What was the difference between the 4-11-1 team in 2008 to the AFC North Champion 10-6 team this year? Mike Brown will have you believe that it can all be chalked up to Carson Palmer's presence on the field. However, as Showtime explains, Carson is no longer an elite QB. Surely, he is not alone in causing a 6 game swing.
So what drove the Bengals 2nd playoff birth in 19 years? I think it was due to a lot of luck and Mike Zimmer. And what is it going to take to get the Bengals to that next level - where making the playoffs is assured and the expectation is the Super Bowl? A lot of little things changing and the luck continuing. Lets go part by part.
Luck: In 2009, the Bengals had the 21st toughest schedule in the NFL, with opponents posting a season-record of 126-130 (.492). Besides the Bears game, they really never had a win where they dominated a game. This year, as opposed to past years, the Bengals simply got the breaks that Bengals fans are not used to (Denver game notwithstanding). And they mostly stayed injury free, or at least, they did not suffer any catastrophic injury to a big name player that could used a crutch to excuse away another season.
Mike Zimmer: Not much more to add to this than what Joe Reedy has already said: "In two seasons Zimmer has remade the Bengals defense into one of the top units in the NFL. When he took over in 2008 the defense was ranked 27th, giving up 348.8 yards per game the previous season. It improved to 12th last year (325.5 ypg) and was fourth this year (301.4 ypg).
This past season the Bengals were seventh against the run and sixth against the pass. It is only the third time in franchise history and first since 1989 that they had finished in the top 10 in all three categories in the same season.
The defense also yielded the third fewest points in the league at 18.4 per game."
We know the special teams didn't win any games for the Bengals. And here is what Showtime has already written about the offense: "This year, all excuses were gone. Carson was back and claimed to be 100% healthy. Housh was gone, but was replaced with Coles. The running game would be better. The offensive line greatly outperformed expectations. So the old Bengals offense was back, right? Maybe not the old Bengals, but at least a version of the Bengals offense that didn't suck. Well, we got a mediocre offense back. The unit ranked 24th by official NFL stats, 19th by Football Outsiders. Is that terrible? No, it was good enough to win 10 games. Considering that the organization feels Carson is a top-flight quarterback? It's terrible."
It was the defense this year that carried the team, and a lot of the credit goes to Zimmer. The fact that he is back for 3 years is a huge win for the Bengals.
So what has to change for the Bengals to actually win a playoff game? You certainly can't count on luck. And looking at the Bengals schedule next year, the luck may have run out. From Lance, here is the Bengals schedule for 2010:
Home: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers,
Buffalo Bills, Miami Dolphins, San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints,
Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Away: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland
Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, New England Patriots, New York Jets,
Indianapolis Colts, Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers.
GULP.
So is Mike Brown ready to make the changes necessary to get the Bengals to that next step? As Mo Egger pointed out after the playoff loss, this Bengals team is a good team, not a great team. The difference is razor thin. Here are a few things that are obvious moves the Bengals need to make in the offseason:
1. Fire Bratkowski.
2. Maximize draft effectiveness. Understand the system you are trying to build and draft accordingly. Do not draft another Jerome Simpson or (so far) Chase Coffman.
2a. Build scouting department. Clearly, to be able to maximize draft effectiveness, you need to have more scouts to get better analysis of available talent.
3. Figure out what the hell is wrong with Carson. Get him to Dr. James Andrews. Get him in the gym. Something. The Bengals are (still) built around Carson. We don't need him to be putting up Drew Brees numbers. But we also can't have him putting up Trent Edwards numbers.
4. Get some more playmakers on offense. Draft for speed. Look at Austin Collee, Julian Edelman, DeSean Jackson, or Percy Harvin.
5. Depth at TE.
6. Depth at Safety.
The little things are what separate the good teams and great teams. Are the Bengals going to do whatever it takes to get the little things right?
You made a point that I was thinking about last night. Successful teams have a system and draft players that fit their system. As we all know, the Colts are a perfect example. They can find the hidden gems because they know exactly what type of player qualities work for them.
As an antithesis, look at the Raiders. Al Davis drafts players with great stats, but no coach lasts long enough to put a system in place to make it all work together.
Mike Zimmer is another great example of this. For the first time since Sam Wyche, there is a system on defense. And shazam! The system works. Kudos to the Bengals for getting him back.
Does anyone see evidence that Bratkowski has a system? Does a coordinator with a system see his unit's production go into free-fall compared to the rest of the league? I say no and no. Mike, make a second good staff move and go get Hue Jackson for OC.
Posted by: Major Payne | January 13, 2010 at 11:45 AM
Agree that I do not evidence Brat has a "system". If the Bengals take Gresham the TE at 21 is their any evidence we will use him enough to warrant the high selection? We haven't had a TE since Tony McGee and Rodney Holman. For ML's run first scheme are we better going Iupati the guard or take a chance on a playmaking WR such as Bryant/Tate that is sorely needed?
An identity is needed on offense, and as pointed out before on WDR in 2005 Rudi had 1,458 rushing yards which Ced would have came close to had he played in all 16 games. Bernard Scott can be the Chris Perry of 2005...think I just sold myself on WR being the #1 pick.
