The Option of Collins

Hey, did you know that Andre Smith remains a hold-out? (Alvin Keels wants to use this silly new-age thing called the "slotting system." What?)

Last week I made an argument that the offense's success in '09 depends primarily on the line's progression, and Bob Bratkowski's ability to adjust to it. One would assume the presence of Smith would be vital going by this logic; some, however, don't. The reason? Anthony Collins.

Collins, a fourth round pick out of Kansas, started the final six games last year, performing admirably compared to his blocking colleagues (Gh...Sorry, it's too painful to name them). While I admire his performance amongst a group of misfits, I can't help but look further into his apparent success.

In starting six games, Collins allowed 2.5 sacks, roughly a tad below average spread out over a full season for a tackle. This came with some holds (two), which would be expected from a rookie. Overall, it was a nice start to a fourth rounder's career, especially considering the great peril and change the line underwent.

On the surface, Anthony was fine. But let's take a look at the defenses the Bengals played against in the final six weeks, along with their Football Outsider's adjusted sack rates (sacks per pass attempts, adjusted):

• At Pittsburgh Steelers- 3rd, 8.7%
• Baltimore Ravens- 16th, 6.2%
• At Indianapolis Colts- 22nd, 5.5%
• Washington Redskins- 29th, 4.7%
• At Cleveland Browns- 30th, 4.5%
• Kansas City Chiefs- 32nd, 2.9% (Holy S***!)

Other than the Steelers, every single defense faced was average or below average at rushing the passer (average is 6.2%). The performance of Collins -- only average, if we're being generous -- was much worse than it appeared, if his numbers are adjusted for competition.

I don't say this to insult Collins; I still am happy with the work he did for a rookie. However, for those asserting that the Bengals have no need for Andre Smith, and that Collins is comparable are wrong. Collins is not a first round talent, and at this stage in his career, I'd project him to be a slightly below average to average starter at best. He's fine for depth and/or as the last piece on a solid offensive line.

The Bengals, though, do not have such a unit. Their line is in a rebuilding state, with two veterans (Bobbie Williams, Andrew Whitworth) mixed in. Right tackle happens to be a key position in a pass-heavy offense, if Brat continues to lean that way; consequently, someone better -- hopefully, as long as he develops, Smith -- needs to fill the position for the offense to work. Collins may very well be at the same level as Smith right now, if not better. The difference is that over time, Smith should be a significant improvement over Collins, ready to support all of the three-wide sets Brat likes.

Unfortunately, the window for this to happen in 2009 is closing quickly. Sign him, Mikey Boy, or Pumpkin; keeping Collins at right tackle for the entire season will not support much offensive improvement. I guess they could compete but...wait, now I get it

Comments

[BengalAnthony13]

I don't know that anyone is saying that Collins is better or as good as Andre Smith, but I don't think he's a player to scoff at, either. Though you referenced an obscure statistic that rates the Baltimore Ravens at "16th", I'm pretty sure that if you polled the offensive units around the NFL, I'd bet that players would say that the Ravens are far better and more difficult, defensively, than "middle of the pack"--especially regarding pass rush. Same goes for the Colts. They may not be a solid defensive unit as a whole, but Freeney and Mathis are a force.
I think Collins held up well last year (blanked the Steelers), but I think he's better suited at Left Tackle over the Right side. I don't think he's a fantastic Tackle (not yet, at least), nor do I think he is the player than Andre is. But, as far as backups and other options go, I'm happy to have him there. After having only 6 games under his belt, being a solid college prospect and leaving a year early to be drafted, I think he's got a lot of potential to grow. Your other options would probably be Kooistra or Dennis Roland--yikes. They should have put Collins at LT, Whitworth at LG and Smith at RT. Unfortunately, this holdout has botched things up and not allowed to let the Bengals field their best O-Line possible. And that's a bargaining chip that Keels is currently using.

[kotw65]

It is good to compete, to compete is good! 8 and 8 would be great! The superbowl of competition. Boy, you could see the fear of the players last night when Marvin stated "losing is not acceptable", NOT! "Child Please" It was very aparent Marvin's rant scene was for TV and the players were having none of it.

BTW, How stupid do you have to be? "Child Pleas? How can you eat at Mcdonalds all the time, provide free advertising for them, and not figure out you should maybe own 20 or 30 of them?

[Will]

Can we have the next airplane banner be: "Katie, stop trying to kill Carson Palmer."

[Robinsgr]

Will - I love it!

[mike_brown_stinks_like_elephant_poop]

The next airplane banner should say "Carson Palmer is the new Archie Manning. Maybe his sons will play for the Colts and Giants..."

[JR Johnson]

I think maybe Smith was less than impressive during OTA's and they are not going to wste money on a lazy, out of shape player who will eat up the salary cap. I wish they would not have drafted him in the first place but lets not double the mistake buy overpaying for him.

[KJ]

Collins' pass-blocking is just fine for a right tackle. Probably above average. It is his run blocking that is a concern.