What Other Teams Do After "Terrible Seasons"

With the Bengals' next three opponents each having a 7-4 record, it is more than likely that our record will be in the range of 1-14-1 to 3-12-1.  If you think it will be better than 3-12-1 by somehow knocking off one or more of the Ravens, Colts and Redskins, please direct yourselves to other Bengals blogs or the Bengals web site itself.  Realism clearly isn't for you.  Given that our likely record will be within this range, WDR wondered just how many teams justified keeping its head coach after Terrible Seasons.  Here, we will define a "Terrible Season" as one in which the team went 5-11 or worse.  We decided to take a look at Terrible Seasons over the last five years and specifically, what happened to the head coaches afterwards.  WDR's concern is the sheer apathy of our front office in potentially going 1-14-1 and choosing to retain Marvin Lewis.  As you can see below, that potential outcome is as ridiculous as it sounds.  More analysis is provided after the survey.

2007

Miami Dolphins (1-15): Fired Cam Cameron

St. Louis Rams (3-13): Fired Scott Linnehan after Week 4 of 2008 season

Kansas City Chiefs (4-12): Kept Herm Edwards (second season as head coach)

Oakland Raiders (4-12): Fired Lane Kiffin after Week 4 of 2008 season

Atlanta Falcons (4-12): Bobby Petrino quit during the season

Baltimore Ravens (5-11): Fired Brian Billick

San Francisco 49ers (5-11): Fired Mike Nolan after Week 7 of 2008 season

2006

Oakland Raiders (2-14): Fired Art Shell

Detroit Lions (3-13): Kept Rod Marinelli (first year as head coach)

Cleveland Browns (4-12): Kept Romeo Crennel (second year as head coach)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12): Kept Jon Gruden

Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Fired Denny Green

2005

Houston Texans (2-14): Fired Dom Capers

New Orleans Saints (3-13): Fired Jim Haslett

Green Bay Packers (4-12): Fired Mike Sherman

Oakland Raiders (4-12): Fired Norv Turner

New York Jets (4-12): Fired Herm Edwards (traded away his rights to the Chiefs)

San Francisco 49ers (4-12): Kept Mike Nolan (first year as head coach)

Tennessee Titans (4-12): Kept Jeff Fisher

Detroit Lions (5-11): Fired Steve Mariucci after Week 12 of the season

Buffalo Bills (5-11): Mike Mularkey "resigned" after the season

Arizona Cardinals (5-11): Kept Denny Green (second season as head coach)

2004

San Francisco 49ers (2-14): Fired Dennis Erickson

Cleveland Browns (4-12): Butch Davis "resigned" during the season after a 3-8 start

Miami Dolphins (4-12): Dave Wannstedt "resigned" during the season after a 1-8 record

Oakland Raiders (5-11): Kept Norv Turner (first season)

Chicago Bears (5-11): Kept Lovie Smith (first season)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-11): Kept Jon Gruden

Tennessee Titans (5-11): Kept Jeff Fisher

2003

Oakland Raiders (4-12): Fired Bill Callahan

New York Giants (4-12): Fired Jim Fassell

Arizona Cardinals (4-12): Fired Jeff McGinnis

San Diego Chargers (4-12): Kept Marty Schottenheimer

Atlanta Falcons (5-11): Fired Dan Reeves during the season after 13 games

Cleveland Browns (5-11): Butch Davis "resigned" during the following season

Houston Texans (5-11): Kept Dom Capers (third year as head coach of an expansion team)

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11): Kept Jack Del Rio

Detroit Lions (5-11): Kept Steve Mariucci (first season as head coach)

As you can see, the large majority of coaches who had Terrible Seasons were let go afterwards.  Of the ones that were retained, they were either (a) in their 1st or 2nd season as the head coach of the organization, (b) named Jeff Fisher, Jon Gruden or Marty Schottenheimer, or (c) Dom Capers who went 5-11 in 2003 and was heading up an expansion NFL team in its third year.  Marvin is not in his first or second season as a head coach.  Marvin should not be included in the caliber of head coaches of Fisher, Gruden or Schottenheimer.  Fisher has made the playoffs 5 of the last 9 years, Gruden has done the same and has won a Super Bowl championship and Schottenheimer made the playoffs in 13 of his 22 seasons.  Lastly, although we look like an NFL team in its first three years, Marvin is not indeed heading up an NFL expansion team.

