJ, @ATL, and @IND (let's hope it's week 17) to get to 10 wins. I can see it... dimly, but I can see it.

[FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal]

Mike Brown doesn't recognize there's a problem as long as 45 guys in Bengals helmets dress and the stands are full. End. Of. Story.

[colin]

I agree that it's hard to evaluate last year. I can say this, though: Fitzpatrick looked a shit ton more comfortable in the Buffalo offense this year than he did in our offense last year. He is by no means good, but any OC worth his salt should be able to adjust to the strengths of his players and, more importantly, downplay their weaknesses. Last year after Carson went down Brat showed a complete inability to think creatively when using Fitzpatrick, and at the time I didn't care as much because there was no hope. It turns out the misuse of Fitzpatrick was just symptomatic of Brat's general inability to think creatively. This year, I wasn't upset so much by the pass to run ratio as I was with the predictability of the playcalling and Brat's absolute unwillingness to pass creatively. I'm not talking about numbers here, but the diversity of play-calling--very few bootlegs, I didn't see one play-action fake against the Jets in the last game in which Ced ran for 170 yds., and there were virtually no quick screens to our WR's or Bernard Scott, who was massively underutilized this year. Instead, we got 5-7 step drops, decent but not good protection, and receivers running predictable routes which were always covered because our tight ends never made anyone think twice. I've rambled on here for too long but the point, I think, is clear: Brat fucking sucks, and it's not just because he called substantially more running plays than passing plays. Maybe Whodey revolution could focus its next mayhem task on expressing outrage at his continued employment.

[JoseOle]

I'm as negative as the next guy, but what should Palmer do in that Jets game? Ocho was not getting open, Caldwell was hurt and shouldn't have been out there, Coles jacked his thumb up in the 1st qtr, there is not a TE on this team that could catch. Has anyone asked why Simpson or Purify weren't active instead of 8 defensive backs? Why where there only 4 wr's, if one goes down how can you run a 4 wr set? Marvin mismanaged this game from the beginning with the active roster, then pissed his challenges away. This team needs changes and we will see what they do. They drafted really well this year, and hopefully do it again with 2 or 3 new weapons for Carson, then more depth on the defense. I'm optimistic about this but pragmatic as well. The last time the bengals had this schedule rotation they went to the playoff then got killed by the new schedule with tougher teams. We will see what happens.

[FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal]

@JoseOle: Well part of the problem was Carson throwing balls off target. But as other posters pointed out, the plays they called were vanilla as hell. No rollouts, no misdirections, no audibles to pass plays, no screens, no throwing to B Scott. Seriously, every single audible Carson Palmer made was to a run (including the TD run that was supposed to be a flea-flicker... most of the other audibles got stuffed)

Bratkowski is not a good OC. This has been obvious to everyone in the tee-vee audience for four years! It also explains why the Bengals SUCK at scoring in the third quarter, because the guy doesn't know how to adjust.

But I do think Carson Palmer now qualifies as seriously overpaid, after several years of not being worthy of mention with the Mannings and Rivers and Bradys.

[BengalsFaninPatsLand]

Every great player ends up overpaid. Once Brady signs his next deal (he's up for renewal after this year) he'll qualify too by 2013. Not saying that Carson is a great player. He might have turned into one, but ever since 2005, it just wasn't to be.

However, bringing in a rookie QB at this point is not the answer. Signing a Jason Campbell or a Kevin Kolb (or mcnabb??) would be interesting, but that money needs to go towards retaining hall and JJ. With Zim re-signing (whew!) and Ced back for one more year, and hopefully A Smith maturing into a decent RT, and Kelly and Coffman at TE. Outside of an offensive coordinator with some creativity (calling Mike Martz! he hates the Tight end anyway!) What's missing is an explosive wideout who doesn't drop half the balls coming his way.

