The Path to 11

After Sunday's beat down of Chicago, the Bengals sit at 5-2 going into their bye week.  First round pick Andre Smith looms almost like a mid-season acquisition.  We know what we have without him, and as long as we view whatever he brings as a bonus, it could be a big deal.  Really, the upgrade from Roland/Collins to Smith on the tackle eligible play alone is huge.

Anyways, this post isn't about HippapotaSmith.  It's about how the Bengals can get to 11 wins.  With last year being a very rare exception, 11 wins is enough to get you into the playoffs one way or another.  The Steelers figure to sit at the 10-12 win range.  The Ravens have already lost three, obviously, and both of those teams still have to play each other twice.  Realistically, 11 wins gives the Bengals a decent shot at the AFC North crown.

From my view, anything less than 11 wins at this point would be a disappointment, and anything in single digits would be a failure.  Take a look:

Split Next Two

vs. Baltimore

@ Pittsburgh

A good team doesn't lose both of these games.  The Baltimore game is the obvious "should win," but they need to take one of these next two to avoid falling to 5-4 and crushing all of their momentum coming out of the bye.

Win Next Three

@ Oakland

vs. Cleveland

vs.  Detroit

These are three of the worst teams in the NFL.  If you're going to the playoffs, you cannot be losing to teams of this caliber, especially at home.  A split in the last two and three wins here gives the Bengals a 9-3 record going into the last quarter of the season.

Split Next Four

@ Minnesota

@ San Diego

vs. Kansas City

@ New York Jets

Obviously, the Chiefs game looks like another must win.  With that in mind, the Bengals have to win one of the three road games in this set.  If everyone keeps playing like they're playing now, the Bengals would likely be underdogs in all three.  I'm certainly not eager to take on Adrian Peterson in any sort of must-win game.  Still, a good team has to find a way to win at least one of those three games.  A split in the last four, coupled with the games described above, puts the Bengals at 11-5. 

It doesn't look hard.  I'm not asking for them to be world beaters.  Take care of the games you're supposed to take care of, and I'm essentially saying they have to win one game (out of four) in which they'd be slight underdogs.  A good team does that.  The hardest part of the season is over.  Now the Bengals only have to do exactly what they should do.  Anything less would be uncivilized.

Comments

[FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal]

vs. Baltimore

@ Pittsburgh

A good team doesn't lose both of these games. But it's not difficult to imagine it happening here. Both the Ravens and Steelers will be coming off games against Denver, which presumably are going to be tough on them.

@ Oakland

vs. Cleveland

vs. Detroit

These are three of the worst teams in the NFL. If you're going to the playoffs, you cannot be losing to teams of this caliber, especially at home.

But the Bengals have never done well on West Coast trips (@ Oakland) and the game against the Browns is a division game and it seems the Bengals are the literally the only team Derek Anderson plays well against.

If they lose to the Lions at home the utility of this season is over.

@ Minnesota

@ San Diego

vs. Kansas City

@ New York Jets

It's tough to predict a Bengals win in Minnesota, and they hate playing on the West Coast.

The way things are set up it would not at all be shocking to see the 9-5 Bengals playing in New York the last day against a Jets team that itself needs the win to earn a Wild Card spot.

[WhoDeyFans]

@FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal

I am willing to bet the Bengals are not 9 and 5 going into their last game. Are you planning on a tie again?

I get you are angry with Mike Brown, but what do the Bengals need to do this year to prove they are a decent team this year? They are 3 and 0 in the division and just destroyed the Bears. The same team that beat Pittsburgh 17-14.

[rele]

I called 11-5 before season started and stick by it...Though 12-4 is possible

Possible loss's
Ravens or Steelers hopefully we sweep but i'll take a split
Chargers-Bengal's don't play well on the west coast but hopefully the chargers are bad enough we win it
Vikings-Steelers beat them with a inept offense so we can too...But Still All Day & Harvin are beasts.

PS,Jet's it's possible but hopefully it will be cold so sanchez plays like crap.

[FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal]

oops that was a typo, I meant 9-6. Doh!

[FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal]

My standard for proving they are a decent team is the same as always. Win a playoff game. That's what I call "competitive", unlike Mike Effin' Brown.

