Sorting Through the Noise

Lots of optimism these days.  From Carson.  From Chad.  From ESPN columnists.  From SI columnists.  From fans.  From Baghdad.

For the fan in me, this is all well and good.  For the guy-who-wants-change in me, this is not all that great (to the extent it leads to spending on the Bengals).

But let me try to briefly cut through the crap and figure out if optimism is warranted.  Optimism in my mind means the Bengals have a playoff team.  I believe the following:

1. The Bengals will likely be as good or better this year than last year at Q, RB, WR, DL, LB, & S
2. The Bengals will likely be as good or worse this year than last year at OL & CB

Let's ignore CB since I'm mostly basing that off of, well, nothing.  Basically, what I've said is that I think that the entire defense should be better while I have huge concerns about our offense - notably the O-line.

Now let's look at two recent excerpts regarding our offensive line.  First from Chick:

Offensive line coach Paul Alexander’s unit is under pressure to keep Carson Palmer upright and open holes for Cedric Benson.

“It’s the biggest challenge we’ve ever had,” Alexander said. “The attitude’s been right. They’re working hard. They’re competitive. They’re tough. And we have some strong leaders.”

Hmmmm.  I'd prefer to hear less about the O-line's "attitude" and more about their "being good".  Though maybe it's a sign our DL may actually get pressure this year (Douche Bag alert!).  And here's this from Baghdad Hob:

...with all the scuttlebutt that the Bengals are digging in for a long holdout with Smith...

These two tidbits only reinforce my concerns.  And as the O-line goes, so goes the offense.  Make no mistake. 

My conclusion:  in a division featuring both representatives in last year's AFC Championship game, a decent-to-good defense and a sketchy O-line will not get it done.  I hope I am wrong.

Comments

[Rich]

You are probably right, but it still is the best time of year. The time before they start losing.

[Thom Tadsen]

The Bengals are screwed. This optimism is over hyped.
This is how I would rate this team going down the list.

QB A
RB C-
WR B
OL C-

DL C-
LB C+
DB C-

ST C+

Basically, every team Mike Brown has ever fielded since 91, with addition of Palmer that pushes this team from being 3-4 win team to a 7-8 win team. Same as it has always been. Mike's right, the QB is the most important position, now if they could just field an actual team with a few play makers around him they would be set. That's never going to happen though.

[Gambling Fool]

C+ linebackers? B Wide outs? Who would get A's in the league from you?

[RKnCincy]

This team is going to be worst than George W. Bush's grades in school!!!

[Major Payne]

How can you tell anything substantive -- good or bad -- from football in shorts? Until training camp, there is nothing to be offered but conjecture, opinion and spin.

[BengalAnthony13]

SWB --

You make the most sense of all authors on this site. It's seriously nice to read your articles as opposed to some of the other garbage posted here. You, as a Bengals fan, are realistic, as opposed to being eternally pessimistic like the other authors here. This team is vastly improved from 2008, leaving room for optimism as you said. The Bengals were the most active in free agency that I can ever remember them being, and had a stellar draft no matter which way you look at it. The PROBLEM is that there were so many holes to fill from 2008 to this season that they couldn't possibly fill every one of them in ONE offseason.
I agree and disagree that that the DB's are a problem. Say what you want about Roy Williams, but he provides depth and pro bowls to a secondary that hasn't had any since Ashley Ambrose and Deltha O'Neal. They are very deep at safety but terribly weak at CB. Yes, the two starters are former first round picks, but they've been inconsistent and they don't have anything resembling a nickel corner. It's a good thing that the other AFC North teams are weak at WR. However, anything resembling a pass rush (if they can even get one) would help the CB's immensely.
As for the O-Line, that's where it's the most scary. They'll either overachieve and give Carson and Benson the blocking they need, or it will be porous and messy. Regardless, I still feel that there's no way that the O-Line will be as bad as they were last year. I'm conflicted: I think that the 2009 Bengals have more talent than the 2008 Atlanta Falcons that went 11-5, but I still fear that they may be missing some critical pieces to get them past mediocrity.

[Sleeping With Bieniemy]

Major Payne - just getting back some players that were injured can allow you to conclude that some positions will be better without needing training camp/regular season to confirm.

BengalAnthony13 - as a realist, it should be noted I am eternally pessimistic and skeptical of the Brown Family and all they do. But this does not go for the players, coaches (except Brat) and fans...whom I wish the best for and I consider collateral damage in Mikey's misguided quest to do things his way.

