WhoDeyRevolution

Friday Rambling: Better Stats - Just One Thing a Real Front Office Could Do

Aside from WDR (obviously), as best I can tell the consensus among fans is that the Bengals off season was solid. 

In fact, people would likely rank it better than most other teams had.  Given that those other teams have real front offices not run by a small clique of friends and family like the Bengals, I think people might wonder, "So why do we need to oust control from the Brown Family anyway?"

Well the main reason is 18 years of history.  But let's focus on something else since overwhelming historical evidence is apparently unconvincing.

I read this article the other month by Bill Simmons, who I conservatively estimate drives 2/3rds of all web traffic at ESPN.com.  In it he discusses how the NBA front offices are trying to use new statistics to better capture how productive players are; in other words, they are trying to do for basketball what sabermetrics did for baseball.  Just like wins, batting average, RBIs, etc didn't capture as accurately as possible player performance in baseball...traditional points, rebounds, assists, etc. just do not capture as accurately as possible player performance in basketball.

The GM of Houston, Daryl Morey, receives special attention in the article because of his particular tenacious focus on measuring better stats, like quantifying the impact of a role player:

After watching Anderson Varejao throttle the Clips with his low-post D recently, I e-mailed Daryl, wondering why there wasn't a stat called Stops, for when a defender prevents his opponent from scoring on an isolation play, or a low-post or perimeter play. Come up with an unforced turnover in the process, and it's a "Superstop." Daryl's response: "Why do you think we have Chuck Hayes?"

And of real importance was this line:

The statistical intelligence in NBA front offices is superior for one simple reason: They spend millions of dollars to figure this stuff out. Daryl has many minions crunching numbers.  At the conference, Hollinger joked that Daryl was lucky the league hasn't imposed a salary cap on stat guys.

Measuring more nuanced stats is easiest in baseball since you really only measure one isolated event at a time (each at bat).  Basketball is more difficult as you have a fluid, continuous state of play with ten players simultaneously affecting the outcome at all times.  Football adds even more complexity.  But just because it's more difficult does not mean progress cannot be made and isn't already being made.

The Battle of Ohio

For your Friday viewing enjoyment and to waste time at work:

Boasting an NFL team adds instant credibility to any city. Though, telling someone you are from Cincinnati may induce a chuckle or two from those who associate Cincinnati with the Bengals, we can still hold our heads high, be proud of our team and thankful that our city can support a team in America's premier professional sports league. 

Professional sports teams are a great base to build a city's tourism and revenue structure around. However, in order to be a destination capital, a city needs to build around that base in order to maximize it's national visibility. 

While CIncinnati is in the midst of constructing a billion dollar riverfront development between Paul Brown Stadium and Great American Ballpark known as "The Banks" in an effort to catapult the Queen City into a Midwestern tourism destination, our friends up north have been constructing their own tourism campaign. Some may call Cleveland the "Mistake by the Lake" but I venture to say that after this effort, Cincinnati will have a LOT of catching up to do.

Please Sign HippopataSmith Early, Otherwise...

The O Line last year sucked. Levi Jones was overweight, kind of hurt, slow and letting people by him while he picked daisies and longed for the days when Joey Porter and him could stay up all night talking about their dreams. Whitworth and Bobbie were fine. Ghiuacic never developed into anything. Stacey Andrews wanted nothing to do with the Bengals organization, and I don't blame him.

This year doesn't portend to be any better. As of right now they are making Whitworth play out of position at LT, where he has problems on the edge against speed rushers. Nate Livings, as far as I know is good enough at LG, but I don't think putting him there means our left side rushing attack is going to set the world on fire. Santucci and Cook were, according to Hob, "ready" to start last year. But if they couldn't prove themselves to better than Ghiuacic then I'm not going to put any faith in them to be any better now. Luigs is a rookie stepping into a position where people like Casey Hampton and Ngata will be lining up to consume whatever gets in their way. Bobbie's a rock, but I don't like how on the roster he's listed as a G/C. Just sounds like he could be another guy that has to play out of position when it becomes apparent that the three headed monster at C isn't working. Collins rounds out the projected starters and should be a serviceable tackle on whichever side he ends up. The depth is paper thin with Kooistra and HippopataSmith as the only real back ups with any potential to start. 

