Vegas/Peter King Have Bengals Winning 6 Games in 2009

Early NFL Lines came out after the NFL Draft and pegged the o/u for Bengals wins at 5.5.  The line has since risen to 6.  And Peter King writes this in his off season summary, ranking the Bengals as the 28th best team in the league going into 2009.

28. Cincinnati
I find myself liking what the Bengals have done in the offseason, with the exception of not re-signing a sure 100-catch guy in T.J. Houshmandzadeh. And though they're going to have strong personalities to handle in Tank Johnson and Andre Smith, both should make this team more competitive. Love the Rey Maualuga pick; he'll be a gem, even if he comes off the field on third down. I'd probably have them in the seven-win range if I trusted Carson Palmer to come back at his peak from elbow injury, because Cincinnati will have to score a lot of points to win.

WDR, like most Bengals fans, is cautiously optimistic about this upcoming season.  But we also, unfortunately, think that Vegas and Peter King have it pretty much right.   Try and find me 7 wins on the Bengals much easier schedule next year with Carson coming back from elbow problems and a very inexperienced offensive line in front of him.  WDR still believes in our manifesto to the left that offensive and defensive line depth are central to a winning team.   Add in that Coles is a step down from TJ, Tank Johnson is still a question mark, and the Bengals remain very weak in the front office (which also scouts upcoming games) and WDR would struggle with this bet. 

In summary, WDR agrees that his has been a strong offseason. But we also believe that it is more than likely that the 2009 Bengals are once again on vacation during January.  Or, to put it anther way, Vegas odds are a better barometer than the averge Bengals fan (or Bengals website) as a predictor for the season. 

Note: On Sportsbook.com (more coming from WDR and sportsbook.com soon), the over 6 games is at -150 and the under 6 games is at +120, meaning the over is the heavy favorite - one would have to wager $150 to win $100 if betting the over, but if he wagered $100 he would win $120 if betting the under.

Comments

[BILL]

Smart Guy- I see an easy six wins in there. Have you guys looked at the schedule?? KC, Chi, Minny, Clex2, Split with Bal, GB, DEN, OAK, DET. Is SD that great? How bout the Jets? Show a little optimism instead of reading major douches like King and Walker.

[orangeandblack]

My goal is 8 wins

[Robinsgr]

Sadly, eight wins would be acceptable to most fans because it would not be a "losing" season.

[Major Payne]

The trouble here for everyone -- sportswriters, WDR, and me -- is that success for the Bengals this year will be predicated on their defense. It is a completely different M.O. than we are used to, so how do we feel solid gauging it? We are accustomed to 38-35 shootouts, but we are facing a season of 17-10 slugging matches unless the offense takes several big strides forward.

I am eager to see what this season will bring because finally the Bengals are not treating the defense like an after-thought. They seem to have the D to hold opponents down, so hopefully they score enough to win and go 11-5. But if key people struggle -- Palmer, Smith, Collins, Benson -- and the D-line still gets no pressure, this could easily be another 5-11 year. The potential is there, but the unknowns are great.

[Richard]

Maybe the defense getting beefed up is a sign that he is letting marvin (a defenseive man) have a little more control of the team?

[BMN]

Not related to this specific topic, but hey, look at what's happening in Chicago since an incompetent greedy owner passed away:

http://sports.yahoo.com/nhl/recap?gid=2009051104

Just thought I'd pass it along.

[Thom Tadsen]

Duh, these are the Bengals. There is no way there are winning more than 6 games this year.

Every single position group on offense is a huge question mark. They could all blow up in our face. OL, QB, RB, WR, TE. These all have great potential to suck balls this season.

Our D line has went from bad to mediocre.

Our LB's are a huge question mark.

The best thing about this team is the depth at safety and our new punter. facepalm

Ya 6 wins seems about right and if think different your dreaming.

I expect more from Who Dey Revolution than to buy into the hype of the off season. This season will blow just like all the rest till Mike Brown mercifully dies of old age.

[Thom Tadsen]

"The trouble here for everyone -- sportswriters, WDR, and me -- is that success for the Bengals this year will be predicated on their defense. "

Well if were holding out hope that the D that gave up over 30 points per game 50% of the time in the division this year is going to magically morph into something special with the addition of a couple rookies and a couple of Dallas Cowboy castoffs your in for rude awakening.

[Capt. Steve-O]

jeezus H, come on guys. Even the most ardent MFB haters (myself included) have to have some sort of optimism for this year right? Call me delusional if you will but I've got good vibes about the possibility of a winning season this year. I think we're a team that could go 11-5 just as easily as 5-11. We shall see.

