WDR Official Season Preview Part 2: The Rest

In part 1 we gave our prediction for the season (we have no f ing clue), so now it's time to check out what the rest of the world thinks. 

This turned out to be harder than I thought.  Searching many of the local blogs and media outlets, I had a tough time finding many predictions.  I found plenty of general comments but not a lot of concrete predictions.  So, we will treat this post as an work-in-progress.  As I find new previews I will add them to the post.  Help from readers would be appreciated.

Let's start with everyone's favorite:

Baghdad Hob

Hob likes the Bengals for 10 wins.  Last year he liked the Bengals for 9 wins (though the link has magically disappeared from our post referencing it).  Tough balancing act here.  As the mouthpiece for the team, Hob must be optimistic but not so unrealistic that he gets dismissed entirely.  10-6 does the job.

Again though, this prediction assumes that what is possible is probable.  Is it possible the Bengals go 10-6?  Sure.  Is it probable?  No.  If you go through this season 10 times, I bet the Bengals reach 10 or more wins at most in 4 of them.

ESPN

Bill Simmons:  Bill notes this NFL year is particularly unpredictable, and then goes on to predict anyway.  He has us at 7-9, wants to throw hydrogen-peroxide into his eyes to unsee Andre Smith running a 40 with his shirt off, and blatantly tries to reverse jinx his own Pats by having them lose to Pitt in the AFC championship.

Everyone else can be lumped into one convenient link.  I'll just list the guys you've probably heard of and ignore the rest for now.  It's hard to take lots of these guys seriously though when they say things like this will be the last year of the "lackluster Marvin Lewis era" when Lewis has done more with the Bengals than any coach ever.  But we get a feel for what national media (read, people who probably don't know much) think about us.

Every single writer picks us to finish 3rd in the division (I can't argue with that) except for one which has us 2nd - bless you, Seth Wickersham of ESPN the Magazine.

John Clayton:  "As long as Carson Palmer is healthy -- which could be a big "if" -- the Bengals should win seven or eight games."

Jeffri Chadiha:  "Their success depends greatly on Carson Palmer's ability to stay healthy and Chad Ochocinco's desire to make up for a horrendous 2008 season. Without that, this team is heading for another disastrous year."

Len Pasquarelli:  "The chic pick of a lot of media folks, and getting Carson Palmer back at quarterback will help, even if the receivers aren't as good as a year ago. Problem is, the Bengals have been unable to stop people with their defense." (not sure Len even watched our team last year with those comments...)

James Walker:  "The Bengals will surprise as long as Carson Palmer stays healthy and upright. But until they prove they're tougher and more physical than Baltimore and Pittsburgh, they'll have a hard time in the AFC North." (whatever)

TMQ:  weighs in with a Haiku declaring the Bengals should become a soccer team and will go 4-12. 

The "experts" don't like us so far...hmmm...

CNNSI

Peter King:  Has us picked to go 7-9 and finish 3rd.  As a former beat writer for the Enquirer, he at least has some familiarity with our organization.

Don Banks:  "The presence of HBO's "Hard Knocks" cameras didn't exactly portend great success for the Cowboys and Chiefs the past two years, but there is a growing belief the Bengals will be better than most people expect this year. Carson Palmer is the obvious key to Cincinnati's season, but I still can't get over the fact that his brother, Jordan, started that Web site (RunPee.com) that instructs you on the best times during a movie in which to head for the bathroom. Who has that kind of time on their hands?"

(he has us at 21 in his preseason power rankings...and that paragraph included exactly no helpful information about how the Bengals might actually do this season...I award you no points Don Banks, and may God have mercy on your soul)

CBS

Pete Prisco: Definitely drinking the kool-aid.  No win-loss prediction but Pete has the Bengals in the playoffs defeating the Steelers in the wild-card round.  Bless you, too, Pete Prisco.

Local Media

Chick Ludwig:  So I cannot find the Ludwig-At-Large piece written months ago entitled something like "How the Bengals Get to 10 Wins", but from that title it should pretty obvious Chick thinks the Bengals will go 10-6.  I also found his preview from last year where he predicts, shockingly, 10 wins.  Hmmm...I remember Chick turning negative fast on the Bengals last year before the season, perhaps he revised this June prediction later in the off season.  Regardless, for some reason Chick likes to predict REALLY early.  Discount his opinion for official predictions then since he predicts with a lot less information than everyone else.

Mo Egger: can't find Mo's anywhere.  Perhaps he just said it on the radio. But I did see this comment:

"Two of ESPN's NFL "experts" have the Bengals getting into the playoffs as wild cards. Forget the over/under. The number that matters is 10. I always assume ten wins are needed to get into the playoffs. Assume that they won't win the division. Since NFL realignment in 2002, only two of 14 wild card teams in the AFC have gotten into the playoffs with nine wins. (The number is much higher in the NFC, but let's face it, the NFC sucks) Last year's wild cards needed 11 and 12 wins respectively. So let's focus on ten. Can you find ten wins on that schedule? And if this team does not make the playoffs, which in other cities is the standard of success for an NFL season, is there any way that this season can be considered a success."