I'm not listing the Hippo as a starter yet because I truly believe he will hold out for a significant amount of training camp. He has made bad decision after bad decision since it became apparent to him that he was destined to be a lottery pick. Couple that with Mike Brown's mule like negotiating tactics and the Bengals have irresistable force against immovable object. If he does come into the fold late he won't be NFL ready considering how well it seems he trains without coaching and structure.

As of right now, the Bengals and Marvin are in an unenviable position of having to play a G at LT, inexperience at C, and potentially their best lineman will still be getting in playing shape by the time the Bengals play the Broncos in week 1. This squad may not be as god awful as it was last year but I'm not overcome with optimism about it being a cohesive kick ass unit. Especially since our most important player's blind side will be covered by a guy with very little lateral quickness. 

Let's hope Hippo signs early so that all the pieces can fit more easily. I'd be infinitely more happy about a line of Collins, Whit, whoever, Bobbie, and HippopataSmith than what it is now. 

The RB Situation

This morning Baghdad Hob unleashed a dizzyingly spun article about Ced Benson looking like the next Walter Payton. First off, we all know Ced Benson played well at the end of last year. He's a big strong runner that can pound DB's and the occasional out of position LB, but I'm not sold on him as the guy who can carry the load for a whole year. Remember, he did only average 3.49 yards/carry in his 214 carries last year. Albeit those yards were coming from behind a very very bad line for most of his games. The good games he did have were against very bad teams/defenses. His season average before he got to play the hapless Browns and Chiefs the last two games of the year was 3.08 yards/carry. I admit that what I just did is called cherry picking but ask yourself this, if he had finsihed the year at 3.08 and you didn't have the residual effects of seeing him pound on the Browns would you be nearly as sold on him?

Also, I said it before in a post and I'll say it right now, I would feel much more comfortable giving him a week by week contract, similar to how the NBA does 10 day deals for fringe players, so that he would never be able to revert back into Bears Cedric that didn't always seem to have his head right. Behind Benson are the usual suspects of Watson, DeDe, then the new guys, Bernard Scott, Leonard, and whoever else. The Bengals were complacent in the offseason to say the least. They took a flyer on Scott and added a guy with a great motor. Pop out the Champagne, cause the Bengals have a Triple Crown winning stable right there.

To help Benson at the end of the year the Bengals seemed to find the right combination of Collins, Whitworth, Bad Center Guy, Bobbie and S Andrews. This year to start it looks like it's going to be Whitworth at LT and then some assortment of Bobbie, Livings, Collins and a player TBD. (Despite all of Hobson's Mad Eye Moody nonsense saying Whitworth is a good Tackle because he frustrated Henderson so much and then Henderson gouged him, wasn't Whitworth playing LG that day?) Does that sound like a line that is going to create holes for Ced? Not to me atleast. And who would I be if I didn't give a shout out to Hob and his mad prose stylings. Take it away Geoff...

Certainly Palmer thinks it's his time, period. That baggage Benson arrived with back on Sept. 30? Aloof? Bad guy? It's been checked into the black hole of time and space.

Deadline Looms For Remaining Season Ticket Balance

The remaining 80% balance for season ticket holders is due this Monday, June 1st. 

Has anyone delivered their money to the PBS coffers yet?  Anyone waiting until the last possible second?  Anyone going to drag it out until the first pre-season game?

How about waiting to pay until Andre Bait and Smith signs? 

Let's hear your thoughts in the comments. 

And guys, let's keep it clean...we're a family website here (just not appropriate for the Brown family).

Last Time I Checked Mike Brown Is Still A Doofus.

