Training camp starts today. Optimism is all over the place, and I understand why. A healthy Carson Palmer, a talented draft class, Chad in a better mood, etc. To some extent it makes sense. But, here at WDR, we have 19 years of Mike Brown's history staring us right in the face, and we look behind the surface level optimism to address how different this Bengals team is than last year's 4-11-1 debacle.
First, Carson Palmer is healthy. Celebrate Good Times!!! Wait a second. How many games did healthy Carson win last year? Never mind. In the words of Drew Rosenhaus - Next Question.
Second, a great draft class? Maybe. But remember, the same bare bones scouting department was responsible for not only evaluating hundreds of college players, but also providing input on the dozens of free agents across the NFL. Also, Andre Smith does not help unless he is in camp. I know most/many of the other first round picks have not signed. So there still is time, and the Bengals have not messed this up yet. But really, deep down, how much confidence do you have that Andre Smith will be in camp, in shape within the week? If he is, kudos to Mikey and the crew. If not, just another piece of evidence why Mike Brown is the most incompetent owner in the history of pro sports.
More after the jump.
Next, as previously discussed, the Bengals are the only team who drafted in the top 10 who made zero coaching/front office changes. Every other team who had a poor season last year, decided that new coaches and/or a front office was necessary to win. The Bengals? Nothing wrong here! Do you have confidence the Bengals were right and the 9 other NFL teams were wrong? Didn't think so.
While Mike Brown and Co. are desperately trying to sell optimism, fans are not buying it. To put it more specifically, fans are not buying tickets. We have covered this ad naseum, but tickets are not selling. WDR has predicted blackouts for some time, and we have heard rumblings that the 4 and 2 game ticket packs have sold even worse than expected. Mike Brown is banking on positive press coverage, both locally and with Hard Knocks to convince fans that things are different. Our job is to point out that things really are not different. Mike Brown is still in charge, he still does not employ football minds, and does not invest in scouting and player development.
While blackouts may anger many local Bengal fans that can not afford to pay 60+ dollars (plus parking, etc) to attend games, but still want to watch the Bengals play, there is one even worse danger for Mike Brown and Co. Fans do not care. Think about that for a second. What happens if games are blacked out, and Cincinnati Bengal fans find something else to do with their precious Sunday afternoon. What if these other activities are far more enjoyable than watching the Bengals? Maybe some play a round of golf. Maybe some people get some yard work done and please the Misses. Maybe a few go on a bike ride with the kids. Maybe some watch other, successful NFL teams. Hell, maybe a couple people decide to get some extra work done to please the boss or even read a book. I am sure Mike Brown stays awake at night, wondering, what would happen if fans just simply move on, and never come back. WDR will discuss blackouts, and what they mean for all parties involved in depth, at a later date.
Finally, the biggest reason not to be optimistic about the upcoming Cincinnati Bengals season, Vegas is not optimistic. Over/under for wins are between 6-7 wins, one of the worst in the NFL. Vegas is smart, they have very smart people, with very powerful computers, looking over vast amounts of data to predict how sporting events will unfold. Clearly, they are not perfect. They missed Atlanta and Miami last year. But more often than not, they are right. So, if you really want to be optimistic you have two options. First, just block out all evidence to the contrary and go on with the same blind optimism that has allowed Mike Brown to operate year after year. Or, you can think really hard, look at both sides of the issue, and try to conclude the Bengals will win 10 games this year. If you take the latter option, it will be very difficult to honestly arrive at a positive conclusion.
If I were betting man, I would take the over, 7 to 9 wins this year, maybe ha.
Posted by: CurseofBoJackson | July 31, 2009 at 12:37 PM
Agree on the coaching change point. Pretty freakin dumb to keep Ole Bob around. I am ok with Zimmer.
Your point on healthy Palmer is a little weak. He lost to the Ravens (AFC Championship game) and the Titans who threatened to go undefeated before he got hurt. He played Dallas injured.
Posted by: Gambling Fool | July 31, 2009 at 02:00 PM
It won't be merely blind optimism to say that the team will likely post a better result this year. A 7 or 8 win season should be reasonably doable when you consider the following:
Combined record of the teams we played in '08 but won't play in '09 (Tennessee, Indianapolis, NY Giants, Philly, Dallas, Washington, Jacksonville): 68 - 43 - 1.
Combined record of their 2009 replacements on the schedule (Minnesota, Chicago, Denver, San Diego, Green Bay, Oakland, Detroit): 46 - 66.
Now predicting 10 wins plus sight unseen for this team, that would involve Kool-Aid.
Posted by: Mr. X | July 31, 2009 at 07:00 PM
For what it's worth, the Bengals are at 7.5 on the over/under season wins at the Planet Hollywood sports book here in Vegas. 60/1 to win the Super Bowl, in the lower third of teams as far as odds go. The Clowns are 75/1, if I recall what I saw yesterday in the book correctly. I'll again put my $20 for the Super Bowl win ticket in this week. I figure I've lost $200 so far in ten years. If I win, it's $1200. Who dey!?
Posted by: VegasKev | July 31, 2009 at 07:03 PM
mike brown has ruined football for me. He sucks big donkey nuts.Hire a G.M you old rancid FOOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: kingbear | July 31, 2009 at 10:45 PM
The more important bets are when will Mike Brown finally die and who he wills his share to.
Posted by: MikeBrownIsScum | July 31, 2009 at 10:59 PM
I had season tickets for 12 yrs.... then they went 2-14... and I dropped them... they hired Marvin.... had a glimmer of hope... I stood fast... took my sundays back... learded how to fly radio control planes with my son... best decision ever ! I have not missed the frustration and disappointment. I went through the David Klingler years, it was pathetic.
The 2-14 season... I could not even give the last 2 home games away.... so I gave them to the pizza delivery man.
All I can say is "thanks Mike" I have a great relationship with my son now :)
Posted by: I have a life.... do what I did.... give it up on these losers | August 03, 2009 at 08:55 AM