So ladies and gentlemen, let me start the "TRADE FOR BRANDON MARSHALL" campaign now. There aren't huge holes to fill through the draft, so send a 1 and a 4 (we don't do all that well on first rounders and they are expensive, even for playoff team) and get the malcontent. Put him along side Chad where he can learn how to be a loudmouth without being disruptive, and get a D Lineman in the 2nd round and a safety in the 3rd. (those two positions are tough to project in the draft anyway).

[WhoDeyFans]

Zimmers back. 3 year deal.

[Gfox]

Zimmer has reportedly stated that he is indeed coming back in a text to someone at bengals.com.

[GregC78&69]

Just heard Zimmer is coming back as well, on WLW 2 minutes ago.

WOOHOO!

¡Viva La Revolucion!

[SM]

There are PLENTY of things to bitch about with this team, but honestly, Zimmer coming back is just great news. Not only is he our best coach probably since Sam Wyche, he's a great motivator and just a helluva guy. On this one, I have to give you props Mike Brown.

Now, if you do the right thing and fire your puppet Bob Bratkowski, you'll really be on the right track. Honestly, if Zim is a step in the right direction, Brat is two steps back. That's why this team never goes anywhere.

Other moves I would love to see them make:

1. lock up Hall and J-Jo for 4+ years now (before they get too pricey)
2. extend Ced for 3-4 years (he's got one year left as is)
3. get a goddamn indoor practice field
4. trade Geathers (he's got some value, just not for the Bengals)
5. CUT Shayne Graham, Dan Coates and Tom Nelson
6. Draft best WR available or get on via free agency (Brandon Marshall/Josh Cribbs)
7. Draft best TE and DE available--trade up or down if needed

[SM]

One more thing on the lack of a practice bubble: that's just fucking absurd. A practice bubble is in the neighborhood of $2M - $6M, depending on type/design (according to figures from around the league). Yeah, that's a lot of money, but not for a team that Forbes values at over $1 BILLION!!! That's like buying a Ferrari and saying, "You know what, I'm gonna save $200 a month by not parking it in a garage." That's why no free agents want to come here.

[Joe]

I can honestly say this is exactly what I expected all season from the Browngals. They did just enough to keep the fans interested while flaming out towards the end of the season. I for one did not buy into it. I have seen this garbage before, and have truly revolted against this horses#!t!. I may have watched a total of two quarters this entire season with those being against the Browns because my girlfriend is a Cleveland fan, I know I laugh every time too. Seriously though, if you look at the two lousy winning seasons over the last 20 years who did they really beat? Has anyone checked how well those teams' seasons ended? Their record against winning teams is never mentioned. Why? It clearly shows what this team and organization is about, fraudulent. They have crumbled at the end of these seasons with losses to average teams at best. This year, they barely beat KC and had their dinner handed to them by the NYJ. In 2005 they lost at home to crappy Buffalo and then another loss to KC as they headed into the playoffs and don't get me started on how 2006 ended in Denver. Trust me, this is what the Brown family wants people. Now they'll go into next year with excuses for why the this year ended early just like 2005, season ticket holders will be optimistic for another vanilla season and Mike Brown, with pitch-fork in hand, will be conjuring up new ways to bankrupt a once great sports town. Please stop showing interest and force this POS out of town!

[Mockenrue]

Agree with most everything, though in the original post I'd throw out the stats of that horrid day in the Meadowlands. The numbers look amazingly bad, but to watch the game, Carson was actually dead accurate most of the time. He was hitting guys in the hands, in the numbers, and his receivers were just dropping everything as though Dan Coats had spiked their Gatorade. His numbers for that game would have been drastically improved if he had gotten any help to speak of.

[NJBENGAL]

Im so glad Zimmer is coming back. I love the fact that you guys give Brian S. credit for fooling Zimmers d with high school plays. Fire Brat because he cant tackle, he cant cover and he cant make kicks. He drops too many balls and lets the grond break up td's. He holds and false starts too much as well. Sarcasm aside Saturday night the offense left plays on the field but the defense just left.