[Mockenrue]

WhoDeyFans, I don't think anyone here doubts that the Bengals are a decent team this year. In fact, the only place I've seen them fail to get respect is on NFL.com's "expert" power rankings, where Joe Theismann has them ranked 16th. 16th? Really? Gil Brandt and Vic Carucci have them outside the top ten as well, but Carucci is a rabid Patriot supporter, and Brandt is....old...

In any case, my point isn't to rip on the NFL.com panel, but to say that everywhere else you look people are respecting the Bengals as a solid team; and that includes WDR.

Now naturally, the Bengals won't be 9-5 heading into the closer. I'm sure he meant 9-6, and I can honestly see that too. It's not that we believe this team sucks (especially if the worst we're predicting is still a winning record), but that we have been conditioned by Mike Brown to expect failure and mediocrity. I know you don't fully agree with the writers or regular commenting crowd on this site, but that doesn't warrant putting words in our mouths we didn't say. You were also among the large group of readers conspicuously absent after the loss to Houston. Just saying.

Also just saying, the Steelers have a much less respectable 5-2 than the Bengals do. Pittsburgh was about to get Longwelled to death when Chester Taylor decided to bathe his hands in butter. And ironically, the only reason he was even on the field was that Adrian Peterson had just schooled William Gay for a huge gain. And their earlier return TD would never have happened had they not gotten a phantom tripping call that wiped away a Minnesota TD. So that win is as fluky as the Bengals' loss to Denver week 1, really. Then what? They've beaten 0-6 Tennessee, 3-3 San Diego, 1-6 Cleveland, 1-5 Detroit, and the 6-1 Vikings on a fluke. The Bengals beat 3-3 Chicago, 4-2 Green Bay, 5-2 Pittsburgh, 3-3 Baltimore, 1-6 Cleveland, and had 6-0 Denver all but wrapped up excepting a fluke.

Then look at Pitt's losses: to the Bears (whom the Bengals just roasted) and to the Bengals themselves.

The point being, even though Pitt looks strong on paper and in the standings, I think they got fat on some weak opponents, and I can easily see them dropping some more games here, giving Cincinnati an easier time of winning the North. Of course, with the zebras in your pockets...

[FeedMikeBrownToAquaBengal]

Cincy's DVOA is 15th. Which is pretty close to the Texans. The Ravens are surprisingly 7th and the Steelers are only 12th... part of the reason is the Steelers have so far played the 31st easiest schedule by DVOA.

It should be pointed out however that the Steelers generally beat the snot out of teams they're supposed to beat, that's how they have six Super Bowl rings. Their history of losing the games they should win is therefore a lot smaller than the Bengals'. [When the Steelers disappoint it's generally in the AFC Championship game at home (where their record isn't that hot)]

Why I still don't expect *great* (as opposed to good) things from this year's Bengals model is they really played like crap both against Houston and Cleveland (where they escaped with a win but helped keep Derek Anderson playing in the NFL some more instead of working in a meat packing plant or something). After seven games you have a lot of data... the only way to get better is if (as I pointed out earlier) they start getting contributions from Andre Smith and Chase Coffman (or if miracles truly occur, Jerome Simpson... LOL)

[WhoDeyFans]

@Mockenrue - Nice response. I think the writers on the site have some great ideas, I honestly think it is some of the commenters that leave a sour taste. (not your comment)

The reason I had nothing to respond to after the Houston game was because there was nothing that stuck me as outlandish that I remember. I read almost everything and actually enjoy some of the strong arguments. But, you will also notice most of the comments after the Houston loss from WDR loyalists were "Where are the Sheep now. I told you the Bengals are the worst blah, blah". I am not here to try and debate with comments like that.

My comment above was simply a question trying to understand what was expected this season and to be honest I got the response I expected, a dig on Mike Brown. Barring Mike declaring that Palmer can no longer play I think the pieces are set in motion for this season. next season we may franchise Coats but for this season it is going to be hard for MB to mess things up. I think the Bengals are stronger than 9 and 6 and was just wondering others thoughts.