This may come as a surprise to you all out there, but I'm not satisfied with how things are looking with the Bengals only 4 or so weeks away from training camp. As usual with this squad, the summer could very easily become another quagmire. This isn't WhoDeyRev's definitive preseason outlook. These are just my opinions, and I'm not an expert on anything besides your mom's ladyparts.

The Good

• Carson Palmer - His leadership skills are certainly healthy the way he's been talking lately. Now all we can do is pray Dr. Nick Riviera's holistic healing technique aka, rubbing butter on his elbow, actually holds up. 
• DT Situation - I say that losing Thornton, gaining Tank, and giving a bigger bulk of the snaps to Sims is a formula for good interior line play. 
• LB Situation - Keith Rivers should be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Rey Maualaga is crazy. No one is injured yet, so until that happens they're looking alright.

The Bad

• Mike Brown - Still incompetent. Pay our draft picks and get them into camp. It isn't rocket science. The more practice they have before the season starts, the better the Bengals will be.
• HippopataSmith - The chance of a holdout is holding steady at about 99.9%. So that means the big guy will be ready by approximately 2010. Fantastic.
• Chad - If he doesn't get his timing down with Carson he's going to suck, again.
• Nickel Corner - David Jones BRINGS THE PHYSICALITY, and not much else. Morgan Trent was not a bright spot on a bad Michigan defense last year. Hob said the Bengals are intrigued with him like he's a riddle or something. Let's just say they are a little thin here.
• Bob Bratkowski - Let's hope that when he "threw out the playbook" after last year he actually drew up another one. This man has got Head Coach written all over him. 

   

Baghdad Hob, I Just Can't Quit You.

Q: I'm not sure about the Smith, Whit, Livings combo. I'm not concerned about the arguments I've read elsewhere (i.e. Walker), arguing that Smith should not be a RT because you don't waste a No. 6 pick on a RT and pay him $50M. We needed the best O-lineman available, no matter the position. Plus, once here, you play your best five-man group no matter who gets paid what. My problem is that I think AC (Collins) is better than Livings and the best combo would be RT=AC, LT=Smith, and LG=Whit. AC proved he can stand up to the best pass rushers and deserves playing time. Whit has proven he is very valuable at LG because he dominates the most dominant DTs. And it's those dominant DT's that push the pocket and lead to the sacks. So why aren't they playing their best five, which includes AC? Also, Lewis said Smith will be the RT as long as Whit is here, but what if Smith proves better, wouldn't they switch it then? After all, Smith was the No. 6 and Whit was the second-rounder, so Smith at least projects to be better than Whit. --Brad B., Atlanta, GA

Hey kids, are you ready for another journey into the kaleidoscope that is Baghdad Hobson's Choice? I'm not.

BRAD: They believe they are playing their two best tackles in Whitworth and Smith. If that's what you believe, how can you have anybody else playing outside? I can see that. But my concern is you switch two guys with the move in Whitworth and Smith. If you keep Collins at left tackle and Whitworth at left guard, the only guy you switch is Smith. As you said, Collins held up pretty well last year and Whit made life miserable for guys like Justin Tuck and John "Mad Eye Moody" Henderson.

The first paragraph goes, logic, nonsense, logic, nonsense, mad eye moody nonsense.

And maybe I'm behind the times but it took a couple searches to piece that doozy of a nickname together through the google.

Follow Mikey Boy Brown On Twitter

Now being updated at a frantic (at least more frantic) pace, make sure to follow Mikey Boy Brown on Twitter.  You can find out:

- How Mike Brown is enjoying the Taste of Cincinnati

- Inside information on The Disney Channel's "That's So Raven"

- The true value of hot sauce

You can discover all that and more by following Mikey Boy Brown on Twitter right here.

Priority Sports Rips HippopotaSmith

Remember how everyone thought that story that Andre Smith was going to fire his current agent and return to the agent he had before the draft?  Remember how everyone ripped us (and others) for putting gasoline on something that was just a rumor? 

