It is clear to everyone now that the Bengals will start the 2009 season by snapping their 45-game Paul Brown Stadium sellout streak. The question is, how many people will actually be in the stands for the regular season home opener. To answer this question, let's start with the 1993 season.
First of all, let's make the following assumptions:
1) No General Manager will be hired, nor will additional scouts be added to the scouting department
2) Marvin Lewis will either continue as head coach, or a "mutual agreement" will be reached to relieve Lewis of his duties. The next coach of the Bengals will be either Bob Bratkowski, Paul Alexander (since the Bengals are terrified he will bolt for Syracuse), or someone else very underwhelming to the fan base.
4) Mike Brown remains in full control of the Cincinnati Bengals.
Following the 1992 season, the Bengals poor play finally ended their string of consecutive sellouts that dated back to the 1988 Super Bowl Season. Albeit in a smaller stadium with relatively more reasonable ticket prices, the total regular season attendance in 1992 was 413,125. That is an average of 51,640. (Keep in mind the capacity of Riverfront Stadium expanded to near 60,000 when the Reds season ended and the stadium was in full-football configuration. Otherwise, capacity was a little south of 55,000 at Riverfront.)
In 1993, the Bengals total attendance was 353,273 or an average announced attendance of 44,159.
In 1994, there was a slight bump due to home games against Miami (Sunday Night game, first ever Shula Bowl), Dallas, and the birth of Blakemania. Total attendance for the year was 415,368, or an average of 51,921.
In 1995, the attendance dropped to 385,071 for the year, or 48,133.
Fast forward to 2002, currently the worst season in franchise history. There was no hope from start to finish in 2002, so this might be the best barometer for how lean things could get at PBS. In 2002, the total announced attendance was 422,235, or an average of 52,779. That is in a stadium that holds 65,535.
Compared to the 90's, we have a few differences today as we head into the off-season.
#1, there were no COA's in the 1990's. A decent number of people who have season tickets will feel shackled by paying anywhere between $300 to $1500 per seat for their license. If you drop your season tickets, you forfeit your license. So, many fans will keep buying tickets for fear of losing their license. Common knowledge being "Well the year I drop my tickets...you know they will win the Super Bowl..." We are here to tell you that you have nothing to worry about...that will never happen while The Redeemer is in charge.
One interesting thing to remember is that when in 2004, the Bengals ticket office offered a 'Marvin Lewis special' where fans who dumped their seats at any point between 2000 - 2003 could renew their dormant COA's for only a one-time charge of $100. It's fair to say that the Bengals will do something like this again as they desperately try to rebuild their season ticket base over the next few years.
Until things change at One Paul Brown Stadium...isn't a $100 charge worth it? Instead of spending thousands of dollars on tickets for a team that puts up performances like 3-34 against he Ravens?
Face it guys. That COA is a sunk cost. It's gone, and unless the Bengals start winning again, you will never get your money back (COA's are 100% transferable...but basically worthless when the team sucks).
#2 - The economy will force fans to make tough decisions. Where the COA's will cause some fans to keep their tickets, the financial crunch in America may force fans to drop their tickets in droves.
#3 - The venom in this city for Mike Brown and his ineptitude is at an all-time high. Back in the 90's, we only had a 3 to 5 year sample size of his work. Now, we are in the midst of the 18th year of Mike Brown's Titanic. I think everyone is comfortable in saying the guy will never, ever, turn things around. As Mike says, it is a 'matter of opinion' when talking about his level of football knowledge. Basically that is Mike's opinion vs. everyone else's in the free world.
Our prediction?
The announced average attendance at Bengals games next season will be around 53,000 per game, or 424,000 for the season. The true test will be in the years to follow, not to mention the amount of club seat holders who decide not to renew their 3-season commitments. Expect to see a 'test-drive' option from the Bengals in 2009, where they do not require fans to commit for 3 seasons when buying club seats. You can also expect the Bengals to waive the COA commitments for new regular season ticket holders for a year or two...just to get them in the building.
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