Seems like Mo's prediction amounts to "less than 10 wins".

Lance McAlister: same with Lance.  Here's a quote I could find:

"You tell me how fans will feel if the Bengals sit 0-1 around 4:30 Sunday afternoon? Lose Sunday and stare down the barrell of 0-3. The season would be done by September 27."

A recurring theme is the must-win nature of the Denver game.

Joe Reedy:  not sure Joe plays this game

Doc: He plays this game.  He likes the Bengals for 8-8, again notes the must win nature of our opener and believes Baltimore is the class of the AFC North, not Pitt.

C Trent:  last second entry, C Trent goes with 8-8 as well.  And why not?  I did too and it's the modal outcome during the Marvin Lewis Era.

Local Bloggers

Cincy Jungle:  didn't see a firm prediction from any of their writers but their tone appears to be slightly optimistic

Strype Hype:  same for Strype Hype

In fact, same for all the Cincy football blogs.  Help!  This preview aggregator project is looking more and more like a failure.  I need people to play in the sandbox with me dammit.

Others of Note

Football Outsiders:  their simulations in the nerdery predict precisely 6.9 wins.  Before they caught some mistakes in their figures they got to 9 wins though.  What mistakes I ask?  Not sure based on our interview with them.

Real GM Football:  I don't know who these guys are but they seem to go into a lot of depth.  Their prediction is 7-9 with a chance at 9 or 10 wins and a real possibility of 4 or 5 wins.   Hmmm, did I write that preview and just black out?

My best guess is that all predictions aggregate somewhere to a 3rd place finish with about 8 wins.  Not shocking. 

One last thing:  I am also noticing the trend that people generally like and relate well to the players on our team.  Coaches too.  I concur.  Maybe it's just Hard Knocks manipulating me but I definitely find myself actually concerned about things like Chris Pressley and his family.  Hopefully this translates into good karma and maybe an extra win or two.  WDR Policy:  root your ass off for the players and coaches but don't support the front office with your money.

Add your own previews or link to others in the comments...

Comments

[Leo deTrotskyo]

I recommend: http://18to88.com/2009-archives/september/batman.html

[Mockenrue]

One of the ESPN "experts" who chose Cincy as a wild card team was Adam Schefter. He recently sold out to ESPN, but before that was a correspondent working for the league itself. He's extremely knowledgeable and has a lot of connections. He probably knows what he's talking about, for whatever that's worth.

[Theme-Creator]

Broncos : This is a must game for the Bengals. They got more personnel problems than we do, but they also have an owner who will see to it they get fixed. 1-0

The Packers in Greenbay? Enough said: 1-1

Steelers: The only hope is to catch them naping on superbowl hangover. 1-2

Browns: We will split with them. We usually do. 1-3

Ravens: Should be even better this year. 1-4

Texans: Much improved and no issues. They usually play better early in year too. 1-5

Bears: Strong D and offense is much improved. 1-6

Ravens: Bengals loose in Rout. Palmer knocked out for year. 1-7

Steelers: Embarrasing loss. 1-8

Raiders: When was the last time Bengals won on West Coast? They break the streak. 2-8

Browns: Bengals split the series. 3-8

Lions: The will be better this year (can't be worse) The will see this as thier chance at a win. I take Bengals (barely) 4-8

Vikings: They will be putting on push for playoffs. 4-9

Chargers: New West Coast losing streak starts. 4-10

Chiefs: Bengals have packed it in for year. This is a toss-up. 5-10

Jets: Bengals Pull off mircle win: 6-10 Mike Brown points to last two victories as eveidence we are turning the corner and will be competitive next year, again....

The Bronco game is key. If they loose that one at home it might only be a 4 win season.

[Rk]

My predictions go like this 6-10 or 10-6. So we will suck or be good, like how I sound like a pro but dont have to worry about being wrong because I covered both grounds.

[Karl]

I like how Pete Prisco picks the Bengals to finish third in his column from September 2. Then a week later picks them to finish second AND knock off Pittsburgh in the first round.

[WCH]

TMQ had it about right. 4-12. People are giving the Cincinnati personnel much more credit than they deserve.

Yes, you got Maualuga, but as we ALL know, the Benglas had about three position players who were worth a darn top begin with. Having just one player in here doesn't cover the other holes that this team has throughout.