[Major Payne]

True enough. However, since the thrust of the article was about concerns with the O-line, that was what I had in mind.

With only Big Bobbie and Whit returning, there is no way to assess this year's O-line until real action starts. Nobody can report on the O-line "being good" when there is ZERO data on 3/5ths of the starters. As close as we can get is reports of Kyle Cook scuffling with Dhani and Rashad... nice to hear about that kind of nastiness, but what the heck does it tell us about how well Cook can play in a real game?

[Thom Tadsen]

"As close as we can get is reports of Kyle Cook scuffling with Dhani and Rashad... "

As big of a pessimist as I am about the Bengals, I have really good feeling about Kyle Cook. The 3 biggest things about a center IMO are 1.Can he communicate? Does he know the offense? And is strong enough to block nose tackles one on one. Everything I have read about Cook says he has all three of those things. So I am pleasantly optimistic about him.

Now, Whit at LT? God I hope it works, he got took badly by elite pass rushers as a rookie, but looked good otherwise.

Livings? No clue.

Hippopotta Smith? All indications are he’s a bad character doosh who’s going to hold out, get rich, and underperform.

Offensive lines success is bread through continuity, and 4 out 5 starts weren’t there opening day last year. BAD SIGN!

[BengalAnthony13]

Thom --

Agree and disagree. From the sounds of things, Cook sounds like a much better center than Ghiacuic. I like the Luigs kid though, too. Either way, that's going to be an upgrade. Give Whitworth some credit--he came in to play the hardest position on the line against arguably the best DE in football as a rookie and struggled. Otherwise, he's been their best O-Lineman since Willie and Steinbach.
As for Andre, jury's still out on him. No question that as far as potential goes, the sky's the limit. He hasn't done anything "wrong" per se, but there are some red flags in terms of questionable character. Apparently, he's been working hard and looking relatively good in camp. Although I have to say that I can honestly NEVER remember so many people (team included) predicting a long and ugly holdout so early. Just plain weird. As for the "4 of 5 starters gone" statement, that's not necessarily a bad thing. When a group of guys are awful together (a la 2008), you blow it up and try and create a more effective unit. My fear isn't that I think they'll be as bad or worse than last year (there's no way that they O-Line could be worse), but rather if they'll be improved ENOUGH to get them over the hump. It's a huge key to their success/failure and their biggest question mark right now, so we'll see.

[J M]

It's a shame that we have to wait and see about the O-line. The offseason is a good time to improve the unit. How much better would we be had we signed a left tackle. Say Pace. Then left Whit at guard. Then you say hey the center just can't be worse and we have the best tackle in the draft.

They got cheap on us guys. They are protecting their 130 million dollar centerpiece with backups and guys out of position.

As far as hype and excitement there are two things that I am happy about that I haven't read much about so far.

One is Pat Sims This guy has a ton of talent and I think he'll play himself as the starter on 1st and second with maybe Tank coming in on third for pass rush. I'm happy about Sims.

I am happy about the draft. How many times have we seen the Bengals pass on what many feel was the best player on the board and take someone you've never heard of? When the last third round pick was up I was chanting Coffman, Coffman, and they got him. This guy is a stud and only dropped due to lack of workouts and injury. I am very happy with the thought of him in the redzone and on third down. He's right at 6'6" and I can't wait to see him run to the corner of the end zone, turn around, and jump for a Carson TD pass. Coffman was the best pass catching tight end in college for the last couple of years. I think 4 years from now he'll be giving Rey a run for his money on who the steal of this draft was.

See we're not all negative. But don't believe for a second that the O-Line has gotten better just because they say so. The defense has much better depth and Rivers will be healthy,but why are we still thin at corner. Forget nickel, There's no way that both starting corners play every down every game. You need to be competent about 4 deep at corner. Look at the Eagles.

[Steve]

All this "optimism" really only exists for 2 reasons:

1) So that HBO can market its new season of Hardknocks - featuring the Bungles.
2) To try and fend off the substantial decline in ticket sales for this upcoming season.

This is NOT a playoff team. This team will NOT break 0.500. This team will NOT beat Pittsburgh in either game. This team will finish LAST in the AFC North. F'ing Cleveland is going to field a better team.

Please, fellow Bungle fans, do not buy the hype. We are going to be so bad that we'll be lucky to have our games highlighted at all by SportsCenter.

Stick with the Revolution!