It's a well known fact that TJ is going into his contract year in 2008. This means one thing: he is going to 
want the damn ball more than Keyshawn Johnson in a McDonald's Playhouse. And we all know that Chad is going to be Chad again this year, meaning that he will torpedo the rest of every game that he doesn't get his fair share of catches in the first quarter of. Being that both of these players are extremely competitive, and extremely hot headed, they are both going to stop at nothing in the pursuit of topping their stats from last year:
Chad - 93 catches, 1440 yards
TJ - 112 catches, 1143 yards
Note to both of you: It isn't going to happen this year. If the Bengals coaches have any aspirations of achieving success greater than 7 wins (which is debatable), they will HAVE to spread the ball among their many weapons on offense.
"What Weapons?", you ask? Lets examine...
We have a healthy Rudi Johnson who has "rededicated" himself to the run. We have a supposedly healthy Chris Perry, who figures to become head #2 on the double headed beast that every team yearns for. And don't forget about Dede Dorsey, Kenny Watson, and Grimace (aka Jeremy Johnson). Let's estimate (based on Marvin "getting back to the running game") that this group combines for about 480 carries (only 2.7 carries per game more than the league average.) Compared to the Bengals 416 carries last year, this adds up to about 64 less touches for Chad or TJ.
Furthermore, Carson Palmer (aka Zeus, God, Baby Jesus, whatever) is going to have a few more options in the passing game in 2008. In addition to Chad and TJ, we now have a bevy of candidates that could aptly fill the third, fourth, and fifth WR spots. (Caldwell, Simpson, Maxwell, Holt, Chatman, Urrutia, Purify). And not to mention the addition of Ben Utecht in free agency, as well as a healthy Chris Perry sneaking out into the flats. Carson will now have more than two options when he drops back in the pocket.
Mathematically speaking:
lots of receivers + pass catching tight end + Chris Perry +
rededication to running game = Chad and TJ not getting the same
production they did last year.
Speaking in terms of last year, the player ranking third in catches was Kenny Watson (52). You have to go all the way down to #5 to find the next wide receiver on the list (Antonio Chatman, 19). That is a pretty big drop in production from your third WR, by any estimation. It is going to be a different story this year.
It will be interesting to see how this year pans out, and to see if these
predictions hold true. If so, I dont think it'll be long before Chad
or TJ shows their true colors (especially TJ in a contract year.)
Maybe he will prove us wrong, and show that he is the team player that
everybody has come to know and love despite his rat tail. We'll have
to wait and see.
It warmed my heart to hear TJ talking about how if they had won ten games last year (which taking the injuries and some bad breaks out of the equation would have been realistic enough even considering the clustermess we had going on), he probably would have had 30 or so less catches and he was okay with that.
Burns me up that they haven't extended him by a couple years yet.
Posted by: A Pragmatic Bengals FAn | August 08, 2008 at 06:09 PM
Well, let's just hope their yards per reception each skyrockets since I agree that they will have less touches. That being said, I am actually not quite as worried about this issue as there is more to WR production than just catches.
The fact we haven't extended TJ upsets me mightily too, especially considering the money we are giving to others for extensions or have franchised (Smith, Andrews, Peko...). However, it is possible that TJ "The Hardest Man in the NFL" Houshmanzadeh in a contract year is a beast that none of us are familiar with...
Posted by: Sleeping With Bieniemy | August 09, 2008 at 08:37 AM