Posted by: JG | January 13, 2010 at 12:52 PM
I absolutely agree with you JG. I generally want to see a lineman taken first, but this year they have to go with a WR first. Unless they sign a big-time FA in the mean time. With Chris Henry gone, Coles looking old and Caldwell showing that he lacks speed, they need someone to help Chad out. And let's be honest... Chad isn't going to have the elite tools forever.
As much as I would love to have a big time TE, I think speed is needed more to stretch the field. This offense is never going to get anywhere if they get 15+ yard plays to work.
Posted by: Major Payne | January 13, 2010 at 01:36 PM
Do you not realize that each of your points correlate to each other? #1 directly relates to #3 and indirectly to #4. #2 (Coffman, who I think has a bright future, if healthy) is a possible solution to #5. Solving #4 and #5 will solve #3. And, lastly, #2a will solve #'s 4,5 and 6. It's all relative and pretty simple, really.
Posted by: TheCarlPickensClause | January 13, 2010 at 02:13 PM
I know its pointless at this time; however, I just want to point out Mike Brown drafted Jerome Simpson 2 picks ahead of Desean Jackson. Just Saying!
Posted by: Jordan | January 13, 2010 at 02:34 PM
One flaw in your logic for the offense, which I basically agree with. You first have to decide if Carson is an average QB or an elite one. This determines the personnel you place around him. If Carson is elite, he should have the ability to read coverages, extend plays (slide/shuffle/scramble---think Big Ben), and make precision passes that make todays receivers 'open'. To clarify, in a Brees/Brady/Manning type offense, Chad and company would be considered 'open' in 80% more pass attempts than with CP at the helm. Carson looks for the 'wide open' guy, then checks down.
If Carson is simply average (in my opinion he is), then yes you will need elite receivers to make him effective. Go after the biggest/strongest receiver in the draft and try to pick up a speed guy in free agency. If the big wideout is not effective, convert him to a tight end. Continue to build the O-line because CP will demand heavy protection to offset his immobility. And continue to build RBs as the Bengals will be geared to run at a 60/40 clip and only score about 17 points a game.
Posted by: NewQBtime | January 13, 2010 at 02:57 PM
I disagree with moves 5 and 6. NFL teams do not need depth at safety and tight end...they need depth on the offensive and defensive lines.
Losing Crocker and Williams and having to run Tommy Nelson out there hurt, but it did not hurt as much as losing Odom, Peko and Sims for multiple games. The Bengals were getting pressure on opposing QBs when they had a deep rotation of DTs, but as soon as these guys started getting hurt...that pressure disappeared.
And keeping Tommy Nelson over Cory Mays was a terrible decision.
As far as draft philosophies go; the Bengals need to quit dicking around with projects like Simpson and Stacy Andrews. Pick guys you know can come in and contribute ASAP. The Bengals are not good enough to effectively redshirt guys and develop the later.
Posted by: Flash | January 13, 2010 at 02:58 PM
your preamble needs to change to 19 seasons without a playoff win. We might as well be accurate.
Posted by: Neutered Bengal | January 13, 2010 at 03:38 PM
Injury free? You're right we sure didn't get hit with injuries this year:
Reggie Kelly
Antwan Odom (leading the league in sacks at the time)
Roy Williams
Rey Malauaga
This team was hit pretty hard on the defensive side of the ball this year, the difference is Zimmer is able to adjust his defense to the players we have on the field. With Bratkowski I don't think he always calls a horrible game. What makes him horrible is when players go down he's not able to adjust the game plan accordingly. So when we lose Chris Henry he assumes we can run the same plan of attack with a player less skilled and unfortunately the results are horrendous. This would also help explain why the team looks wildly helpless whenever Carson's not in the game.
Posted by: James Francis | January 13, 2010 at 03:55 PM
This post was a little too general. The Bengals had an IR list of 20+ guys last year, and that didn't include Carson Palmer. The return of many of those players has a lot to do with the turnaround as well.
Ignoring offensive line in the draft wouldn't be a good thing either. This team needs guys who can run block AND pass block. I could see drafting a guard at least.
Palmer is a victim of the line, the receiving options and the new system.
Posted by: BP | January 14, 2010 at 09:33 AM
Seriously, Bratkowski won't be gone this season. He'll be here no doubt in my mind. If Brown won't fire him after a 4-11-1 season, what would make you think he'd fire him after a 10-6 season where we had a somewhat decent running game finally?
Posted by: BengalsDouche | January 14, 2010 at 11:03 AM
With all due respect to previous commenters, "depth" at safety is indeed a priority; I would rank it #3 on that list instead of #6. When it comes to pass defence, we were in great shape against #1 and #2 wideouts almost all year (Houston and SD excepted), but got torched as often as not by slot receivers and tight ends. In fact, that (along with shanked field goals) was the margin of victory in the playoff game. The safeties we had were okay in supporting the run, and helping the corners over the top, but really struggled covering the center of the field. We absolutely need a top-shelf coverage safety in the draft, not as "depth" but as a starter; 2nd round or even the 1st.
Posted by: Mr. X | January 15, 2010 at 08:16 PM
What happened to hire a GM? Hire a GM should be number 1.
Posted by: Mark | January 16, 2010 at 01:23 PM