Watching Phil Rivers, aka King Laserface, move the Chargers offense of super-soldiers down the field effortlessly again and again in the 4th quarter versus the Stillers brought a big smile to my face. And even though the Stillers failed in their 4th consecutive attempt to blow a game where they had a lead, it still seems as if something may be awry in "Football Town USA".
So I went to the usual source for answers; the trusty nerdery at Football Outsiders. Here's some science from them that should give Bengals fans a little bit of hope:
They [Pittsburgh] are also the first team whose defensive DVOA went up over 40 percentage points between one season and the first four games of the next season. You also might notice that none of these teams really got back their defensive mojo...
The point is that Pittsburgh has experienced the biggest fall in performance of a defense as measured by FO from one season to the start of the next. Importantly, the poor performance in the first 4 weeks continued throughout the season for teams that experienced huge drops like Pitt.
Great, right?
Well, of course, there's one huge caveat.
Of course, none of these teams had a player like Troy Polamalu who was injured in the first game but was expected back for most of the season.
So there's also the possibility that Troy Polamalu is such a force that simply losing him caused Pitt's defense to take a historic free-fall. At which point, when he returns, the Stillers will go back to being the Stillers.
But, of course, Troy can't be that good such that the entire decline of their defense is explained by his absence alone? I mean, the Bengals lost Justin Smith (Justin Smith!), bull rusher extraordinaire and mega-franchise player, and we didn't miss a beat...
You might want to explain the abbreviations you use, such as DVOA. Not all of us are stats junkies.
Posted by: Leo deTrotskyo | October 07, 2009 at 02:30 PM
Defense-adjusted Value Over Average
Posted by: Tremain Mack's Cabbie | October 07, 2009 at 02:44 PM
Hell i hust figured he miss spelled DIVA???
Posted by: Rk | October 07, 2009 at 02:58 PM
Interesting article, but I remember now why I didn't become an actuary.
Posted by: Major Payne | October 07, 2009 at 03:36 PM
Yeah - I don't want to get into what DVOA means cause it would take too long and make the post boring as hell. Go to Football Outsiders for the explanation if you're curious.
The point is a more accurate measure of defensive performance than anything you'll find elsewhere (that I know of) shows that the Steelers defense has really fallen off from last year.
Posted by: Sleeping With Bieniemy | October 07, 2009 at 03:43 PM
@SWB, I don't mind you citing a statistical article, but I think when you reference things like DVOA you should include at least a cursory explanation of what it means (and not just what the letters stand for). It is rather obscure, don't you think?
Posted by: Leo deTrotskyo | October 07, 2009 at 04:12 PM
Word - I hear you but I am time constrained and lazy also, so there's that too.
Posted by: Sleeping With Bieniemy | October 07, 2009 at 04:58 PM
Did I step into a time machine and go back three months, back to the days before every third post on this site referenced DVOA or some other highly-accurate Football Outsiders stat? Seriously, where did you guys come from? I could see if this was the first post to reference DVOA, but they've been doing it since LAST YEAR! Try to keep up.
Posted by: Wyatt | October 08, 2009 at 08:37 AM
It's call Troy P is out with an injury. Wake up from your effing dreams about the Stillers D going downhill.
Posted by: mikebrownstinks | October 08, 2009 at 12:45 PM