The Effect of Silent Evidence

By recommendation of Comrade Bienemy, I have been reading an incredibly interesting (and way above my head) book called The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. In it he talks about something called silent evidence, which is the result of the human tendency to consider only the facts presented, while ignoring other relevant facts that are less apparent, or that take more energy to uncover.

This concept made me think of the NFL college talent scouting process, and how scouts are charged with not only analyzing the apparent facts of potential draft picks, but by going several layers deeper into the player's history and personality traits in order to determine their compatibility with the team's philosophy. The silent evidence in this case would not just be a quick search of a player's criminal history, which would only include the times they got caught. Besides, this information is gathered by the league office, making it widely available to every NFL team. The silent evidence would be the kind of things players have done in the past WITHOUT getting caught, or simply the character flaws that the college coach of a player isn't going to give away to a scout that he does not know.

What I have been told by an anonymous Comrade who has an in depth knowledge of the NFL scouting process is that aside from analyzing film and practices all year long, a lot of the real data is learned (just like working in the corporate world and being in sales) in that you have to develop relationships. The real trade secret is getting to know the assistant coaches. It takes time, many years to build a relationship with an assistant coach, as they are the ones who will tell you the real character of the college player. All criminal information is supposed to be sent to the NFL league office now, so technically, all teams should have access to that high level type of information. But just as we all know from our college experiences, there are many star players or kids of multi-millionaires, where certain known incidents just never seem to make it to campus security or to the local police recordings. 

Take, for example, a tale of two different scouts.  Bobby McGee is the west coast college talent scout for the Raiders.  He travels from college to college, spending a few hours at each to analyze what he sees in the players.  He cannot spend much more time at each because the Raiders scouting staff is overstretched and underpaid.  In his visits, all of the head coaches that he talks to play up the abilities of their players because the more players they have that go on to play on Sundays, the better off their program will be.

On the other hand you've got Jack Bauer who is the scout for the Broncos.  This guy has a lot smaller territory to cover, and he spends a lot more time with each college team getting to know the head coaches and even more importantly the assistant coaches.  Hell, Jack is personal friends with most of these coaches, and even goes over to their houses for dinner sometimes.  He is constantly in touch with these guys, and is able to build relationships that earn trust, in addition to very valuable bits of information on these college players.  

Now, take a potential 4th round pick offensive tackle from Boise State who is working out for scouts inside the stadium and not many NFL teams have someone there because Boise State had a light senior class meaning not many of them have a chance to play on Sundays. The Raiders and Broncos need a tackle, so both scouts are on the field timing his 40 yard dash time and seeing what he bench presses on a cold March day. If Bobby invites the OL coach to lunch and Jack invites him to golf after practice tomorrow, who do you think he’s going to accept?  Even if he’s busy, and Jack gets a chance to walk with him to the car after practice, he just might say, “Jack, this kid is a bad apple and he just knocked up his ex girlfriend so he’s been a nightmare to be around. He was bad in the clubhouse this year and he never goes to class, and even if you could get him in the 5^th round, you probably should stay away.”

 Whereas, Bobby sees the same coach tomorrow, he might say, “Bob, this kid has missed a few classes over the years, but you just watched his brute strength and his burst of speed…I expect to see him succeed on Sundays.”

Now, the Bengals will tell us with a straight face that they get the same information as any other team, even though they have only 2 scouts, no GM, and no interns. They “technically” get the league information that they all get regarding the criminal checks, but that won’t tell them too much. Hell, the Bengals don't even take these criminal checks into account, considering they still cant break the habit of drafting idiots like Bernard Scott.  Since Mikey won’t pay for more scouts, he has to depend on his coaches to scout and find out the kind of stuff you wont see on a stat sheet or criminal report. And guess what? These coaches are damned tired. They work 18-19 hour days during the season, worked the senior bowl after the season ended and now need to get ready for upcoming mini camps and the draft. Do we really think they have the time in a day to track down the Boise State offensive line coach? This coach at the college level is going to tell Marvin Lewis or Bratkowsky over the phone the same thing the coach told Bobby above.

This is exactly the type of informational edge that helps at the margin.  A player's natural ability is pretty well known without needing in depth research, but this helps when all else being equal you are deciding between a couple players of similar ability (Andre Smith v Eugene Monroe, for example). Why do you think teams like the Patriots and the Steelers are consistently dominant?  Every other team sees the same game tapes, the same combine, and hears the same sales pitch from the college coaches. But only the hardest workin and most respected scouts can get their hands on these vital facts that can make or break a player in the NFL. 

This kind of oversight is part of what has gotten Mike Brown to this point in his career as an owner: 18 years, 17 non-winning seasons, no playoff wins, and 1 city full of pissed of football fans.  It is time he lets go of the reigns and lets some real football minds make the decisions for this once great NFL franchise.  By the way, if you haven't joined the revolution yet, click here and become one of the millions of Bengals fans who want to make a change.   

Comments

[Sleeping With Bieniemy]

Holy shit. Forget all this silent evidence stuff: Jack Bauer scouts for the Broncos?

Are we sure he doesn't waterboard the assistant coaches to get classified info about potential draft picks?

The Broncos clearly are a franchise looking for every informational edge.

[LeeRoy Jenkins]

The Bengals do not understand why you would pay someone to scout players. ESPN Insider is only 5 bucks a month.

[Richard Kraft]

What does the average scout get paid in todays times?

[Boriskat]

this is a really excellent piece. I think you're understanding the book just fine...

[Chairman Meow]

Richard,
As far as I know, they get paid about 60-70k per year. However the Bengals scouts are paid commission*, based on metrics such as actual criminals scouted, potential criminals scouted, deadbeat douchbags scouted, and chronic underachievers scouted...

*This is completely not true

[Richard Kraft]

I was just tryin to figure out how many more scouts we could afford if we didn't have a GM getting bonuses

[T]

Just a quick thought. The Hard Knocks thing could be an invaluable means of exposure for WDR. Someone should look into how to best make that happen.

[Richard Kraft]

I say we go to training camp with signs and tee shirts we hae to do something we cant just let this one go

[eric]

I am with richard kraft, lets find something to do.

[Chairman Meow]

gentlemen,
rest assured that we've got something in the works... your ideas are welcome, so please share if you have some.

[Mike Rabiner]

If the Bengals had a real scouting department, Steve Mayne would be returning kicks on Sundays.

[Hofbraunow]

"The Bengals do not understand why you would pay someone to scout players. ESPN Insider is only 5 bucks a month."

-LeeRoy Jenkins

Plus, don't they sell NCAA/Big/Pac/etc-Ten football cards at Mikey's local UDF?

[Hofbraunow]

...Not to mention the effect of silent-but-deadly evidence (without benefit of the 'he-who-smelt-it' disclaimer)...

I would like to take this time to break that wind- I mean, silence,

with a ¡VIVA!

and to quote an unnamed Comrade (you know who you are) "Hot oil be damned!"