It should also be noted 100% of the teams that went 2-14 or worse fired their head coaches and all but one coach (who was in the first year of his contract) that went 3-13 were fired. 

WDR's Point:   When you look at the above results, what does it say about our front office if we retain Marvin Lewis?  It can say nothing other than Mike Brown does not care if we have Terrible Seasons.  It would say Mike Brown is fine going 1-14-1 to 3-12-1 and not making drastic changes.  The line of reasoning that "Marvin Lewis has put up with Mike Brown better than anyone else" cannot stand.  While that may be true, Mike Brown either believes that he is doing things the right way or does not care.  If he thinks he's doing things the right way, then obviously, the coaches must be doing something wrong and Marvin should go.  If he doesn't care...well then that analysis would have been much simpler.  Terrible Seasons require overhauls and overhauls require firing the head coach.   

Comments

[Rich]

While I agree with what you wrote, I think that the Bengals truly believe they are some good luck, a good draft pick, and maybe an off season acquisition from returning to 2005 form - which of course in retrospect was all dumb luck. I think Brown believes that Lewis is part of the equation to return to form. So, at the end of the day you either believe they are indifferent or they are naive. Maybe both. Either way, we're fucked.

[Urban Bengal]

The only thing that scares me about firing Lewis is, what POS would Mike Brown bring in? He won't go after a solid up and coming coach, he'll go after a Mike Martz or the coach from St. X. We're F'd either way, it's going to be a long off season.

[Urban Bengal]

The only thing that scares me about firing Lewis is, who will Mike hire to replace him in 2009? He won't go after a solid up and coming coordinator, he'll go after a Mike Martz type of guy. Either way we're F'd as fans, it's going to be a long off season.

[Mike Suter]

While I agree with the logic of the post and the fact that major changes must be made, Cincinnati has become a black hole for coaches. No legitimate coach would want the Cincy head coaching position no matter what it pays (and, knowing Mike Brown, it probably won't pay much). Until drastic changes are made in the front office, firing the head coach is just cutting off your nose to spite your face. Fuhrer Mike Brown and all his nepotism-dependent family members in the organization must go. We need a Bolshevik revolution!

[Luigi]

"what does it say about our front office if we retain Marvin Lewis?" It says to the players, fans, and future employees of the Bengals that medocritiy is acceptable. It also says the Mikey likes having a coach that is 'decent' and will bend over and take it from Mikey with a smile on his face.

[Who Che]

I wonder what Coach Ditka is up to. If he was hired I might have to break the boycott and pick up a Bengals sweater vest, grow a mustache and start violently chewing bubble gum. Hey, it's not like it can get any worse.

[Marquice Morton]

Keep up the good work team! Our team will see better days.

[Ocho Stinko]

Yeah I have been thinking they would see better days for 18 years now.

[doug b]

Why couldn't i have been born closerto cleveland or indy? Why suckanatti?

[Freepster]

COWHER! COWHER! COWHER!

[Joe]

I hate to say it, but they should bring in Cowher as GM/coach. What a coup that would be. His last game as a Steeler his going-nowhere team beat the Bengals to keep us out of the playoffs. He seems like one of the only no-nonsense, professional football types out there who could turn this team around (again).

[Crazy Little Thing]

If they fire Marvin Lewis, a young up-and-coming coach would be great. (But let's briefly remember that Marvin Lewis was, for several years, a huge improvement.)

The biggest changes that need to be made, though are in 1) player/personnel evaluation and 2) training and health.