It's a nice story to hear about the new safety, but have you seen him play? It isn't very good. Sure it is good against garbage players from other teams but the first time a Terrell Owens cuts on him on the post -- he's TOAST! We have a great story on the running back side of things -- he looks pretty frisky but have you seen his body? Yes, he can go through line when it is the equivalent of 'Badluck Schleprock' that he is facing in the pre-season. Yep, he can push around "has-beens" and "never-were's" but what is he going to do when Farrior comes on a blitz? Good stories though...

Right now you can't talk to most local 'homers' because there are, right now, as we speak, idiots on radio -- hosts and callers who are thinking that the Bengals are going to go 11-5! I REALLY don't want to have what they're having... ...namely because it has killed their brains!

Carson, God Love Him, is only as good as his teammates and when we see the usual Chris Henry dropping easy passes, when we see that Chad didn't come to play today because his mind is on a computer bulletin board, when Cedric Benson gets banged up because of a pathetically offensive, offensive line and they have to put Boy Wonder in... Dede "Don't call me Tommy" Dorsey -- a man known to experience severe and debilitating injuries if someone even farts in the wind! Do you honestly feel good about "hangin' yer hat" with that kind of personnel?

Again, people are suffering first game fever when all they have to do is simply use their heads. These are the people that I want to sell cars to because they are gullible as all get out!

People, remember that in a team game, it is not one situation or person that makes things go from bad to worse -- it is a combination of things. A QB goes down with an elbow injury, then a starting defensive end gets turf toe, then you have a wide receiver who's been arrested for not paying child support -- as an EXAMPLE, then things can go downhill fast. Lord knows similar things have happened.

Here's a prediction that people should be asking themselves (and it might put these twerps back into reality): How many starters from the first game will be playing as starters (not specialists in certain situations etc.) by game six? How many will be gone because of lengthy injury sessions?

[Jim Silveira]

Interestingly enough. I ran a simulation on whatifsports.com, and Cincy finished 10-6. Split with Pitt and Balt, swept Clev.

Surprise win? SD, GB

Surprise loss? KC, NYJ

I still think 9-7, but who knows. The defense has to get off the field more to get a good season out of the team.

[mike_brown_is_an_assclown]

4 wins at most. The 1st or 2nd win will come at Oakland. This team sucks... more than 1/2 of the roster is no better than replacement level, in fact replacement level would be charitable label for some of them! I don't know what people are smoking.

[Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds, Eviscerator of Steeler Fans]

WTF???? When did Schefter go to ESPN??? Damn, I drink so much I can't keep track of where the analysts are anymore...Schefter jumps ship to ESPN not long after Irvin jumps over to NFLN...weird...but anyhow... What puzzles me is the fact that after 18 years with no playoff wins and only one winning season is why fans still buy into the MFB hoopla? The Bengals being the epitome of mediocrity is an inside job much like(not sure who will actually agree with me on this here but) 9/11.

For the record I do not support either of the major political parties, as they are both flawed in their ways.

SWB, I just wanted to point out that when I lived in Donkey Land for three years that all of the CU homers still worship the ground that Eric Bieniemy walks on, despite the fact that he played there in the early 90's. They worship Kordell Stewart with the same tenacity that they do with Bieniemy, since they haven't even sniffed a good college squad since then.

Also, Boomer once told The Chin that at least he didn't coach the first gay* quarterback during a halftime show during a playoff game once(which was a reference to Kordell Stewart), after Cowher dissed Boomer for being a Bengal QB.

More drunken ranting infused partially by my excessive drinking and the fact that the Shitsburgh Squealers and their fanbase make me a misanthropic motherfucker. WHO DEY, win or lose.(unfortunately the latter is what we usually see.)

*not too sure this is fact, but my stepbrother used to live in Shitsburgh and he told me that Kordell Stewart was an actual homosexual. I also saw an "You Know you're from Pittsburgh If.." list that mentioned the fact that you are from that shithole if you would never let any of your guy friends accept a random car ride from one Kordell Stewart.

Well, I'm off to drink more beer. My over/under for games played in by CP9 still stands.

[mike_brown_is_an_assclown]

@Danimal: 9/11 was sort of an inside job the same the Bengals are sucky and the same way New Orleans was left to drown: Leaving completely incompetent people in charge of needed improvements is almost the same thing as someone sabotaging things intentionally. That's why they call it criminally negligent homicide... Mike Brown is guilty of criminally negligent homicide of... professional football in Cincinnati (Senator Peacock did it in the library, with the Klingler. No! It was Professor Plum in the kitchen with the Akili Smith)

[Sleeping With Bieniemy]

Just found this one a month late...

http://rumorsandrants.com/2009/08/thebakers-nfl-preview-cincinnati-bengals.html

Jim's simulation is looking pretty smart.

[Cheap NFL Jersey]

Leyland in any way instances appears to produce the best choice on the best time, and that consists of batting orders, pinch hitting choices and setting the pitching rotation.