Folks - I cannot emphasize enough how foolish it would be to get your hopes up for next year based on the Bengals play in the 2nd half of the year. Why? Behold, ladies and gentlemen, a statistical breakdown of Bengals wins and when they came since 1991 (when Mike Brown took the helm).
The file, for your viewing
pleasure disgust, is here: Download Bengals 2nd Half Wins
You can look at each season in the file, but here are the salient points:
- In the average Bengals season under Mike Brown, 71% of the total wins come in the 2nd half of the season (more than 2 in 3 wins, in other words)
- In 5 of the 18 total seasons under Mike Brown, all of the Bengals wins have come in the 2nd half of the season (including this year...that's almost 1 in 3 seasons where the Bengals start 0-8)
- Of Mike Brown's 101 total wins, 31 have come in November and 36 have come in December. This means Mike Brown's Bengals have more wins in December than they do total wins in the first half of the season combined.
- MOST IMPORTANT, only 1 time out of 15 seasons where the Bengals have "finished strong" (more wins in the 2nd half), has this been followed by a season where we have had a winning season. This is, of course, because we've only had 1 FRICKING WINNING SEASON IN 18 DAMN YEARS!
The point is, the Bengals start each season, for whatever reason (this will be it's own post), by putting themselves behind the eight ball. So, if you find yourself saying, "We can build off the strong 2nd half this year" you are, and it's not even debatable, AN IDIOT WHO IGNORES ALL PAST EVIDENCE. This happens almost every year under Mikey. And as we know, the Bengals have been the worst pro team over this 18 year stretch. There is no evidence whatsoever that "Bengals Strong Finishes" lead to winning seasons or even good ones at that.
Here are reasons that are valid that we may have a better year next year:
- Carson returns to full health
- Keith Rivers returns to full health
- Everyone else returns to full health
- Easy schedule due to rotation and our crappy performance this year
- We add impact players in the draft (ha! - unlikely, but we can hope)
The fact the Bengals "finished strong" by beating 4 suspect teams is not one of these reasons.