To respond to your thoughts, if you think Pitt is not so great, why do you think the Bengals will lose to them? Or will the losses be outside that game?

[Broken Hippo]

"...next season we may franchise Coats"

Hillarious! I wish it weren't such a possibility.

I think they finish 11-5, possibly stumbling twice in the next five and closing in dramatic 3-win fashion taking one on the road in SDI (don't forget we're full of Cali boys now) whipping up on KC and clinching a playoff spot in the Meadowlands. If they only take one on the chin in the next 5, finish at 12-4 and the division title.

**If HippoSmith is back in the lineup for BAL, I'll need to change my screen name!!

[blester01]

The way this team plays at times, I don't think they can make it to 12-4, but 10-6 is a strong possibility. If they can play like they did did against the Bears then they might sweep the Ravens and Steelers. I think the Houston game was more of an emotional let down: they just beat the Ravens in a tough game the Sunday before in honor of Zimmer's loss and then buried her two days later. They were out coached and outplayed and were just not prepared, and I will be really surprised to see them have that kind of let down again.

However, they still have some significant holes/ question marks: 1) we have a big hole at DE now (Odom was for real this year); 2) MLB; 3) depth in the secondary (we have no nickel, but Trent has played well at times); and 4) Bratkowski still sucks. Regardless of how they end this season, they have been fun to watch.

I am really looking forward to next year already, b/c I think they are in a great position to make a legitimate SB run. For once, they will actually have a really strong foundation in place with solid and experienced O & D lines (plus good depth), and they have very little holes to fill: 1) RB (if Benson does not resign - 1st or 2nd round pick fixes that though); 2) CB depth; 3) Safety; 4) LB; and 5) TE.

[Mockenrue]

"To respond to your thoughts, if you think Pitt is not so great, why do you think the Bengals will lose to them? Or will the losses be outside that game?"

I also never said they'd lose to Pitt, but it is possible. I can easily envision a scenario in which the Bengals go to Heinz Field and outplay the Steelers, but lose the game anyway in a close one on a single big play or a bad call or two. It wouldn't be the first time. If I had to actually predict the rest of the games, I'd think they're 10-5 entering the Jets game, and that by then the Jets are out of contention so the Bengals win that game as they need to.

Between vs Baltimore and @Pittsburgh I think Baltimore is the bigger threat. They have a huge game this week against Denver. If they win, they've got all sorts of momentum out of the bye. If they lose, they are 3-4 and like an angry beast about to erupt. Either way I think the Bengals have to play totally mistake-free football to get the win there. On the other hand, Pitt is on a bye after a win over the Vikings that has them feeling pretty good, and I think they feel like they should have beaten the Bengals earlier. They get Denver the following week, which again can play out one of two ways. I'm a believer in the Broncos, so if the Ravens beat them, I have to believe they put together a good win at home on Monday night against the Steelers, because the Broncos are the better team and admittedly well-coached. If they beat the Ravens the Steelers have a shot.

But if the Steelers win that game off the bye, especially if the Bengals lose to the Ravens, it will be easy for them to fall into their usual disrespect of us. But really, when you look at recent Bengals wins against the Steelers, they have all (until this year) come at Heinz Field - we don't play poorly there, really. I think that's a game that the Bengals pull out to sweep Pittsburgh.

So yeah. I'm not saying the Bengals will lose to Pitt; despite the records, I firmly believe the Ravens remain better than the Steelers, and I think the next two games might show that.

My fear is that if the Bengals win both of those, I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised to see a let down game going three time zones west against Oakland. We saw them drop one to Houston after winning three consecutive division games. I think after two more tough division wins (should that be how it shakes out), the guys look at the schedule and "breathe easy," and that it costs them a game. That would motivate them to beat down on the Browns and Lions, but either way. So I guess any way you slice it, I'd expect the Bengals to go 4-1 over the next 5 games...and a 9-3 record ain't too shabby...which is pretty much right on par with what Showtime was saying.

[Andy]

I see the Chargers as a game that they'll win. They've got the fifth-worst Run Defense and Brat will probably call on Benson to run all day long. Overall, looks pretty accurate. At this point, the basement should be 9-7, but this team could really go 12-4.

[oakley sunglasses]

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