[Thom Tadsen]

"jeezus H, come on guys. Even the most ardent MFB haters (myself included) have to have some sort of optimism for this year right? Call me delusional if you will but I've got good vibes about the possibility of a winning season this year. I think we're a team that could go 11-5 just as easily as 5-11. We shall see."

Delusional.

[Mockenrue]

Look at offseason moves on the other teams too. Here's my gut instincts at work regarding each game this season.

1 - Broncos - Win, because they won't have it together yet (if they ever do in 2009)
2 - Packers - Loss. The move to 3-4 will be successful and they are a better team regardless.
3 - Steelers - Loss. The gap is wide.
4 - Browns - Win. Anderson or Quinn, take your pick. Either one throws more TDs to Johnathan Joseph than Browns receivers.
5 - Ravens - Loss. The defensive change hurts Baltimore, but I expect to be outcoached.
6 - Texans - Loss. Houston will probably be a wild card team this year. I really like how they've improved.
7 - Bears - Loss. Don't write off Chicago as 2008. Cutler changes everything offensively for that team, and the defense will regain a step.
8 - Bye.
9 - Ravens - Loss. What was a close game the first time around will probably not be close the second time.
10 - Steelers - Loss. After the post-bye letdown, we start hearing about how this is a "must-win" game, and how the division rivalry is strong and there's going to be some smash mouth football, and all the other cliches we usually hear before Pittsburgh smacks us back to reality.
11 - Raiders - Win. Oakland reminds this team it can win...against broken franchises.
12 - Browns - Win. The Dead Cat Bounce makes its move.
13 - Lions - Win. By now Stafford might be starting. And making lots of mistakes.
14 - Vikings - Loss. Minnesota will still have (somewhat dim) playoff hopes and after three straight Bengals wins won't be able to overlook the Bengals. And that's the only way they'd lose.
15 - Chargers - Loss. I don't think San Diego is all that. I don't think they're Super Bowl bound. I do know they are better than Cincinnati.
16 - Chiefs - Loss. Ever since killing Trent Green's career, we've gotten accustomed to beating the Chiefs every year. It might as well be a division game at this point, because there is a perennial week 16 or 17 game between the two franchises. Sadly, this year, the Chiefs are not going to scrape the bottom of the barrel. The Bengals will be demoralized again after losing to a couple real teams.
17 - Jets - Win. Two teams that are out of it play in a meaningless week 17 game. Afterwards Mike Brown tells the press "We ended on a high note and I'm optimistic for 2010."

Final record: 6-10.
Hobspin: Improvement over 2008!
Pundits: "Look out for the Bengals in 2010. They could be a surprise playoff team."
WDR: "Hire a g-dd-mn GM already."

Viva.

[Thom Tadsen]

Final record: 6-10.
Hobspin: Improvement over 2008!
Pundits: "Look out for the Bengals in 2010. They could be a surprise playoff team."
WDR: "Hire a g-dd-mn GM already."

Viva.

Yup, you pretty much nailed it. Thank god the Browns V.2 are usually even bigger train wrecks than the Bengals. It's bad enough having the real Browns and Steelers in our division. What if the Browns V.2 was a competent expansion franchise like the Jags or Panthers. Yikes.

[BengalAnthony13]

Stupid. Peter King hates the Bengals--he always has. He tosses off to pictures of Tom Kraft, Tom Brady and the Patriots logo in general. This team will be much improved over last year's squad. Deal with it.

[Whit]

I am not sure why everyone thinks losing T.J is soooo bad. He did have 92 catches(?) but did not have 1000 yards. Thats impossible to do. I can't do the math with out the numbers but he wasn't getting yards. I might add that it wasn't against the opposing teams number one corner either. We will see if he can duplicate without Chad taking some of the heat of him.

[Mockenrue]

It's not about TJ, at least not for me. I think Coles is a very competent replacement for his production, if not his attitude. I also do think this Bengals squad has potential. But I am being realistic. The same people are running the team. And even if we end up looking back on this year's draft and call it the best ever, they are still rookies this year. Immediate elite production is just not fair to expect out of any of them. Give it 2-3 years before that happens. And even with all of this, I believe they will win two more games than last year.

I'm not really sure what you want me to say beyond that; putting the Bengals in the playoffs is simply not realistic at this point.

[Danimal, Destroyer of Worlds, Eviscerator of Steeler Fans]

I don't think Peter King liked the Bengals even when he wrote for the Enquirer. And I hate the man with the same passion that KSK does.