Well HippopotaSmith has fired Priority Sports and has re-hired Alvin Keels...just as he planned all along.  Priority Sports took the opportunity to release a statement that sheds a little light onto the player the Bengals just drafted 6th overall:

“In regards to Andre Smith, we are moving forward and devoting all of our attention on the high character, hard working and honest clients of Priority Sports.

“We were asked to come in at the last minute to provide credibility to his draft status and we succeeded in that task.  Soon after the draft, Andre Smith became a tremendous distraction to our company.  What we have subsequently determined is that Andre Smith does not match the culture of Priority Sports and the character of the clients we take so much pride in representing.

“This will be our final statement on this matter.”

Even Bengals.com has the press release from Priority on their team website, listed here. 

Has Andre Smith cost himself a lot of money?  It's fair to say that the Bengals might try and 'punish' Smith for his bait and switch maneuver by really digging in on his contract.  From the whole Chad Johnson situation, we know that Mike Brown and Bengals management has no problem being stubborn to make a point.  Suffice it to say that I would be surprised if Smith was in camp on-time this season. 

Look, HippopotaSmith could turn out to be a fantastic, pro-bowl left (or right) tackle in the NFL.  The point is the Bengals should have known about this and they have forfeited their right to take chances anymore in the draft, especially at #6 overall.  Eugene Monroe was also sitting there at #6...solid character, excellent in pass protection (the goal of all this was to protect Carson's blind side, right?), and many called him the best overall tackle in the draft.  I realize some said that about Jason Smith and the Hippo as well, but Monroe excelled at pass protection.  The only real knock on Monroe was that he might have bad knees.  You know who else was supposed to have bad knees?  Anthony Munoz.

There are too many people with loose lips around the league that should have tipped the Bengals off to this potential situation, and the Bengals have stated that Smith originally dumping Keels for Priority was a factor in their decision to draft Smith.  Again, this is what happens when you don't have a proper front office or general manager with contacts throughout the league. 

I know, I know.  Smith hasn't had one day of training camp or taken one snap in the NFL yet.  But, you have to admit, things are not off to a great start.  And, we are staring down the barrel of another Bengals blunder.  Players without high character, without a strong work ethic, and that are not honestly dedicated to football are players we simply can't afford anymore in Cincinnati...despite their 'talent' potential.

James Walker's Conspiracy Theory...Can You Really Argue With It?

WDR is a little confused about the Bengals early announcement of moving Andrew Whitworth to left tackle, putting first round selection Andre Smith at right tackle, plugging in Nate Livings at left guard (and unrelated to this post, putting Kyle Cook at center).  But apparently, with the 6th overall pick, the Bengals selected a right tackle, as announced earlier this week.  This is rare as most of the tackles selected that high in the draft are put on the left to protect the Quarterback's blind side. 

It's not a shock that Andre Smith would begin at right tackle in his first season but it is surprising that Marvin Lewis indicated that he would be a right tackle for years to come, and Whitworth would be the club's left tackle for years to come.  ESPN's James Walker has a conspiracy theory.  Walker explains his thought that the announcing of the move this early is indeed a little odd, correctly mentions that "With a team like Cincinnati, you always follow the money trail," and hypothesizes that it's a move to gain leverage in Andre Smith negotiations and ultimately pay Smith less money. Can anyone argue with this? Should these really be the underlying reasons for who goes where on our offensive line?

It remains to be seen whether Whitworth will be able to effectively transition to left tackle.  It also remains to be seen whether Nate Livings, a former undrafted free agent, can be an effective left guard.  Those are two large question marks on Carson Palmer's blind side.  At the least, what can be said is that the O-line has red flags all over it.  We now have legitimate questions at left tackle, left guard and center at a minimum.  Right guard Bobbie Williams will continue to be Bobbie Williams.  And although WDR is fairly confident Andre Smith can be an effective right tackle, if negotiations go sour and there's a holdout, another question mark may arise if he's significantly late to camp or we have to plug someone else in there because of the amount of time Smith misses.  While it's difficult not to like the team's offseason moves, one cannot reasonably conclude that this line does not have red flags all over it for next season.